Big Debt Crises

Big Debt Crises

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  • Create Date:2021-04-22 11:56:05
  • Update Date:2025-09-06
  • Status:finish
  • Author:Ray Dalio
  • ISBN:057856565X
  • Environment:PC/Android/iPhone/iPad/Kindle

Summary

“Ray Dalio’s excellent study provides an innovative way of thinking about debt crises and the policy response。” - Ben Bernanke

​“Ray Dalio’s book is must reading for anyone who aspires to prevent or manage through the next financial crisis。” - Larry Summers

“A terrific piece of work from one of the world’s top investors who has devoted his life to understanding markets and demonstrated that understanding by navigating the 2008 financial crisis well。” - Hank Paulson

“An outstanding history of financial crises, including the devastating crisis of 2008, with a very valuable framework for understanding why the engine of the financial system occasionally breaks down, and what types of policy actions by central banks and governments are necessary to resolve systemic financial crises。 This should serve as a play book for future policy makers, with practical guidance about what to do and what not to do。” - Tim Geithner

“Dalio’s approach, as in his investment management, is to synthesize information, and to convert a sprawling and multi-faceted issue into a clear-cut process of cause and effect。  Critically, he simplifies without over-simplifying。” - Financial Times

For the 10th anniversary of the 2008 financial crisis, one of the world’s most successful investors, Ray Dalio, shares his unique template for how debt crises work and principles for dealing with them well。 This template allowed his firm, Bridgewater Associates, to anticipate events and navigate them well while others struggled badly。


As he explained in his #1 New York Times Bestseller, Principles: Life & Work, Dalio believes that most everything happens over and over again through time so that by studying their patterns one can understand the cause-effect relationships behind them and develop principles for dealing with them well。 In this 3-part research series, he does that for big debt crises and shares his template in the hopes reducing the chances of big debt crises happening and helping them be better managed in the future。

The template comes in three parts:: 1) The Archetypal Big Debt Cycle (which explains the template), 2) 3 Detailed Cases (which examines in depth the 2008 financial crisis, the 1930’s Great Depression, and the 1920’s inflationary depression of Germany’s Weimar Republic), and 3) Compendium of 48 Cases (which is a compendium of charts and brief descriptions of the worst debt crises of the last 100 years)。 Whether you’re an investor, a policy maker, or are simply interested, the unconventional perspective of one of the few people who navigated the crises successfully, Principles for Navigating Big Debt Crises will help you understand the economy and markets in revealing new ways。

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Reviews

Tejesh

An in-depth analysis of the biggest debt crises and coming straight from Ray Dalio's pen is not to be missed if you are interested in understanding how the great economic engine works。 Fed and other central banks' role is crucial and can make a difference between a lost decade and a prolonged bubble。 I finished the book but am still left wanting for one or two morals of the story and I cannot come up with a set。 But that's probably the nature of the world。 Even after reading through detailed res An in-depth analysis of the biggest debt crises and coming straight from Ray Dalio's pen is not to be missed if you are interested in understanding how the great economic engine works。 Fed and other central banks' role is crucial and can make a difference between a lost decade and a prolonged bubble。 I finished the book but am still left wanting for one or two morals of the story and I cannot come up with a set。 But that's probably the nature of the world。 Even after reading through detailed research about 50 odd crises, you can barely improve your understanding by a little。 。。。more

Jordan Jackson

timely review of big debt crises and their net result。。 deflationary busts or inflationary busts。

Partha S Banerjee

Nobody explains economics and finance, especially macro better than Ray Dalio and this book is another testament of it。 A must read for all interested and invested into the world of finance and investing。

Tero Weckroth

An excellent overview of exonomic history。 Puts recent events in great historicalnperspective。If the US is around 80% through the debt cycle, we are about to face serious devaluation of US dollar and US assets within the next decade or so。 While this looks quite clear, the question is where will it be safe。 Gold?

Florian Bador

A phenomenal book for anyone interested in understanding the mechanics of the economy of countries and seeing crashes as "Just another one of those"。 Everything is very detailed, based on a lot of data and examples, and explained well enough for anyone who isn't an economist by profession to understand (with maybe a bit of Googling from time to time)。 From the investor perspective we always say "Time in the market beats timing the market" and it's true indeed, but having proportions of our portf A phenomenal book for anyone interested in understanding the mechanics of the economy of countries and seeing crashes as "Just another one of those"。 Everything is very detailed, based on a lot of data and examples, and explained well enough for anyone who isn't an economist by profession to understand (with maybe a bit of Googling from time to time)。 From the investor perspective we always say "Time in the market beats timing the market" and it's true indeed, but having proportions of our portfolio reflect the actual probabilities of future growth of each country (e。g。 via ETFs) can be fantastic。 Not really trying to time the market but gradually allocate more or less to each country。 And this book can teach how to do that really well。 So while everyone panics saying "OMG there a crash???" you can be "Ah finally, I've been preparing for it for the last 3 years while remaining intelligently in the market but differently。" SIDE NOTE: everyone must absolutely watch (multiple times) the Youtube video Ray made, called "How the Economic Machine Works"。 This will greatly help understand both the economy and the book。 。。。more

Rick Wong

This is a great foundational book for anyone looking to gain an understanding of the natural economic cycles。 It will provide insights into the movements of central banks and governments during different economic environments。I would consider this the primary book to understand macro economic movements from an investor's focal point。 The stock market is heavily influenced by reflexive decision making, and the indicators on how those decisions will be made are readily available。 It is impossible This is a great foundational book for anyone looking to gain an understanding of the natural economic cycles。 It will provide insights into the movements of central banks and governments during different economic environments。I would consider this the primary book to understand macro economic movements from an investor's focal point。 The stock market is heavily influenced by reflexive decision making, and the indicators on how those decisions will be made are readily available。 It is impossible to predict the market, but this book shows how it is very possible to predict how monetary and fiscal policy will react to the different phases of the economic cycle。 。。。more

Soppy

有点过誉,第一章看了两遍,讲的还算明白。

Alan Munson

Good study of why the crisis happened for those interested

Tiago Soares

Not an easy book to read, but was written in a way that's easy to understand。 Even though I give five stars to the book, because I recognize the detailed work that's goes on here, this wouldn't be a book I would easily recommend to someone。 With that said, I took away quite many things with me that made me understand debts better。 The only aspect where I was expecting more information by the author was in the book 3, where he examins a variety of crisis that have happened in many countries。 In t Not an easy book to read, but was written in a way that's easy to understand。 Even though I give five stars to the book, because I recognize the detailed work that's goes on here, this wouldn't be a book I would easily recommend to someone。 With that said, I took away quite many things with me that made me understand debts better。 The only aspect where I was expecting more information by the author was in the book 3, where he examins a variety of crisis that have happened in many countries。 In that book, it is mainly graphs for you to interpret, bit you don't have a slight denser perspective of the issue。 。。。more

Jose

A must for all portfolio managers and anyone seriously involved with the markets。 This book is a herculean effort to make the reader understand the narrative of the 3 deeply discussed crisis (Post War Germany & the 2 Greats in the US) in great depth。 The outline is a masterpiece which even uses the word NEVER to refer to policies that have not ever worked and never will。 I stress this because it is such a big word to throw around in the investments world。Phenomena are best understood at their mo A must for all portfolio managers and anyone seriously involved with the markets。 This book is a herculean effort to make the reader understand the narrative of the 3 deeply discussed crisis (Post War Germany & the 2 Greats in the US) in great depth。 The outline is a masterpiece which even uses the word NEVER to refer to policies that have not ever worked and never will。 I stress this because it is such a big word to throw around in the investments world。Phenomena are best understood at their most extreme, and reading BDCs helps anyone truly understand what is material from what is palliative。 。。。more

Max Lapin

Отец одного из крупнейших и успешных фондов Bridgewater Рэй Далио написал архитруд «Кризисы больших долгов», где в первом томе разбирает механику долгового экономического цикла。 Во втором томе затрагивает кейсы инфляционных кризисов США и Германии。 В третьем томе раскладывает целых 48 исторических примеров。Почему это превосходная книга, заслуживающая три недели подряд три рецензии, по одной на каждый том。 Потому что она раскладывает в доступный язык, как возникает экономический цикл и кризисы в Отец одного из крупнейших и успешных фондов Bridgewater Рэй Далио написал архитруд «Кризисы больших долгов», где в первом томе разбирает механику долгового экономического цикла。 Во втором томе затрагивает кейсы инфляционных кризисов США и Германии。 В третьем томе раскладывает целых 48 исторических примеров。Почему это превосходная книга, заслуживающая три недели подряд три рецензии, по одной на каждый том。 Потому что она раскладывает в доступный язык, как возникает экономический цикл и кризисы в нем, обобщает в классы и приводит логику инвестирования в каждом из вариантов событий。 Поехали。Полная рецензия здесь: https://maxlapin。com/2020/04/24/r256/ 。。。more

Kenneth Lund

A very good book to have in the library。 This is a book I will refer to repeatedly in the future and will serve as a useful reference guide for years to come。 An exhaustive set of case studies is provided。 I wasn't able to fully internalize every case study set forth, but the key principles drawn past inflationary and deflationary debt crises provide a very useful framework。 A very good book to have in the library。 This is a book I will refer to repeatedly in the future and will serve as a useful reference guide for years to come。 An exhaustive set of case studies is provided。 I wasn't able to fully internalize every case study set forth, but the key principles drawn past inflationary and deflationary debt crises provide a very useful framework。 。。。more

Alessio SMART

The first part of the book is valid。 It looks like a paper。 The second where mr Dalio explains examples of cases of the past have been mentioned, I found it unuseable in view of the current instruments and regulations that are completely different from the past。 You only have to see the covid crisis as it was managed by central banks and policymakers

Zane Blanton

I read the pdf of this on my phone which I got for free by registering on Ray Dalio's site。 In terms of the theory, it's a little basic and more qualitative than quantitative。 Also, he tends to repeat his adages over and over in bold print across the whole book which is a bit patronizing。 But the economic history is very interesting; the 2008 section is an especially good read since he knows a lot of the principal actors and can give deeper insights about their actions。 Pretty accessible to fina I read the pdf of this on my phone which I got for free by registering on Ray Dalio's site。 In terms of the theory, it's a little basic and more qualitative than quantitative。 Also, he tends to repeat his adages over and over in bold print across the whole book which is a bit patronizing。 But the economic history is very interesting; the 2008 section is an especially good read since he knows a lot of the principal actors and can give deeper insights about their actions。 Pretty accessible to finance newbies with some interesting finance history。 Also the appendix at the end is interesting but I got kind of tired of reading the book so I ignored it。 Maybe I'll come back to it later out of curiosity。 。。。more

Enrico

Very interesting read about the German hyperinflation, Great Depression and 2008 financial crisis, however it was extremely repetitive。

Nik

Mr。 Dalio, or rather his research team, have done a remarkably good job synthesizing a large data set of financial booms and busts。I feel he falls into causal reductionism in attempting to describe systemic responses to financial crises。 Admittedly, for those many states that suffer from chronic broken record syndrome, like Argentina, this analysis is useful。 If we reduce our focus to the US, my only investment concern, his analysis is of little relevance。There's abundant prima facie reasons to Mr。 Dalio, or rather his research team, have done a remarkably good job synthesizing a large data set of financial booms and busts。I feel he falls into causal reductionism in attempting to describe systemic responses to financial crises。 Admittedly, for those many states that suffer from chronic broken record syndrome, like Argentina, this analysis is useful。 If we reduce our focus to the US, my only investment concern, his analysis is of little relevance。There's abundant prima facie reasons to believe our government has extended financial promises that cannot reasonably be met。 Of course, the corporate and individual realms also contain many IOUs that will never be realized in full。 Given the uncertainties inherently associated in forecasting in an economy with America's size and breadth, and the rarity of modern financial panics in developed economies (some 75 years passed between that last two major American financial panics), Mr。 Dalio's research offers little insight into America's financial future, other than to remind us of the potential for failing to deliver as promised; the how, why, what, where and when of it all still remain great unknowns, however。Two stars for the message。 Five stars for research。 Overall, three stars。 。。。more

Armin

Wanted to like and learn from this book。 Unfortunately I keep loosing interest。 I feel it’s hard to read and explore with too few accessible examples。 Stopped reading。

Yushi Wei

Excellent recap of the past crises and what we should be expecting in the near future。 "History tends to repeat itself and those who cannot learn from it are doomed to repeat it。" Excellent recap of the past crises and what we should be expecting in the near future。 "History tends to repeat itself and those who cannot learn from it are doomed to repeat it。" 。。。more

Steven Siswandhi

A brilliant study of debt crises - Germany in Weimar Republic, US Great Depression and Subprime mortgage crisis, accompanied by detailed explanations, price graphs, what policy makes did, and best of all, newspaper clippings about market reactions。 It's as if you're back then real time trying to make decisions in the middle of chaos。 Really appreciate Ray Dalio making this kind of material free。 Bridgewater has been known for their accurate and well informed market judgments that even the top ec A brilliant study of debt crises - Germany in Weimar Republic, US Great Depression and Subprime mortgage crisis, accompanied by detailed explanations, price graphs, what policy makes did, and best of all, newspaper clippings about market reactions。 It's as if you're back then real time trying to make decisions in the middle of chaos。 Really appreciate Ray Dalio making this kind of material free。 Bridgewater has been known for their accurate and well informed market judgments that even the top echelons of US economic policymakes can recognize。 This should be a follow up to Ray's 30 minute video "How the Economic Machine Works"。 Had I come across these material earlier it would save me many hours of confusion and dogmatic slumber。 。。。more

Tuan。Nguyen

This is one of the greatest books about the financial worlds。 It's necessary to have a basic knowledge of economy and finance so that readers could feel how excellent it is。 The key to any economic crisis is the liquidity of the economy as a whole so providing liquidity to the economy is also a key to minimize the damages and help it recover quickly。 But it's not an easy job as the regulators have to deal with politics, especially the populism which tends to raise in the periods of crisis。 This is one of the greatest books about the financial worlds。 It's necessary to have a basic knowledge of economy and finance so that readers could feel how excellent it is。 The key to any economic crisis is the liquidity of the economy as a whole so providing liquidity to the economy is also a key to minimize the damages and help it recover quickly。 But it's not an easy job as the regulators have to deal with politics, especially the populism which tends to raise in the periods of crisis。 。。。more

James Ford

Very, very dry。 I expected more coverage of historical crises, but this only covers 3 crises in detail and gives an otherwise general overview of how debt crises play out。 The first section gives a description of the 2 types of debt cycle structures, i。e。 the ones that end in deflationary deleveragings and the ones that end in inflationary deleveragings。 The difference depends on whether the debt is held domestically or not, i。e。 if the borrower can print away its problems。 Dalio explains that i Very, very dry。 I expected more coverage of historical crises, but this only covers 3 crises in detail and gives an otherwise general overview of how debt crises play out。 The first section gives a description of the 2 types of debt cycle structures, i。e。 the ones that end in deflationary deleveragings and the ones that end in inflationary deleveragings。 The difference depends on whether the debt is held domestically or not, i。e。 if the borrower can print away its problems。 Dalio explains that in the end bad debts will need to be forgiven or restructured and although people don't like it its the way it always is and the way it has to be, and the sooner people get on with it the less painful it is。Part 2 gives three in depth examples: Germany 1918-1924, USA 1928-1937, USA 2007-2011。 This was an interesting section that covered the economic and political histories in depth。Part 3 gives a quick description of 28 debt crises via "simple computer-generated text analysis"。。。not very inspiring。To summarize my main takeaways: debt is people borrowing from their future selves; this naturally creates a cycle。 On top of that, debt stimulates economic activity which creates more demand for debt。 This leads to bubbles where debt is not being used responsibly。 These things lead to too much debt。 Too much debt eventually cannot be repaid。 Depending on who the debt are owed to the write-offs/restructurings can be more or less painful。 At the end of the day if debt cannot be paid there is no alternative than to forgive/restructure。 Also, America was very strong after WW1 because most European countries owed them lots of money。 Germany's WW1 loss lead to reparations which basically bankrupted them。 This was one of the things that eventually lead to the rise of the Nazi party。 I wish I just read about the 3 debt crises on Wikipedia, this was way too long for what I took away。Some fun quotes:"Historians say that the problems that arose from credit creation were why usury was considered a sin in both Catholicism and Islam。""The most important characteristic of cases that spiral into hyperinflation is that policy makers dont close the imbalance between external income, external spending, and debt service, and keep funding external spending over sustained periods of time by printing lots of money。""In 1913 a total of six billion marks circulated as currency in the whole German economy。 By 1923, Germany's entire 1913 stock of money would have jut about gotten you a one kilo loaf of rye bread。""managing debt crises is all about spreading out the pain of he bad debts, and this can almost always be done well if one's debt are in one's own currency。 The biggest risks are typically not from the debt themselves, but from the failure of the policy makers to do the right things due to lack of knowledge and/or lack of authority。 If a nation's debts are in a foreign currency, much more difficult decisions have to be made to handle the situation well - and, in any case, the consequences will be more painful。""It is typically the case that the worst debt bubbles are not accompanied by high and rising good and services inflation, but by asset price inflation financed by debt growth。 Typically, central banks make the mistake of accommodating the debt growth because they are focused on the good and services inflation and/or growth。 They are not focused on debt growth, which is what they are creating, and on whether the debt will produce incomes to service them, which is what they should be thinking about if they want to prevent debt crises。"a debt is a short cash position - a commitment to deliver cash that one doesn't have。" 。。。more

Brian Doyle

This is a very worthwhile read for any investor or anyone wanting to get a better understanding of macroeconomic crises and the responses to them。 Sometimes Dalio/Bridgewater writing can be intentionally vague because market insights are their core intellectual property, but since this book is historical in nature this is less of an issue。 It's also (unsurprisingly, given Bridgewater's resources) deeply researched, with lots of relevant data and charts, and as a reference (particularly for the G This is a very worthwhile read for any investor or anyone wanting to get a better understanding of macroeconomic crises and the responses to them。 Sometimes Dalio/Bridgewater writing can be intentionally vague because market insights are their core intellectual property, but since this book is historical in nature this is less of an issue。 It's also (unsurprisingly, given Bridgewater's resources) deeply researched, with lots of relevant data and charts, and as a reference (particularly for the Great Depression and Global Financial crisis) it's really excellent。 。。。more

Zeqiong Huang

I took macro and asset pricing classes many years ago and was confused。 Not sure why it seems so not intuitive to me and seems a lot like data mining and explanations always so ex post, and why no one sees a crisis is coming。 This is an excellent book。 Clarified many things。 Very informative to me。

Y

As Ray Dalio mentioned, the history is repeating itself。 If you cannot find any patterns of the ongoing event, you are just not looking back the history long enough。The time span to read this book is five-month。 I started to read this book since Feb 2020 and finished in Jun 2020。 There are tons of huge and rare events happening during this time period, which are drastically changing the world。 From the economical perspective, this book gave me the illusion that it is predicting what the world is As Ray Dalio mentioned, the history is repeating itself。 If you cannot find any patterns of the ongoing event, you are just not looking back the history long enough。The time span to read this book is five-month。 I started to read this book since Feb 2020 and finished in Jun 2020。 There are tons of huge and rare events happening during this time period, which are drastically changing the world。 From the economical perspective, this book gave me the illusion that it is predicting what the world is going on。 。。。more

TaeHyeok

A drastic approach to analyze financial crises。 The author analyzed patterns of financial crises from medieval ages and inferred several types of the crises。 Although origins of each financial crises were different from each other, we can find same kind of observations on theses。 For example, a financial crisis of the type 'a depression from deflation' requires a government to make a decision of quantitative easing with proper rate。 After depression, a gradual deleveraging (releasing debt,。。。) A drastic approach to analyze financial crises。 The author analyzed patterns of financial crises from medieval ages and inferred several types of the crises。 Although origins of each financial crises were different from each other, we can find same kind of observations on theses。 For example, a financial crisis of the type 'a depression from deflation' requires a government to make a decision of quantitative easing with proper rate。 After depression, a gradual deleveraging (releasing debt,。。。) makes the economy at a normal state。 。。。more

Conner

Always great to learn from the best, but can probably be better learned from another source

Francis Tapon

One reason Ray Dalio is a billionaire is that he's good at looking at the long-term perspective while others in the finance world are focused on this quarter's performance。If you want to grasp how debt cycles that last for 30-100 years, then you must read this book。It's also highly practical for understanding how the 2020s will probably play out。 One reason Ray Dalio is a billionaire is that he's good at looking at the long-term perspective while others in the finance world are focused on this quarter's performance。If you want to grasp how debt cycles that last for 30-100 years, then you must read this book。It's also highly practical for understanding how the 2020s will probably play out。 。。。more

Russ Johnston

Complex, but not complicated; not an "enjoyable" for most, is my suspicion, but quite informative and useful; particularly given the current events playing out in the world today。 Complex, but not complicated; not an "enjoyable" for most, is my suspicion, but quite informative and useful; particularly given the current events playing out in the world today。 。。。more

Mark Mitchell

Dalio has a knack for explaining complicated macro-economic concepts clearly and concisely。 In this book, he discusses how countries end up unable to repay their debts, and the actions that they can (and should) take when such a crisis occurs。 Dalio distinguishes between inflationary deleveraging (in which prices, as measured in the currency of the debtor country tend to rise) and deflationary deleveraging (in which prices tend to fall)。 One of the most helpful observations in the book is that i Dalio has a knack for explaining complicated macro-economic concepts clearly and concisely。 In this book, he discusses how countries end up unable to repay their debts, and the actions that they can (and should) take when such a crisis occurs。 Dalio distinguishes between inflationary deleveraging (in which prices, as measured in the currency of the debtor country tend to rise) and deflationary deleveraging (in which prices tend to fall)。 One of the most helpful observations in the book is that inflationary deleveraging is more likely when the debt is predominantly in foreign currency, whereas deflationary deleveraging occurs more often when the debt is in the currency of the debtor。In the first section of the book, Dalio presents prototypical long-term debt cycles leading to inflationary and deflationary deleveraging。 In the second section, he presents three case studies: the German Weimar Republic hyperinflation that occurred after World War I, the Great Depression in the United States, and the United States Financial Crisis of 2008。 In each case, Dalio does an outstanding job of explaining the causes of the crisis and the steps that policymakers took to try to resolve the crisis。 He also maps each crisis back to the templates given in the first section。 The third section is a collection of much briefer studies of many other debt crises。Dalio believes deeply that, in general, patterns repeat throughout history and that, specifically, economic cycles (short term and long term) proceed mechanically。 (In fact, Dalio has also created How the Economic Machine Works, a video that covers the fundamental forces in the economic cycle。) Though not stated explicitly, Dailo seems to have formed the hypothesis that we are doomed to repeat many of the mistakes of our ancestors, even if armed with knowledge of the past。 Thus, it is forever challenging to avoid asset bubbles, over-borrowing by powerful countries, etc。 Dalio does, however, address portions of the book to those who handle policy, making the case that certain kinds of interventions are more helpful than others。The discussion of the 2008 crisis is particularly interesting because Dalio was, at the time, running Bridgewater, one of the world's most prominent hedge funds companies。 Dalio praises most of the actions of Fed Chairman Ben Bernake, Treasury Secretary Henry Paulson, and New York Fed President Tim Geithner。 He explains in detail the (sometimes risky, and perhaps not entirely legal) actions that they took to rescue the financial system when the collapse in the mortgage markets threatened to undermine the financial system。The book provides a clear explanation of the sorts of problems that the United States and other leading economies are likely to face as debts reach historically high levels relative to GDP。 I read the book during the 2020 coronavirus crisis, which, of course, has lead to greatly expanded balance sheets and increased borrowing by countries around the world。 Though Dalio is a highly-regarded investor, the book does not target investors per se; there is no advice as to when one should buy equities, bonds, or commodities。 However, investors, especially those who invest for the long term, would benefit from Dalio's insights, as they help one to understand how markets are likely to behave over long periods。 。。。more

John Chettiar

A history book with dates and stories of all the debt crises which the world has faced till now