Loonshots: How to Nurture the Crazy Ideas That Win Wars, Cure Diseases, and Transform Industries
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- Create Date：2021-05-05 08:54:46
- Update Date：2025-09-07
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- Author：Safi Bahcall
- ISBN：1250185963
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Summary
What do James Bond and Lipitor have in common？ What can we learn about human nature and world history from a glass of water？
In Loonshots， physicist and entrepreneur Safi Bahcall reveals a surprising new way of thinking about the mysteries of group behavior that challenges everything we thought we knew about nurturing radical breakthroughs。
Drawing on the science of phase transitions， Bahcall shows why teams， companies， or any group with a mission will suddenly change from embracing wild new ideas to rigidly rejecting them， just as flowing water will suddenly change into brittle ice。 Mountains of print have been written about culture。 Loonshots identifies the small shifts in structure that control this transition， the same way that temperature controls the change from water to ice。
Using examples that range from the spread of fires in forests to the hunt for terrorists online， and stories of thieves and geniuses and kings， Bahcall shows how this new kind of science helps us understand the behavior of companies and the fate of empires。 Loonshots distills these insights into lessons for creatives， entrepreneurs， and visionaries everywhere。
In Loonshots， physicist and entrepreneur Safi Bahcall reveals a surprising new way of thinking about the mysteries of group behavior that challenges everything we thought we knew about nurturing radical breakthroughs。
Drawing on the science of phase transitions， Bahcall shows why teams， companies， or any group with a mission will suddenly change from embracing wild new ideas to rigidly rejecting them， just as flowing water will suddenly change into brittle ice。 Mountains of print have been written about culture。 Loonshots identifies the small shifts in structure that control this transition， the same way that temperature controls the change from water to ice。
Using examples that range from the spread of fires in forests to the hunt for terrorists online， and stories of thieves and geniuses and kings， Bahcall shows how this new kind of science helps us understand the behavior of companies and the fate of empires。 Loonshots distills these insights into lessons for creatives， entrepreneurs， and visionaries everywhere。
Reviews
Apurva
，
The best non-fiction book I read in 2020。 It gives you a different perspective at how moonshot ideas emerge， what kind of set-up is required to nurture them and what are the possible pitfalls。 All of it is backed by a study of inventions that changed course of the world through wars， plagues and otherwise。
Anna Barbera
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I don't read a lot of non-fiction these days but， when I do， I want to learn something。 I feel like I could have learned the same amount in 10 concise pages as I did in 250 drawn out anecdotes。 I don't read a lot of non-fiction these days but， when I do， I want to learn something。 I feel like I could have learned the same amount in 10 concise pages as I did in 250 drawn out anecdotes。 。。。more
Tanachai Tadsanawiwat
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Like the book
Nikhil Saha
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While this was my first audiobook， my submission is this book should be read， NOT listened to。 It demands your undivided attention。Loonshots are ideas that may seem crazy in status quo- but if nurtured well， could lead to big discoveries。 But how do you build the right environment/structure/system that nurtures and not dismisses loonshots- that is what this book is about - accompanied with some brilliant examples！The book focuses on managing the fine balance between existing franchises and loons While this was my first audiobook， my submission is this book should be read， NOT listened to。 It demands your undivided attention。Loonshots are ideas that may seem crazy in status quo- but if nurtured well， could lead to big discoveries。 But how do you build the right environment/structure/system that nurtures and not dismisses loonshots- that is what this book is about - accompanied with some brilliant examples！The book focuses on managing the fine balance between existing franchises and loonshot nurseries， talks about optimal organisation structures and the right incentive strategies， and the right form of leadership to nurture these ideas。If you're fond of theories around innovation， disruption， organisation structuring， growth etc。 - this will be a fun read。 。。。more
Jose Jurado
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Super recommendable reading for everyone。 The author really makes a good job of exposing his points very clearly。 It made me reflect on several aspects of my own career and work environment。The stories he uses to illustrate the ideas are very interesting and enjoyable。Only bit of criticism: it's a tad too repetitive so I found myself feeling like I had already read the same statements often。 Super recommendable reading for everyone。 The author really makes a good job of exposing his points very clearly。 It made me reflect on several aspects of my own career and work environment。The stories he uses to illustrate the ideas are very interesting and enjoyable。Only bit of criticism: it's a tad too repetitive so I found myself feeling like I had already read the same statements often。 。。。more
Harry Lee
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Love the stories， not so sure about the generalised lessons。 Akira Enzo， Vannevar Bush。
Antony Adelaar
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A tougher read than I expected， but really thoughtful and well researched。 Nurture the crazy ideas in a way that gives them a chance。
Tasos Manouras
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I have read my fair share of corporate books that repeat the main idea over and over and provide interesting trivial information of the business world trying to justify their point。 Was happy to say that Loonshots is different。 Each chapter provides one main and practical idea and although the business stories sometimes are a bit overextended， they are interesting， the author doesn’t jump into conclusions and provides constructive insight。 The afterword is again practically presented on how busi I have read my fair share of corporate books that repeat the main idea over and over and provide interesting trivial information of the business world trying to justify their point。 Was happy to say that Loonshots is different。 Each chapter provides one main and practical idea and although the business stories sometimes are a bit overextended， they are interesting， the author doesn’t jump into conclusions and provides constructive insight。 The afterword is again practically presented on how businesses can incorporate these ideas。 It kind of lost me when he was using chemical allegories to describe states of a business but it was again enjoyable。 My main problem with these books is that they are hindsight books， draw conclusions from older stories and how things have already played out， yet they refuse to take a stance on how things will be， which corporations will stand out in the future etc。 Having said that， as mentioned above， the afterword kind of gave the book a whole different dynamic。 Practical advice that seem to be working and they make sense。 。。。more
jin jie
，
I thought this book was probably a 3。5 to 4。 The writing is simple and to the point， and i get that the author is trying to say that loonshots （crazy ideas） are important for the future。 The examples used were really informative and interesting， although I suspect that many of these exemplars of innovation are present in other books （e。g。， Apple， Pixar， etc。）。 While his writing makes sense， I'm not giving all five stars because the I got the idea of the book by the first few chapters - I read th I thought this book was probably a 3。5 to 4。 The writing is simple and to the point， and i get that the author is trying to say that loonshots （crazy ideas） are important for the future。 The examples used were really informative and interesting， although I suspect that many of these exemplars of innovation are present in other books （e。g。， Apple， Pixar， etc。）。 While his writing makes sense， I'm not giving all five stars because the I got the idea of the book by the first few chapters - I read the rest of them because of the examples。 All in all， it's still an interesting read on how to foster innovation which makes sense。 Whether it makes sense empirically is another thing altogether。 。。。more
Dionna Day
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Interesting and helpful。
Waleed Abd El Rahman
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Very interesting book and framework on how leaps of innovation happen。 It takes you through different examples in different concepts to get the message a cross。 I liked how he differentiated between loon shots and disruptive innovation in the very end of the book。 Highly recommended。
Dalan
，
A surprisingly fun to read business book with stories， historical references， and trivia that I really enjoyed getting my hands on。 The goal of the book is to emphasise the importance of group structure over group culture to explain group behaviour; and it does that quite successfully。 The author does some bold stuff like providing equations to calculate optimal group sizes but also silly stuff like relentless comparisons of humans to liquids （there are two phases and two control parameters- we A surprisingly fun to read business book with stories， historical references， and trivia that I really enjoyed getting my hands on。 The goal of the book is to emphasise the importance of group structure over group culture to explain group behaviour; and it does that quite successfully。 The author does some bold stuff like providing equations to calculate optimal group sizes but also silly stuff like relentless comparisons of humans to liquids （there are two phases and two control parameters- we get it！ but molecules don't have feelings， people do）。 This is NOT a final or path-breaking book in this area。 Overall a 3。5 but， giving it a 4 because of a whole chapter dedicated to bashing Clayton Christensen！ <3 。。。more
Evan
，
Written by a successful scientist， this book takes a fascinating approach to examination of how organizations foster innovative cultures while preserving the discipline to scale promising products and strategies。 I particularly enjoyed Dr。 Safi Bahcall's perspective。 Referencing examples across multiple industries， Dr。 Bahcall provides practical advice on how to strike the appropriate balance for any organization。 A book for the reference shelf！ Written by a successful scientist， this book takes a fascinating approach to examination of how organizations foster innovative cultures while preserving the discipline to scale promising products and strategies。 I particularly enjoyed Dr。 Safi Bahcall's perspective。 Referencing examples across multiple industries， Dr。 Bahcall provides practical advice on how to strike the appropriate balance for any organization。 A book for the reference shelf！ 。。。more
Sigbjørn Herstad
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Thegazzardian
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If you like your business books with lots of stories of businesses， including naming a dozen related characters and giving them backstories， this will be an enjoyable read。 But I can’t imagine anybody who hasn’t heard at least some of these stories before， if not all of them， if they read heavily in this genre （Steve Jobs isn’t exactly an unknown figure for example）。Nonetheless， they way the tales are told is engaging， and the author does a good job telling the tale in a way that supports his co If you like your business books with lots of stories of businesses， including naming a dozen related characters and giving them backstories， this will be an enjoyable read。 But I can’t imagine anybody who hasn’t heard at least some of these stories before， if not all of them， if they read heavily in this genre （Steve Jobs isn’t exactly an unknown figure for example）。Nonetheless， they way the tales are told is engaging， and the author does a good job telling the tale in a way that supports his core thesis。 I came out at the end of the book feeling like I knew what he had to say。As other readers have said， this book isn’t particularly scientific。 The author draws his own conclusions from the stories， but it’s analysis after the fact rather than rigorously tested theories。Still， I think the core framework presented， the idea of loonshots vs franchises， is a helpful mental model for thinking about businesses， and what they do， and his notes around phase separation and sharing knowledge are certainly worth a try。 I feel like I’ve lived in a world that may have benefited from more of this kind of thinking。And his ideas for how to slow the transition from loonshot nursery to politics certainly struck a chord with me。 I will be revisiting those for sure。Overall， an enjoyable read I definitely think I will grow from 。 。。。more
Igor Pejic
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How to cultivate the spread of breakthrough ideas？ This book is a great， scientifically-underpinned insight into the dynamics of teams and innovation。
Rick Presley
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Most business books are descriptive rather than prescriptive。 Few give us a formula that leads to actual business practices。 This is different。 Bahcall does a good job of not just covering business history （like every other business book that cherry-picks successes and failures to bang the gong of whatever mantra they are hailing） but comparing it in the context of business climate。 He includes warts along with the glowing successes and covers the transitions when things move from working to not Most business books are descriptive rather than prescriptive。 Few give us a formula that leads to actual business practices。 This is different。 Bahcall does a good job of not just covering business history （like every other business book that cherry-picks successes and failures to bang the gong of whatever mantra they are hailing） but comparing it in the context of business climate。 He includes warts along with the glowing successes and covers the transitions when things move from working to not working。 Definitely deserves a careful analysis and contemplation before setting it aside。 I know that I for one will be giving it a second look。 。。。more
Elijah Ng
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This book has the right balance of pointing out key observations and patterns through narratives and also putting rigour to its proposals by backing things up with mathematical models。
Fathiyah Azizah
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"Keberuntungan bukanlah sesuatu yang didapatkan secara kebetulan melainkan residu dari perencanaan。" （30）Suatu instansi yang berada di "zona nyaman" akan lebih realistis untuk tidak membuang dana dan waktu untuk ide-ide gila。 Di bahasan pertama， tentang perang dunia。 Sekutu sudah kalah banyak di persenjataan。 Lembaga militer jelas lebih fokus mengusahakan jumlah senjata daripada penelitian sains yang tak terlihat nyata。 Nah， di sini， Vannevar Bush menggunakan strategi yang oleh penulis masuk ke "Keberuntungan bukanlah sesuatu yang didapatkan secara kebetulan melainkan residu dari perencanaan。" （30）Suatu instansi yang berada di "zona nyaman" akan lebih realistis untuk tidak membuang dana dan waktu untuk ide-ide gila。 Di bahasan pertama， tentang perang dunia。 Sekutu sudah kalah banyak di persenjataan。 Lembaga militer jelas lebih fokus mengusahakan jumlah senjata daripada penelitian sains yang tak terlihat nyata。 Nah， di sini， Vannevar Bush menggunakan strategi yang oleh penulis masuk ke dalam aturan fisika， "Peralihan Fase"。 Apa itu？ Dijelaskan di buku ini dengan detail plus ilustrasi。 Nah yang pernah nonton Start-up bakal suka dengan buku ini。 Strategi itu pula yang digunakan oleh Vail， pendiri Bell Telephone Laboratories。 Penulis pun mengaitkan gagalnya Steve Job selama masa-masa awal di Apple dengan strategi Bush-Vail。 Buku ini dibagi 3 bab: Perancang Keberuntungan; Teori Mengenai Perubahan Yang Tiba-Tiba; dan Induk dari Semua Loonshot。 Penulis menganalisa fakta dibalik habisnya Perang Dunia， seluk beluk perkembangan teknologi， kemerosotan bisnis bergengsi， sampai jatuh bangunnya Pengobatan Medis。 Loonshot， inilah yang menjadi gagasan dasar penulis， awal mula dari terobosan-terobosan yang kita rasakan saat ini。 Ide gila yang sangat rapuh， terlebih menuai kegagalan berkali-kali。 Apa dan bagaimana Loonshot bisa sangat berperan？ Apa beda keras kepala dan kegigihan？ Apa beda Loonshot dengan Disrupsi？Buku bisnis-ekonomi， berjudul Loonshot ini， dinarasikan oleh penulis jauh dari kesan buku teks kaku。 Ada saat serius juga humoris。 Penjelasannya pun bagi aku yang awam， masih masuk， penulis menggunakan analogi yang kita temui sehari-hari， mulai dari kemacetan sampai pernikahan ala kisah novel jane austen。 Gagasannya menarik ditambah ilustrasi di setiap bahasan， pengalaman membaca jadi makin mengesankan。 Pemberian judul pada subbabnya pun unik， diantaranya: Jamur tidak bisa lari; Hitunglah anak panah yang menancap di bokong Anda; Dari ikan cerdas hingga ponsel pintar， dll。 Benar memang kata Daniel Kahneman， di buku ini ada sejarah memikat， analisis yang meyakinkan dan gagasan baru。 。。。more
Deepak Sharma
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Very interesting。。。worth the time
Rainier Moreno-Lacalle
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Inspiring
Areg Gevorgyan
，
Just great！ One of the best business books for the last year。 Very structured thinking and storytelling。 Would recommend to anyone working in innovations， tech or non-tech。
Sulhan Habibi
，
Awalnya skeptis susah baca buku ini， tapi begitu udah masuk ke tulisannya ternyata aku menikmatinya。 Suka。 Banyak info-info yang baru aku tahu。
Kyle
，
This is a wonderful addition to anyone's library who wants to understand how to make organizations more innovative， and how to keep them that way。 Maybe I have a soft spot for a physicist's way of expressing ideas， but I thought Bahcall did an excellent job of explaining how one can think about this idea， come up with a model that can be tested， and then translate the model into real-world terms。 Bahcall also does a great job of motivating the model with real-world applications and stories。 His This is a wonderful addition to anyone's library who wants to understand how to make organizations more innovative， and how to keep them that way。 Maybe I have a soft spot for a physicist's way of expressing ideas， but I thought Bahcall did an excellent job of explaining how one can think about this idea， come up with a model that can be tested， and then translate the model into real-world terms。 Bahcall also does a great job of motivating the model with real-world applications and stories。 His suggestions are summarized at the beginning and the end of the book in very clear bullet points， as well。 I thought his explanations of phase transitions and linking them to the many real world applications was done excellently and in such a way that anyone should be able to understand it。 （That is， while there is an equation， it is thoroughly explained so you don't need much mathematical sophistication to understand any of the book。） Bahcall also considers his model for nations， and comes up with a novel and plausible （though certainly not proven） explanation that may be part of the reason why science exploded in Europe during the Renaissance， and not elsewhere in the world。Overall， I would certainly recommend it to anyone。 I think it will get people to think about what they want from their department/company/nation， and how they can use structural organization to help achieve those aims。 [My only minor complaint is that I felt Bahcall is often too dismissive toward "fundamental physics"。 While I appreciate that having many particles is different than a single particle， I think "fundamental physicists" would agree and are usually quite willing to admit this。 They would also readily agree that fundamental doesn't mean "more important"。] 。。。more
Byron Edgington
，
Here we have a book delving into 'phase separation，' and 'dynamic equilibrium，' and the Bush-Vail theory， in other words， a book that promises to be technical。。。and is。 But it also explains why society moves forward once we get out of our own way， and let the lunatics have their chances。Loonshot launchers don't seem to restrict themselves to technology， either。 The author ranges over several disciplines & characters: Tycho Brahe， Copernicus， Vannevar Bush， Theodore Vail， WW-2 and the transistor， Here we have a book delving into 'phase separation，' and 'dynamic equilibrium，' and the Bush-Vail theory， in other words， a book that promises to be technical。。。and is。 But it also explains why society moves forward once we get out of our own way， and let the lunatics have their chances。Loonshot launchers don't seem to restrict themselves to technology， either。 The author ranges over several disciplines & characters: Tycho Brahe， Copernicus， Vannevar Bush， Theodore Vail， WW-2 and the transistor， why we speak English and not Chinese， Papin & his 'digester of bones。' There's something in this book for every nerd and every geek。 It explains the difference between P-type loonshots， based on existing products， and S-type loonshots， that is strategic initiatives。 It also shows why certain companies & products once seen as invulnerable crash and burn， despite attempts by their principles to right the ship。 Pan Am is the example given。 That once proud， and dominant airline， the largest and most venerable airline in the world， failed in such spectacular fashion once deregulation came along， that industry experts are still scratching their heads。。 After reading the book， I can't say I truly understand the importance of 'Loonshots，' but I am convinced that we'd be worse off without them。 And we'd likely be speaking Chinese。 Pan Am captains once had people asking for their autographs。 That's how popular their employer was， and the esteem Pan Am held in the world。 Within a few short years the airline lost that exalted status， and sank into oblivion。 Anyone born after 1960 won't remember when Pan Am ruled the skies。 Loonshots explains how that happens， and will continue to happen， unless societies lunatics are free to take their shots。 Four stars only because the book became a bit too technical in the middle。 。。。more
Tim Gayton
，
This was an enjoyable book， suited to our accelerating technological world。 Really suited to anyone with innovating desires。 The text follows a nice progression of explanation of a loonshot， then how to set up the best environment for loonshots to grow and to be nurtured。 The historical and modern examples of loonshots really provide colour to the text， I particularly enjoyed the military radar examples and further insights into famous innovators of our time are always welcomed。 Some quotes I lo This was an enjoyable book， suited to our accelerating technological world。 Really suited to anyone with innovating desires。 The text follows a nice progression of explanation of a loonshot， then how to set up the best environment for loonshots to grow and to be nurtured。 The historical and modern examples of loonshots really provide colour to the text， I particularly enjoyed the military radar examples and further insights into famous innovators of our time are always welcomed。 Some quotes I loved 'When you question the least， is when you need to worry the most''Artists tend to hate feedback from suits or marketers， or anyone outside their species， but they welcome it from thoughtful peers。''The desire to protect competitive secrets， as research has become increasingly fast paced， the double bonus of Open innovation， especially the long term gain of a more nimble organisation， now outweighs the closed， more secretive model。''Celebrate results， not rank。' 。。。more
Helen Burbank
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An absolute must read for anyone exploring innovation
Izalette
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This review has been hidden because it contains spoilers。 To view it， click here。 The loonshot phase was when the real breakthroughs were discovered。 The franchise phase was when those breakthroughs were rolled out with multiple uses and iterations。P-Type – a breakthrough in productS-Type – a breakthrough in strategyGarry Kasparov:1。 an outcome mindset to analyze why a project2。 a system mindset to probe the decision-making process behind a failureCompanies need to create incentives to nurture loonshots。 Nokia was very successful between 1970-2000s， inventing the first cellul The loonshot phase was when the real breakthroughs were discovered。 The franchise phase was when those breakthroughs were rolled out with multiple uses and iterations。P-Type – a breakthrough in productS-Type – a breakthrough in strategyGarry Kasparov:1。 an outcome mindset to analyze why a project2。 a system mindset to probe the decision-making process behind a failureCompanies need to create incentives to nurture loonshots。 Nokia was very successful between 1970-2000s， inventing the first cellular network， car phone， all-network analog phone and the GSM phone。 They didn’t pursue the smartphone idea because they wanted to protect its franchise products。 In 1922， two American radio scientists Hoyt Taylor and Leo Young discovered radar: when a ship passes between a radio transmitter and a receiver， the strength of the radio signal doubles。 The US military didn’t find it because they deem it wasn’t worth the time or money if a project cant yield results for in 2-3 years。 US wouldn’t have lost Pearl Harbor if they had this technology。 In 1940， Vannevar Bush started Office for Scientific Research and Development （OSRD） and helped turn the war in the Allies’ favor。 Theodore Vail created the AT&T （American Telephone and Telegraph Company） lab and invented the transistor， solar cells， the Unix operating system and the C programming language。 Bush-Vail Rules: 1。 shelter the “artists” people responsible for high-risk， early-stage ideas from the “soldiers” who are responsible for managing the already successful parts of an organization2。 artists and soldiers are equally important3。 act as an intermediary between artists and soldiers rather than trying to micromanage loonshot projectsPan Am founded by JT Trippe in 1920s as a taxi service flying from New York to Long Island but it only seated one passenger。 Trippe took from the French engines， move the fuel tanks to the outside of the fuselage and add another seat。 By 1960s， they launched the Jet Age / mass aviation and became the largest airline in the world。 In 1987， the US government deregulated the airline industry。 Competitors offer cheaper price and Pan Am bankrupted in 1991。 On the other hand， American airline introduced a two-tier pay system: employees hired before 1978 retained their old salaries while later hires entered the lower-pay “B scale。” They lower average labor costs and used those savings to buy new planes， expand the company， create new jobs and keep skeptical unions onside。 Loonshot also fails with overweening leaders who champion their favored loonshots come hell or high water。 Moses Trap – the reliance on holy leaders。In 1937 Edwin Land， Polaroid pioneered in sepia and black-and-white prints， automatic exposure， instant color printing， the SX-70 all-in-one foldable camera and sonar autofocus。 In 1977， they launched the expensive Polavisions， which also needs expensive film。 Apple launched smart phone， which superseded Polaroid。 What’s crazy is that Land knew about digital photography and even persuaded President Nixon to adopt it for military purposes in 1971。To kickstart loonshot， you need to keep asking until someone said yes。Scientific revolution = the world is governed by universal laws of nature which can be discovered through empirical observation and experiment。 For millennia， truth was determined by the say-so of rulers and religious authorities。 Shen Kuo first discovered that planets followed an elliptical orbit around the sun but funding was shot down by the ruler。 Tycho Brahe was able to convince King of Prague to be a sponsor。 My favorite is chapter 3， why did China lag behind western innovations when China had centuries of innovation breakthrough （paper， imperial exam， canon， astrology）？ Bahcall expressed that China turned inward to franchise loonshot such as the Great Wall and canal。 The British used steam engine and took down the empire。How to encourage loonshots in industry and nation:1。 Phase separation: separate loonshot and franchise 2。 Dynamic equilibrium: seamless exchange btw #13。 Critical mass: loonshot large enough to igniteIn 1900s young immigrants from Europe （mostly Jewish） jumped on Thomas Edison’s motion picture equipment and make films for common people。 They used Edison’s patent， built theaters and make their own movies etc。 Edison tried to suppress them by hiring thugs to destroy them/burn arcades。 So they moved out west where they can flee across border and created Hollywood today。 The arcades grew into studios。 。。。more
Wai-kit Ng
，
This is a well researched and written book on how to nurture innovations。 And the flip side - how innovations die。 The premise is that it is not about individual genius alone that leads to innovative companies/nations， but rather it is structural。 If we dial back a few cenuries， an alien looking at the civilisation on earth would have bet that India or China would have led the industial revolution as their discoveries/inventions were years， if not centuries， ahead of Europe。 So 。。。 why is it tha This is a well researched and written book on how to nurture innovations。 And the flip side - how innovations die。 The premise is that it is not about individual genius alone that leads to innovative companies/nations， but rather it is structural。 If we dial back a few cenuries， an alien looking at the civilisation on earth would have bet that India or China would have led the industial revolution as their discoveries/inventions were years， if not centuries， ahead of Europe。 So 。。。 why is it that the majority of the world speak English nowadays？ 。。。more
Don Kitson
，