Na własne ryzyko. Ukryte asymetrie w codziennym życiu
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- Create Date：2021-04-30 11:56:00
- Update Date：2025-09-07
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- Author：Nassim Nicholas Taleb
- ISBN：8382020224
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Summary
Intrygująca książka jednego z najbardziej znanych ekonomistów na świecie， która podważa nasze przekonania na temat ryzyka i korzyści， polityki i religii， finansów i osobistej odpowiedzialności。
W swojej najbardziej jak dotąd prowokacyjnej książce jeden z czołowych myślicieli naszych czasów definiuje na nowo， co to znaczy zrozumieć świat， odnieść sukces w zawodzie， współtworzyć rzetelne i sprawiedliwe społeczeństwo， umieć wykrywać nonsensy i wpływać na innych。
Powołując się na przykłady od Hammurabiego do Seneki， od giganta Anteusza po Donalda Trumpa， Nassim Nicholas Taleb pokazuje， jak gotowość do zaakceptowania ryzyka własnego stanowi niezbędny atrybut bohaterów， świętych i ludzi odnoszących sukcesy we wszystkich dziedzinach życia。
Autor， w sposób jak zawsze jednocześnie przystępny i obrazoburczy， rzuca wyzwanie wielowiekowym przekonaniom na temat cnót tych， którzy stoją na czele wojskowych interwencji， dokonują inwestycji finansowych oraz promują religijne wyznania。
W swojej najbardziej jak dotąd prowokacyjnej książce jeden z czołowych myślicieli naszych czasów definiuje na nowo， co to znaczy zrozumieć świat， odnieść sukces w zawodzie， współtworzyć rzetelne i sprawiedliwe społeczeństwo， umieć wykrywać nonsensy i wpływać na innych。
Powołując się na przykłady od Hammurabiego do Seneki， od giganta Anteusza po Donalda Trumpa， Nassim Nicholas Taleb pokazuje， jak gotowość do zaakceptowania ryzyka własnego stanowi niezbędny atrybut bohaterów， świętych i ludzi odnoszących sukcesy we wszystkich dziedzinach życia。
Autor， w sposób jak zawsze jednocześnie przystępny i obrazoburczy， rzuca wyzwanie wielowiekowym przekonaniom na temat cnót tych， którzy stoją na czele wojskowych interwencji， dokonują inwestycji finansowych oraz promują religijne wyznania。
Reviews
Mayur Ghatge
，
Some really nice ideas to ponder upon but Taleb doesnt delve deep into them to explain or justify his statements。 If you havent followed Taleb from before， this book will end up feeling like a rant where he keeps on insulting other thinkers/academicians in the book。 Otherwise you know what to expect and you can skim through the ideas ignoring the rants or maybe laughing at his arrogance while going through。 This book is more like his twitter feed compiled in a form of a book。 So recommend follow Some really nice ideas to ponder upon but Taleb doesnt delve deep into them to explain or justify his statements。 If you havent followed Taleb from before， this book will end up feeling like a rant where he keeps on insulting other thinkers/academicians in the book。 Otherwise you know what to expect and you can skim through the ideas ignoring the rants or maybe laughing at his arrogance while going through。 This book is more like his twitter feed compiled in a form of a book。 So recommend following him on twitter where he anyway puts out the ideas mixed with all the rants instead of spending time and money on this one。 Lol。 。。。more
Nic Ryan
，
I am convinced the author thinks he is omnipotent。
Gabriel
，
Taleb is a fascinating thinker and it is very much worth reading his books。 I can't bring myself to give this book five stars for two reasons - one， it is a bit fluffier than some of his other work （by which I mean， there are only a handful of core ideas here， and most of them appear in previous books， and he puts a lot of extra words around them）， and two， I find Taleb difficult to read because he is just so smug。 He's smarter than you。 He's smarter than everyone。 He can't believe he has to dei Taleb is a fascinating thinker and it is very much worth reading his books。 I can't bring myself to give this book five stars for two reasons - one， it is a bit fluffier than some of his other work （by which I mean， there are only a handful of core ideas here， and most of them appear in previous books， and he puts a lot of extra words around them）， and two， I find Taleb difficult to read because he is just so smug。 He's smarter than you。 He's smarter than everyone。 He can't believe he has to deign to write books for such a stupid audience， but it looks like he has to。。。 anyway， the attitude gets old。 If his ideas weren't so good he would be really impossible to read。 （I think he knows this about himself based on reviewer comments he chose to highlight on the book jacket。） 。。。more
Leonard
，
This review has been hidden because it contains spoilers。 To view it， click here。 Taleb delivers his sometimes contrarian messages in very convincing and thought-provoking wayssome notes:- All participants in an economic transaction should know all relevant information。 （in reality there is a huge asymmetry between the seller and the buyer - this is because the seller profits from the lack of of the buyer's knowledge） Tip: Look at whether the seller would also buy the product or already owns what he sells- Few people are aware of the fact that the majority is ruled by a minor Taleb delivers his sometimes contrarian messages in very convincing and thought-provoking wayssome notes:- All participants in an economic transaction should know all relevant information。 （in reality there is a huge asymmetry between the seller and the buyer - this is because the seller profits from the lack of of the buyer's knowledge） Tip: Look at whether the seller would also buy the product or already owns what he sells- Few people are aware of the fact that the majority is ruled by a minority: This refers to the phenomenon that even a small minority of three percent of the total population， which is inflexible in its behavior， is sufficient to guide the preferences of the rest of society。- Companies condition their employees to be dependent: Why？ The sad truth is: because most of us have been conditioned to obey。 。。。more
Philip Anderson
，
It is a typical Taleb book - has a highly interesting core idea that will actually change the way you view the world。 This would normally be an immediate 5-star rating， but as usual， the Taleb writing style of repeatedly bashing anyone who might have a differing viewpoint （strong opinions sell books） detracts from the message。
Ahmed Alkiyumi
，
في هذا الكتاب الثوري الذي يسطح فيه كثير من الممارسات الاقتصادية والسياسية والاجتماعية وينقدها ويضع رؤاه الحادة التي قد يختلف معها البعض ولكنها تحفز التفكير العميق والتأمل اكثر 。1。 التقييم المنطقي هو الـذي يقوم به السياسي والاقتصادي لنظيره السياسي والاقتصادي وكذلك الاكاديمي الذي ينقد نظيره الاكاديمي في ما يقدمه 。2。 الرومان قديما يحكمون على نظام سياسي معين ليس بالمنطق الذي يكتنفه ولكن هل هذا النظام جرب كفاية。3。 إذا وجدت أن الناس هنا يحبونك فهذا يدل أنك تفعل الشئ الخطأ。4。 التقييم النموذجي هو الذي ي في هذا الكتاب الثوري الذي يسطح فيه كثير من الممارسات الاقتصادية والسياسية والاجتماعية وينقدها ويضع رؤاه الحادة التي قد يختلف معها البعض ولكنها تحفز التفكير العميق والتأمل اكثر 。1。 التقييم المنطقي هو الـذي يقوم به السياسي والاقتصادي لنظيره السياسي والاقتصادي وكذلك الاكاديمي الذي ينقد نظيره الاكاديمي في ما يقدمه 。2。 الرومان قديما يحكمون على نظام سياسي معين ليس بالمنطق الذي يكتنفه ولكن هل هذا النظام جرب كفاية。3。 إذا وجدت أن الناس هنا يحبونك فهذا يدل أنك تفعل الشئ الخطأ。4。 التقييم النموذجي هو الذي يتم تقييم فيه المستقبل وليس الحاضر الذي تقدمه。5。 معظم النجاحات التي يشهدها العلم كمايكروسوفت وجوجل وآبل وفيسبوك جاءت من قادة ومغامرون عجنتهم التجارب وتقطعت جلودهم في حلبات الحياة كما يوحي العنوان وليس من منظرين آو أكاديميين آو مفكرين وفلاسفة。6。 الفرق بين القادة الناجحين والقادة الناجحين جدا هو أن الناجحين جدا يقولون لا تقريبا لكل شئ。 。。。more
Zhiqiang
，
The book really invites deep thinking about daily activities and the intricate dilemmas we are involved。 Great insights and inspiration。
Nv
，
While satisfyingly cruel， it is also unsatisfyingly uncontrarian and uncontroversial。 Where anti-rationalism and anti-scientism used to be a Romantic knee-jerk defense， it is now the post-scientific post-rational thing to do， so neither his primary contentions nor the strawman arguments that explicate them are too thought provoking。 Still， what iconoclasm the content of the book aims at and fails to achieve， ending up being just another post on r/unpopularopinion ie a very popular opinion， the g While satisfyingly cruel， it is also unsatisfyingly uncontrarian and uncontroversial。 Where anti-rationalism and anti-scientism used to be a Romantic knee-jerk defense， it is now the post-scientific post-rational thing to do， so neither his primary contentions nor the strawman arguments that explicate them are too thought provoking。 Still， what iconoclasm the content of the book aims at and fails to achieve， ending up being just another post on r/unpopularopinion ie a very popular opinion， the glorious ill-tempered tone manages very nicely instead。 Because while it is unimpressive to see the lines of reasoning he uses to prove the myopia of science and reason， none of which are viewpoints not held by some scientist already， it is nonetheless instructive that his belligerent tone is certainly one not held by any academic or non-fiction writer。 Regardless of what synthetic knowledge comes out of his impoliteness， what rings really true is the idea that the weak sophistry that will only remain unpunished without skin in the game also tends to punish that which isn't equivocal， cloaked and containing multiple fire exits。 His delicious meanness is the literary equivalent of skin in the game， and makes possible attacks like those against Susan Sontag， Steven Pinker and Richard Thaler， unthinkable and non-credible in the hands and mind of a less courageous writer of ideas and liver of life。 Of course there is nothing particularly original about insulting polemics， but what separates this from a ranty blog is the concept of Incerto， a guiding principle executed in a coherent life experiment informing the philosophy of NNT， one that renders his tone the most consistent and logical choice of genre for the particular story being told。 I just wish he had a more insightful story。NotesGreek Rhodian Law of Synkyndineo: taking risks together。 Fear the mendicant who wants nothing。 Gyrovagues， wandering monks， denounced by all Christian intelligentsia， including Benedict， Augustine。While contractors are cheaper， companies buy dependability through employees， who give up their freedom in return。 To perpetuate corporate slavery， require long-term reeducation of middle class ambitions。 English ‘manners’ foisted on working class to domesticate them。 Levant Christians support Putin， rebirth of Byzantium， since Catherine rescued Crimea from Sunni Ottomans。 Static vs Dynamic inequality: US more unequal than Europe， but more mobile。 So 10% Americans will spend atleast 1 year in top 1%。 50% will spend at least 1 year in top 10%。 Ergodicity: If income distribution is 60% middle class， 29% blue collar， 10% upper class， 1% super-rich， perfect ergodicity when each person spends 60% of their life in middle class， 29% in BC etc。 Instead， we have Absorption， rich stay rich， poor stay poor。 Lindy effect: ages in reverse， ie life expectancy increases with time。 Broadway plays。 Crocs / Turtles have 40 more years at age 20， and at age 40 still have 40 more years。 How？Executives are not entrepreneurs， supposed to look like actors。 The ‘systemic problem’ argument: I will save someone from drowning only if everyone else also saves others from drowningLindy Effect and Virtue Signaling: Matthew 6 - be careful not to practice your righteousness in front of others to be seen by them。 Cicer’s esse quam videri: to be， or to be seen as such vs Machiavelli videri quam esse: show rather than be。Historians and policy scholars are glorified journalists who allow themselves to be boring in order to be taken seriously。 But being boring doesn’t make them scientists， and fact-checking doesn’t make them empirical。 。。。more
Pedro Macedo De Souza
，
Awesome book by one of the most brilliant authors I know。 Nassim Taleb is one of the brightest thinkers of this era and with this book he made it clear : "We do not understand Risk and it's cost"。 & "Do not trust someone who doesn't have skin in the game"。 Awesome book by one of the most brilliant authors I know。 Nassim Taleb is one of the brightest thinkers of this era and with this book he made it clear : "We do not understand Risk and it's cost"。 & "Do not trust someone who doesn't have skin in the game"。 。。。more
Kenneth Bernoska
，
Word soup served in a lead bowl。 Fat Tony approved copy on every page！ 💀💩
Tom Schulte
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More Taleb wry and enlightening observations with belittling， crude attacks。 （What is this about slamming someone as "low-testosterone"？） He-man risk assessor Taleb really takes aim at the worst aspects of the unfair American capitalism in this book， using as an example a former United States Secretary of the Treasury:Robert Rubin， a former Secretary of the United States Treasury， one of those who sign their names on the banknote you just used to pay for coffee， collected more than $120 million More Taleb wry and enlightening observations with belittling， crude attacks。 （What is this about slamming someone as "low-testosterone"？） He-man risk assessor Taleb really takes aim at the worst aspects of the unfair American capitalism in this book， using as an example a former United States Secretary of the Treasury:Robert Rubin， a former Secretary of the United States Treasury， one of those who sign their names on the banknote you just used to pay for coffee， collected more than $120 million in compensation from Citibank in the decade preceding the banking crash of 2008。 When the bank， literally insolvent， was rescued by the taxpayer， he didn’t write any check—he invoked uncertainty as an excuse。 Heads he wins， tails he shouts “Black Swan。” Nor did Rubin acknowledge that he transferred risk to taxpayers: Spanish grammar specialists， assistant schoolteachers， supervisors in tin can factories， vegetarian nutrition advisors， and clerks for assistant district attorneys were “stopping him out，” that is， taking his risks and paying for his losses。 But the worst casualty has been free markets， as the public， already prone to hating financiers， started conflating free markets and higher order forms of corruption and cronyism， when in fact it is the exact opposite: it is government， not markets， that makes these things possible by the mechanisms of bailouts。 It is not just bailouts: government interference in general tends to remove skin in the game。The good news is that in spite of the efforts of a complicit Obama administration that wanted to protect the game and the rent-seeking bankers，*3 the risk-taking business started moving toward small independent structures known as hedge funds。 The move took place mostly because of the overbureaucratization of the system as paper shufflers （who think work is mostly about paper shuffling） overburdened the banks with rules—but somehow， in the thousands of pages of additional regulations， they avoided considering skin in the game。 In the decentralized hedge fund space， on the other hand， owner-operators have at least half of their net worth in the funds， making them relatively more exposed than any of their customers， and they personally go down with the ship。 He also details real problems with the data analysis of others， including Steven Pinker which he explains in some convincing details， such as historical inflation of war casualties to undercut the arguments of The Better Angels of Our Nature: Why Violence Has Declined。 。。。more
Guillaume Servos
，
Un excellent livre qui rentre dans la catégorie des livres "à relire"。 Après， je n'aurai pas la prétention de dire que j'ai tout compris。 Un excellent livre qui rentre dans la catégorie des livres "à relire"。 Après， je n'aurai pas la prétention de dire que j'ai tout compris。 。。。more
Mahdi
，
Fantastic and brave
Jiliac
，
Taleb is definitely my favorite author at this point。 He understands deeply theoretical point while maintaining a strong focus on the practical， the useful。 If this book was to be summarized in a single sentence， it would "your usual technocrat is dumb"。 Their thought model over rely on untested theories。 Taleb calls it "Intelligencia"。 Hard to go more into the details because all of Taleb books are so deep。 Although the conclusions are great， reading them is more about his thought process: alwa Taleb is definitely my favorite author at this point。 He understands deeply theoretical point while maintaining a strong focus on the practical， the useful。 If this book was to be summarized in a single sentence， it would "your usual technocrat is dumb"。 Their thought model over rely on untested theories。 Taleb calls it "Intelligencia"。 Hard to go more into the details because all of Taleb books are so deep。 Although the conclusions are great， reading them is more about his thought process: always based on what proves useful in the real-world。 。。。more
Jaime Barcenas
，
Quien realmente se juega la piel？Un interesante libro que desmenuza muchas de las actividades y labores de personajes para demostrar el valor de lo que significa dar más allá de lo normal。 Para jugarse la piel
David
，
I'm fan of Antifragile， Black Swan and Fooled By Randomness and generally like his writings。 I think Skin in the game was his first book that I didn't finish because I think the main idea was repeated over and over with new examples and nuances that I wasn't sure if it'd add much after a certain point。 He talks about having skin in the game or somehow being tied to consequences of your actions or decisions。 Academics， analysts， and theorists don't have a skin in the game。 Whatever happens， they I'm fan of Antifragile， Black Swan and Fooled By Randomness and generally like his writings。 I think Skin in the game was his first book that I didn't finish because I think the main idea was repeated over and over with new examples and nuances that I wasn't sure if it'd add much after a certain point。 He talks about having skin in the game or somehow being tied to consequences of your actions or decisions。 Academics， analysts， and theorists don't have a skin in the game。 Whatever happens， they are not directly impacted and don't pay the price。 They can just move to the next thing。 Entrepreneurs， farmers， warriors have skin in the game for obvious reasons。He gives credit to those who do and advises to not listen to those who don't。 I get the idea but don't want to read hundreds of pages of it。 。。。more
Ar
，
this pretty good his ranting tone can get kinda cringe especiaply when he just go pubcel ？？
ANGELO GREGORIO
，
Superb
Georgi Pachov
，
Some interesting insights and lots of points I generally agree on。Fascinating read in some chapters， but slow drag full of references I didn't need or care about in others。 Belongs to the shelf 'Will read， but won't recommend' as it probably won't be for everyone's taste。 Some interesting insights and lots of points I generally agree on。Fascinating read in some chapters， but slow drag full of references I didn't need or care about in others。 Belongs to the shelf 'Will read， but won't recommend' as it probably won't be for everyone's taste。 。。。more
Drew
，
This is garbage。 I mean， sure， he's got some credentials， I guess？ But honestly it's hard to believe any of it。 His Wikipedia page reads like he wrote it himself， in the very same megalomaniacal style that he wrote this book。 Your time is better spent on other endeavors。 This is garbage。 I mean， sure， he's got some credentials， I guess？ But honestly it's hard to believe any of it。 His Wikipedia page reads like he wrote it himself， in the very same megalomaniacal style that he wrote this book。 Your time is better spent on other endeavors。 。。。more
Leib Mitchell
，
4。0 out of 5 stars 500 words per day pulled into a whole book is what this feels like。Reviewed in the United States on March 4， 2018Verified PurchaseThis author puts me in mind of a lot of people that I have read before， in that he is someone who worked around real people and he draws his conclusions and theories from actual experience。For the record， the authors whose work this echoes are:1。 Eric Hoffer。 The True Believer: Thoughts on the Nature of Mass Movements （Perennial Classics）2。 Thomas S 4。0 out of 5 stars 500 words per day pulled into a whole book is what this feels like。Reviewed in the United States on March 4， 2018Verified PurchaseThis author puts me in mind of a lot of people that I have read before， in that he is someone who worked around real people and he draws his conclusions and theories from actual experience。For the record， the authors whose work this echoes are:1。 Eric Hoffer。 The True Believer: Thoughts on the Nature of Mass Movements （Perennial Classics）2。 Thomas Sowell。 Knowledge And Decisions by Thomas Sowell （1996-10-04） 。 Intellectuals and Society: Revised and Expanded Edition3。 Ernest Van Den Haag。 The Jewish MystiqueIt also feels like the author is someone who likes to write 500 words per day about something or another and that he pulled a selected listing of a huge number of essays into one book （and shelved the rest）。There are whole people/ classes of people that he never gets tired of abusing:1。 Hillary Clinton （a corrupt career politician）2。 Steven Pinker （a statistical incompetent）3。 Robert Rubin。（a corrupt politician who transferred his losses to everyone else and came away with hundreds of millions）。4。 Academic economists。Verdict: Worth the time。 Not quite worth the new price。 。。。more
Madison Zhang
，
Offer a new perspective of many of my familiar topics。Very refreshing ！
Ardhi Listyar
，
Ancient wisdom， ethics， and properties of risk。 Typical Taleb。
Arsene
，
Regardless of my rating， in many ways， this book cannot and should not yet be reviewed。 It would be an insult to it （and all other books in the Incerto） to write a review without first practicing what is in it in daily life。 For an ordinary guy like me， this means I will re-read the Incerto again and again while I practice the lessons within。 Only time will tell if I wasted my efforts and only then can a proper review be written。
Adam Georgiou
，
Interesting: the minority rule， lindy effect。Less interesting: shit talking， wrapping up explanations in wit and attempted epigrams， obscuring those explanation's point for the sake of。。。 Interesting: the minority rule， lindy effect。Less interesting: shit talking， wrapping up explanations in wit and attempted epigrams， obscuring those explanation's point for the sake of。。。 。。。more
Satar Mahmoudi
，
ایده نام گذاری کتاب شاید دهشتناک باشد！ اشاره ایست به کندن پوست سیسامنس، قاضی رشوه گیر دوره کمبوجیه با قوی سیاه انتظار یک غافلگیری جدید از طالب داشتم که تا حدود خوبی محقق شد، نسیم طالب و کتابش برای من یادآور سعدی است با گلستان و بوستانش！البته نمیدانم به لحاظ فرمی آن سجع و سلاست سعدی را در انگلیسی دارد یا نه، ولی برای من حرف هایش جذاب، تامل برانگیز و انگیزاننده برای مطالعه بیشتر بود。
Szabolcs Máj
，
I tried to tackle yet another NNT book and I could almost finish it。 The only one I could completely finish was fooled by randomness。 This doesn't mean that the book was bad （4 stars for me）， but the style of NNT is often very different from what I'd consider "digestible"。The key concept of having skin in the game had an everlasting effect on me， so that's 5 stars。 On the other side， the topics and their presentations are so all over the place and seemingly random that the whole book feels like I tried to tackle yet another NNT book and I could almost finish it。 The only one I could completely finish was fooled by randomness。 This doesn't mean that the book was bad （4 stars for me）， but the style of NNT is often very different from what I'd consider "digestible"。The key concept of having skin in the game had an everlasting effect on me， so that's 5 stars。 On the other side， the topics and their presentations are so all over the place and seemingly random that the whole book feels like a collection of blog posts stitched together， sprinkled with some extra random things here and there。 There are quite a few remarkable observations made by NNT which sometimes makes you go "Hmmmm。 I highlight that and make a poster out of it for my grandchildren"。 Other times it's like "GTFO NNT with that nonsense"。So， who should read it？ If you liked the other NNT books， you'll like this too。 If you've never read any of them， try it out。 If you feel the same as me， skim it through and extract the most important thoughts about why having skin in the game is profound and necessary for everyone。 。。。more
Loni
，
Taleb is as always thought provoking and original。 I am always looking for a modern thinker who isn't groveling at the feet of current cultural group think。 We need more original thinkers who aren't afraid of being attacked。 This is the kind of book that you will want to re-read。 Warning: Taleb has an abrasive and pompous style。 I think he does a lot of it tongue in cheek。 I find myself guffawing many times at his impertinence。 Taleb is as always thought provoking and original。 I am always looking for a modern thinker who isn't groveling at the feet of current cultural group think。 We need more original thinkers who aren't afraid of being attacked。 This is the kind of book that you will want to re-read。 Warning: Taleb has an abrasive and pompous style。 I think he does a lot of it tongue in cheek。 I find myself guffawing many times at his impertinence。 。。。more
Sugam Singla
，
The way to make it more equal is by full thing through skin in the game that is to be subjected to the risk of exiting from the 1%。 Dynamic if quality is what restores or God is at making time and ensemble properties substitutableyou can define a free person precisely as someone whose fate is not centrally or directly dependent on peer assessment。Madness is rare in individuals， but in groups， parties nations， it is the rule。People were bred， selected and compensated to find complicated solutions The way to make it more equal is by full thing through skin in the game that is to be subjected to the risk of exiting from the 1%。 Dynamic if quality is what restores or God is at making time and ensemble properties substitutableyou can define a free person precisely as someone whose fate is not centrally or directly dependent on peer assessment。Madness is rare in individuals， but in groups， parties nations， it is the rule。People were bred， selected and compensated to find complicated solutions do not have an incentive to implement simplified ones。Very few people understand their own choices and end up being manipulated by those who want to sell them something in that sense， impoverishment might even be desirable。 To put it another way， if wealth is giving you fewer options instead of more and more varied options， you're doing it wrong。 If anything being rich， you need to hide your money。 If you want to have what I call friends， this may be known。 What is less obvious is that you may also need to hide your education and learning。 People can only be social friends if they don't try to upstage or outsmart one another。 Indeed， the classical art of conversation is to avoid any imbalance as in the book of courtier， people need to be equal， at least for the purpose of conversation， otherwise， it fails。 It has to be hierarchy free and equal in contribution。 In non linearity of progress， the reasoning shows that sophistication can at some level cause degradation， what economists call negative utility。 This tells us something about wealth and the growth of gross domestic product in society。 It shows the presence of an inverted u curve。 With a level beyond which you get incremental harm， it is detectable only if you get rid of constructed preferences。 It is much more immoral to claim virtue without fully living with its direct consequences。 Charlie Munger once said， Look it would you rather be the world's greatest lover， but have everyone think you are the world's worst lover？ Or would you rather be the world's worst lover， but have everyone thinks you are the world's greatest lover？ I translate it to be or to be seen as such， or show rather than being。 Courage is the only virtue you cannot fake。 Evidence of skin in the game does wonders in Distort and distorting information。 But to those of us on the ground， the objective was to make things work and have a life not sacrifice our existence for the sake of geopolitics。 Real people are interested in commonalities and peace not conflicts and wars。 History is largely punctuated by wars， rather than wars punctuated by peace。 The problem is that we humans are prone to the availability heuristic by which the salient is mistaken for the statistical and the conspicuous and emotional effect of an event makes us think it is occurring more regularly then in reality。 Learning from the ratio School of probability one makes one of probability makes one conscious of the need to think in terms of one sided inequalities。 What is absent from the data should be taken into account。 Absence of black swans in the record doesn't mean there。 These were not there。 The record events insufficient and such asymmetry needs to be permanently present in one's analysis。 my lifetime motto is that mathematicians think in well precisely defined and mapped objects and relations， Julius and legal thinkers in constructs logicians in maximally abstract operators， and。。。 fools in words。 Simply by asking them what they think they mean by what they said。 Socrates asked this。 Hence philosophy was born as a rigor in discourse and disentanglement of wisdom notions， in precise opposition to the surface， promotion of rhetoric。 Love without sacrifice is theft。 The notion of belief without sacrifice， which is tangible proof is new in history， the strength of a creed did not rest on evidence of the power of its cord， but evidence of skin in the game on the part of its worshipers。 So when we look at religion， and to some extent， ancestral superstitions， we should consider what what purpose they serve， rather than focusing on the notion of belief。 epistemic belief in its strictest scientific definition。 In real life， belief in a is an instrument to do things， not the end product。 Our perceptional apparatus makes mistakes， distortions in order to lead us to more precise actions。 ocular deception， it turns out is a necessary thing。distortion is meant to bring out about an enhancement for your aesthetic experience。 The same applies to distortions of belief， our visual defeats any different from leading someone to believe in Santa Claus， if it enhances his or her holiday aesthetic experience， no， unless it causes harm。 In that sense， harboring superstitions is not irrational by any metric。 Nobody has managed to build a criterion for rationality， based on actions that are no cost， but actions that harm you are detectable if not observable。 Survival comes first， truth， understanding and science later。 Our knowledge of the world is fundamentally incomplete。 So we need to avoid getting into unanticipated trouble。 And even if our knowledge of the world were complete， it would still be computationally near impossible to produce a precise， unbiased understanding of reality。judging people by their beliefs is not scientific。 There is no such thing as， as the rationality of a belief， there is rationality of action， the rationality of an action can be judged only in terms of evolutionary concentrations。 You will never have an idea about what people really think， what predicts people's actions merely by asking them they themselves don't necessarily know what matters in the end is that they pay for goods， not what they say they think about them， or the various possible reasons they give you or themselves for that。 Belief are cheap talk。 It is therefore in my opinion that religions exist to inflate will enforce tail risk management， across generations， as its binary and unconditional rules are easy to teach and enforce。 We have survived in spite of tail risks。 Our survival cannot be that random。 Recall that skin in the game means that you do not pay attention to what people say only to what they do， and to how much of their necks are they putting on the line？ Let survival work it what its wonders。 superstitions can be vectors for risk management rules。 So in essence， never discount anything that allows you to survive。 How much you truly believe in something can be manifested only through what you are willing to risk for it。 rationality was forged during the post enlightenment period， at a time when we thought that understanding the world was around the corner。 It assumes absence of randomness or a simplified random structure of our world。 Also， of course， no interactions with the world。 I have found that it is practically empirically and mathematically rigorous definition of rationality is what is rational is that which allows for survival。 Anything that hinders one survival at an individual， collective tribal or general level is to me irrational when you look at belief in evolutionary terms do not look at how they compete with each other， but consider the survival of the populations that have them。 rationality does not depend on explicit probabilistic explanatory factors， it is only what aids survival， what avoids ruin， not everything that happens for a reason， but everything that survives survives for reasons， rationality is risk management period。 To take situation to take stock a situation is deemed non ergodic。 When observed past probabilities do not apply to future processes， there is a stop somewhere and absorbing barrier that prevents people with skin in the game from emerging it and to which the system will invariably tend。 It is the act of smoking that kills at a certain number of packs per year， or 10s of 1000s of cigarettes in other words， repeated serial exposure and not a singular exploit that kills this idea of repetition makes paranoia about some low probability events。 Even that deemed pathological， perfectly rational。 confusion arises because because it seems it may seem that if the one of risk is reasonable， then an additional one is also reasonable。 Ruin is indivisible and invariant to the source of randomness that we call it。 Thorpe， Kelly and Chan School of Information theory requires that for an investment strategy to be good， and eventually capture the return of the market。 Agents increase their risk as they are winning。 But contract after losses， a technique called， playing with the house money。 In practice， it is done by threshold for the ease of execution， not complicated rules， you start betting aggressively whenever you have a profit。 Never when you have a deficit， as if a switch was turned on or off。 This method is practiced by probably every single trader who has survived。 Your worst case scenario is never limited to the lossof only your life。 I have a finite shelf life， humanity should have an infinite duration。 I am renewable but humanity， not the humanity or the ecosystem。 Survival of the collective over your own survival。 the fragility of the systems components， provided they are renewable and replaceable。 It is required to ensure the solidity of the system as a whole。 Courage is when you sacrifice your own well being for the sake of survival offer layer higher than your selfish if courage is not courage， a foolish gambler is not committing an act of courage， especially if he is risking other people's funds。 The difference between successful people and really successful people is that really successful people say no to almost everything。 Anti fragile shows how people confuse the risk of Ruin with variations and fluctuations， or simplification that violates a deeper more rigorous logic of things。 I made the case for risk loving for systemic conflicts， tinkering， and for taking a lot of risk don't that don't have a tail risk but offered tail profits or little things are not necessarily risky and the reverse is also true。 Risk and ruin are different things。 One may be risk loving， yet completely reversed to ruin。 rationality is avoidance of systemic ruin。 Let me finish this book with a long Maxim via nifty versatile， no muscles without strength， friendship without trust。 Opinion without consequences。 Change without aesthetics。 Age without values。 Life without me foot， water without thirst， food without nourishment。 Love without sacrifice， power without fairness。 Facts without trigger statistics without logic， mathematics without proof， teaching without experience。 politeness without warmth， values without embodiment。 degrees without irritation， militarism without fortitude， progress without civilization， friendship without investment。 Virtue without risk， probability without ergodicity wealth without exposure， complication without depth， fluency without content， decision without symmetry， science without skepticism， religion without tolerance and most of all， nothing without skin in the game。 。。。more
Farah
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