The Hot Hand: The Mystery and Science of Streaks

The Hot Hand: The Mystery and Science of Streaks

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  • Create Date:2021-04-12 11:51:35
  • Update Date:2025-09-07
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  • Author:Ben Cohen
  • ISBN:0062820737
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Summary

How can you maximize success—and limit failure? Wall Street Journal reporter Ben Cohen brilliantly investigates the mystery and science of streaks, from basketball to business。

"A feast for anyone interested in the secrets of excellence。" —Andre Agassi

For decades, statisticians, social scientists, psychologists, and economists (among them Nobel Prize winners) have spent massive amounts of precious time thinking about whether streaks actually exist。 After all, a substantial number of decisions that we make in our everyday lives are quietly rooted in this one question: If something happened before, will it happen again? Is there such a thing as being in the zone? Can someone have a “hot hand”? Or is it simply a case of seeing patterns in randomness? Or, if streaks are possible, where can they be found?


In The Hot HandWall Street Journal reporter Ben Cohen offers an unfailingly entertaining and provocative investigation into these questions。 He begins with how a $35,000 fine and a wild night in New York revived a debate about the existence of streaks that was several generations in the making。 We learn how the ability to recognize and then bet against streaks turned a business school dropout named David Booth into a billionaire, and how the subconscious nature of streak-related bias can make the difference between life and death for asylum seekers。 We see how previously unrecognized streaks hidden amidst archival data helped solve one of the most haunting mysteries of the twentieth century, the disappearance of Raoul Wallenberg。 Cohen also exposes how streak-related incentives can be manipulated, from the five-syllable word that helped break arcade profit records to an arc of black paint that allowed Stephen Curry to transform from future junior high coach into the greatest three-point shooter in NBA history。 Crucially, Cohen also explores why false recognition of nonexistent streaks can have cataclysmic results, particularly if you are a sugar beet farmer or the sort of gambler who likes to switch to black on the ninth spin of the roulette wheel。

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Reviews

Jonathan

4/10Humans are terrible at recognizing randomness: this is the premise of Cohen's book, but to some extent he's preaching to the choir。 The book is entertaining and fails to stay on any task for long save the task of telling interesting short stories。 Granted, Cohen attempts to wrap them all into a cohesive narrative about the streaks and perception, but some of the connections are fairly weak。 It's a fascinating book obviously, and reasonably well written。 Most of the book has nothing to do wit 4/10Humans are terrible at recognizing randomness: this is the premise of Cohen's book, but to some extent he's preaching to the choir。 The book is entertaining and fails to stay on any task for long save the task of telling interesting short stories。 Granted, Cohen attempts to wrap them all into a cohesive narrative about the streaks and perception, but some of the connections are fairly weak。 It's a fascinating book obviously, and reasonably well written。 Most of the book has nothing to do with the hot hand, and is just random stories that Cohen pretends to have something to with the hot hand。Cohen's final conclusion is bizarrely that some version of the Hot Hand exists, though his science on the point is hardly convincing。 In the end then, all this book does is kick the conversation down the road slightly, allowing the debate to continue。 。。。more

Dan Dawson

Listened to author interview on Masters in Business。 Got the gist。

Brian Sachetta

I discovered this one while listening to “The Pomp Podcast。” Cohen was on that show and presented a really fun discussion about the NBA and the Golden State Warriors。 Wanting to keep that excitement going, I picked this one up。For the most part, I thought it was pretty solid。 The writing style actually reminds me a lot of a Malcolm Gladwell book, as it interweaves seemingly unrelated stories, makes relatively mundane concepts super interesting, and puts names to ideas and theories that you didn’ I discovered this one while listening to “The Pomp Podcast。” Cohen was on that show and presented a really fun discussion about the NBA and the Golden State Warriors。 Wanting to keep that excitement going, I picked this one up。For the most part, I thought it was pretty solid。 The writing style actually reminds me a lot of a Malcolm Gladwell book, as it interweaves seemingly unrelated stories, makes relatively mundane concepts super interesting, and puts names to ideas and theories that you didn’t know had them。I do think there are some stories within it that feel slightly out of place or unfinished, however, so for that reason, I’m going four stars here。 It was a fun read though, and I’d definitely recommend it to folks who like the “Gladwell” style of writing。-Brian SachettaAuthor of “Get Out of Your Head” 。。。more

Lynn Stegner

An author desperately in need of a strong editor。He has generally interesting stories about people and events that he implies he will tie together to support the exposure/support of a "hot hand" but he never does。 This is two books: 1) a bunch of interesting short stories/essays and 2) the background of the research done to prove that a hot hand (particularly in sports or gambling) does not exist and the background of the research done to prove that a hot hand does exist。 I consider the small fo An author desperately in need of a strong editor。He has generally interesting stories about people and events that he implies he will tie together to support the exposure/support of a "hot hand" but he never does。 This is two books: 1) a bunch of interesting short stories/essays and 2) the background of the research done to prove that a hot hand (particularly in sports or gambling) does not exist and the background of the research done to prove that a hot hand does exist。 I consider the small forays into academia and how folks respond to upturning of canon to be a legitimate part of the 2nd book。So, the book is good if you go into knowing that it is really two unrelated books。 His explanation of the math behind the exposé of the does-not-exist error was well written and understandable by anyone who got past algebra 1 (no stats knowledge really needed)。 。。。more

Korey

A lot of filler, but interesting stuff。 I see whyKahneman gets a lot of clout。 Found his book to be boring。。。but Hot Hand was fun。

Jordan

Disappointing, but still entertaining。 Cohen didn’t break down the hot hand with any real framework or even really define it super well。 It was a collection of interesting stories, to which Cohen says, “So yeah, is this the hot hand??” Never took a position。

Ben

Was hoping for a deep analysis on the hot hand, discussing streakiness of basketball players, approaches to measuring it, history of streaks, sports statistics, in sample vs out of sample predictability etc。 much of cohens reporting for the WSJ is good in this regardInstead the book spends 90% of the time talking about the background of random characters whose stories are so tangential to the issue of the hot hand that I had to go back and double check why they were even in the book。 The summary Was hoping for a deep analysis on the hot hand, discussing streakiness of basketball players, approaches to measuring it, history of streaks, sports statistics, in sample vs out of sample predictability etc。 much of cohens reporting for the WSJ is good in this regardInstead the book spends 90% of the time talking about the background of random characters whose stories are so tangential to the issue of the hot hand that I had to go back and double check why they were even in the book。 The summary of the studies regarding the hot hand is basically whether they found evidence in support of it or not, with little discussion of methods, approaches, etc。 There are no graphs, no statistics in the entire book。 。。。more

Jinny

While I have read fiction pieces that I couldn't wait to finish, this is the first non-fiction which was truly un-putdownable。 I am not into sports (watching, playing, discussing), so I was all the more surprised to be very engaged in the sports scenes and stories。 The book draws stories from farming, art, judiciary, economics to make the case for a 'hot hand'。 Or tear it down depending on where in the book you are。 You just never know where this going to land。 Is there or isn't there such a thi While I have read fiction pieces that I couldn't wait to finish, this is the first non-fiction which was truly un-putdownable。 I am not into sports (watching, playing, discussing), so I was all the more surprised to be very engaged in the sports scenes and stories。 The book draws stories from farming, art, judiciary, economics to make the case for a 'hot hand'。 Or tear it down depending on where in the book you are。 You just never know where this going to land。 Is there or isn't there such a thing as a hot hand? While other commentators didn't like the transitions between stories and streams of thought, I found that style to be an interesting brain-teaser。 Will he finally 'put it all together' or will I have to? He didn't quite, but I got the point。 And it was all the more convincing because it draws from the non-sports world as much as sports one。 。。。more

Alicia

A curious book for sure because the topic is addressed and then kind of circuitously talked about for the rest of the book。 And Cohen explains that he's going to get there with all of these other stories but I was a little bored with it。 I wanted it to be more straightforward than it was。 And my takeaway is that for the most part it is in the eye of the beholder or maybe the science was above my intelligence。 A curious book for sure because the topic is addressed and then kind of circuitously talked about for the rest of the book。 And Cohen explains that he's going to get there with all of these other stories but I was a little bored with it。 I wanted it to be more straightforward than it was。 And my takeaway is that for the most part it is in the eye of the beholder or maybe the science was above my intelligence。 。。。more

Joe Scharnweber

Felt like this book was written for me! Amazing stories that take you on the adventure of this wonderful debate。 Top 10 book of all time for me

Henry Stokes

I was excited to read this book because I believed it would be revealing about one of the most psychological aspects of sports, the ability to get on a hot streak。 The stories about basketball and the truth for the hot hand made the book somewhat worth my anticipation。 Although to get to the current verdict on the topic of the hot hand Ben Cohen takes you through many other stories that aren’t necessarily relevant to the hot hand, in the way most sports fans think of it。 Regardless these stories I was excited to read this book because I believed it would be revealing about one of the most psychological aspects of sports, the ability to get on a hot streak。 The stories about basketball and the truth for the hot hand made the book somewhat worth my anticipation。 Although to get to the current verdict on the topic of the hot hand Ben Cohen takes you through many other stories that aren’t necessarily relevant to the hot hand, in the way most sports fans think of it。 Regardless these stories are interesting and well written。 Particularly, the story of the search for an imprisoned WWII hero through the use of data was fascinating。 The book takes you through the scientific process of whether the hot hand exists。 After winding its way through lots of stories that are varyingly related to the topic it arrives at a bizarre conclusion describing a mathematical anomaly that changes everything that was thought about the hot hand。 I recommend anyone struggling to understand the final conclusion to read the original research paper by Josh Miller and Adam Sanjurjo since it is not explained well in the book。 In conclusion I came away believing what I did going into the book regarding the hot hand。 。。。more

Jacob Hudgins

Fairly interesting。 Seems like he didn’t have enough to say about streaks themselves, so he started including random, somewhat interesting stories about statistics (like how statistics helped locate a prisoner in a Russian gulag or identified a Van Gogh painting)。 These are not about streaks, which makes me wonder why they are in the book。 The actual highlight of the book, the revelation of the hot hand through a statistical anomaly, was a bit perplexing but very interesting。

Andrew Chandler

Entertaining but flawed。 This book purports to tell the story of the hot hand, exemplified as a streaky shooter in basketball。 Academics have long held that there is no such thing as the hot hand, rather our minds have a problem as interpretting randomness as patterned。 But several people have continuted to research basketball and the hot hand fallacy, and armed with new data (big data), they attempt to change peoples minds。In telling this story, the author dives into apsects of Behavioral Econo Entertaining but flawed。 This book purports to tell the story of the hot hand, exemplified as a streaky shooter in basketball。 Academics have long held that there is no such thing as the hot hand, rather our minds have a problem as interpretting randomness as patterned。 But several people have continuted to research basketball and the hot hand fallacy, and armed with new data (big data), they attempt to change peoples minds。In telling this story, the author dives into apsects of Behavioral Economics, big data, and sports analytics。 It would make for a decent update to Michael Lewis's Moneyball (but not a replacement) or a companion to Michael Lewis's The Undoing Project。 Indeed, Cohen is a fan of Michael Lewis, but his book doesn't achieve the master of the two mentioned。The book suffers from what many of these accessible science books do in that their primary story gets condensed in order to keep the subject matter simple。 Too simple in some instances (his explanation of the findings of a technical paper important to the book forced me to find the paper online to fill in the missing pieces)。 So other topics are pulled into the fray to pad the book, chapters like magazie articles revolving around a central subject。 So instead of just basketball and the hot hand, we get discussions of the productivce periods of Shakespeare and Van Gogh (which were ridiculously identified as hot hand periods so that they seemed relevent), the Visa troubles of an Iraqi artist (to teach us about randomness) and a great story about using big data to uncover the whereabouts of a Swedish man who saved thousands of Jewish lives during World War II only to be imprisioned and forgotten by the Russians。 Oh yeah, and a story about the creater of the game NBA Jam because of the unforgettable "He's on Fire" catch-phrase。All entertaining, unnecessary stuff that takes away from the hot hand plot。 And then theres the classic twisting of events to make for a better story。 For instance a blog post on the Hot Hand that the author claims was full on scathing internet criticisms only has 118 comments, most of them very academic, thoughtful, and hospitable。 And Cohen gives the Golden State Warriors credit for introducing the "only 3s and layouts" strategy to the NBA, when the Rockets popularized this (as was mentioned in the Michael Lewis The Undoing Project book)。 Its a fine book but was hoping for a bit more。 。。。more

John

I’m a big fan of Ben Cohen’s writing generally, so it didn’t come as a surprise that I enjoyed this book。 I do really want to go back and read some of the source material as well。 (The original article about Raoul Wallenberg sounds fascinating and I want to listen to some music by Rebecca Clarke。) I definitely believe that people see patterns in data that don’t exist all the time, so that piece of this tale really played into my personal biases as well。

Jennifer Bernauer

Audible from the library that I really enjoyed。 If you are a sports fan。 Specifically basketball sports fan you will enjoy。 Book written by talented wash post Ben Cohen。 Concept of the book is the hot hand real ? Many many studies in the bast have proven the hot hand is not real and through sports Ben gets us to maybe consider otherwise。 When your show people randomness often people don’t believe。 People see patterns where there are none How he uses the warriors and steph curry and bob Myers I l Audible from the library that I really enjoyed。 If you are a sports fan。 Specifically basketball sports fan you will enjoy。 Book written by talented wash post Ben Cohen。 Concept of the book is the hot hand real ? Many many studies in the bast have proven the hot hand is not real and through sports Ben gets us to maybe consider otherwise。 When your show people randomness often people don’t believe。 People see patterns where there are none How he uses the warriors and steph curry and bob Myers I loved these parts of the book。 I have been in enough gyms, watched enough basketball, played in enough pick up games to know and believe that the hot hand is a thing 。。。。why is that ? This book gets you thinking。 Confidence, circumstances。 Environment。 In basketball the importance of the passer。 Lots of stories woven through。 I didn’t fully understand the whole art - van gough stories and how they connected。 But aside from that。 Very enjoyable。 For all my sports loving friends who are looking。 For a book to listen with your spouse。 This could be it。 。。。more

Ezra Sergent-Leventhal

meh!

Mark Mitchell

Many basketball players, coaches, and fans feel that a shooter who has made several shots in a row is "hot" and will therefore make more shots in the future than would otherwise be expected。 The outcome of one coin flip implies nothing about the next flip, but, according to the hot-hand theory, a sequence of successful shots does imply that subsequent shots are more likely to be successful。 In 1985, no less an authority than Amos Tversky (along with two co-authors) produced a paper debunking the Many basketball players, coaches, and fans feel that a shooter who has made several shots in a row is "hot" and will therefore make more shots in the future than would otherwise be expected。 The outcome of one coin flip implies nothing about the next flip, but, according to the hot-hand theory, a sequence of successful shots does imply that subsequent shots are more likely to be successful。 In 1985, no less an authority than Amos Tversky (along with two co-authors) produced a paper debunking the hot-hand theory; the data in the paper said that the theory was unsupported by data。 Studies of other sports (soccer, hockey, etc。) confirmed the finding; no evidence of the hot hand could be found。 Despite the fervent objections of athletes and coaches, those in academia began referring dismissively to the "hot hand fallacy。" The story would be just another instance of a persistent cognitive bias were it not for the fact that some 30 years later, two researchers realized that the claims of fallacy relied on an incorrect mathematical assumption。 And, so, there is now evidence that the hot hand is real。As someone who believed (erroneously) that the hot hand had been disproven, I was surprised (and delighted) to find that subsequent research showed that what players knew was right all along: sometimes a good shooter is "in the zone。" The story, then, reflects something akin to what Nassim Nicholas Taleb refers to as "lecturing birds on how to fly。" Academics have an unfortunate tendency to treat mere practitioners with disdain。Cohen tells this story with detours through Silicon Valley, farming, financial management, immigration courts, and even Shakespeare。 Some of these sidelights are more relevant to the core narrative than others, but all are interesting。 Cohen jumps from topic to topic like a novelist interleaving storylines。 The format is engaging but sometimes makes it hard not to lose the plot。 Sadly, Cohen fails to fully explain the critical mathematical insight that debunked the original debunking, but most readers probably will not mind。 The writing is breezy and enjoyable, but like a tour of fourteen cities in just nine days, Cohen sometimes left me feeling I had missed more than I saw。 But, minor faults aside, those who enjoy sports, and particularly sports statistics, will find the book both fun and educational。 。。。more

Stephen Dodson

Fun read on the much debated phenomenon。 Interesting diversions。

Perry

The hot hand phenomena, and its disproof then possible proof, is interesting, but it doesn't seem like it is enough to fill this book。 There are digressions (the book goes cold?) that are only tangentially related to the topic。 It is frustrating。 The hot hand phenomena, and its disproof then possible proof, is interesting, but it doesn't seem like it is enough to fill this book。 There are digressions (the book goes cold?) that are only tangentially related to the topic。 It is frustrating。 。。。more

Steve

Interesting topic that has been studied for a long time but a definite conclusion is still not there yetMany interesting stories of streaks happening are mentioned in the book。 The question is does success bread success or is it just randomness that the human mind interpret as seeing a pattern。 Randomness requires a large sample size but large sample can also create an illusion of pattern。 I gave the book 4 stars because after years of studying the subject, there is still no conclusive answer to Interesting topic that has been studied for a long time but a definite conclusion is still not there yetMany interesting stories of streaks happening are mentioned in the book。 The question is does success bread success or is it just randomness that the human mind interpret as seeing a pattern。 Randomness requires a large sample size but large sample can also create an illusion of pattern。 I gave the book 4 stars because after years of studying the subject, there is still no conclusive answer to the question。Having said that success often needs 2 events to occur simultaneously to happen。 First you need to have talent。 Without it you may hit the lottery just by sheer luck but it won't be a streak。 Second the opportunity must be there for the talent to showcase it。 So in the end it's a combination of hard work and luck that creates success。 。。。more

Ryan Stevens

This book is a great example of how a group of people at a certain place and time can agree on something as being objectively true, and then later on more data can come to light that will completely flip the initial assertion。 I really enjoyed this book and find it to be a bit of a cautionary tale for all "facts"。 This book is a great example of how a group of people at a certain place and time can agree on something as being objectively true, and then later on more data can come to light that will completely flip the initial assertion。 I really enjoyed this book and find it to be a bit of a cautionary tale for all "facts"。 。。。more

Sujay

Too many stories, so detailed that it loses the link with hot hand。 Also, author tends to start many stories in parallel and you end up in a maze of unnecessary detail。 Not worth 400 pages for sure。

Alex Yauk

Felt like this book was written for me。 Thinking Fast and Slow meets Moneyball。 Plus mix in gulags, Shakespeare, Van Gogh, NBA Jam, and much more。 Ben Cohen manages to weave a plethora of stories into one coherent narrative and supremely entertaining book。 Recommend if you have any interest in data analytics, phycology, sports, or history。 Enjoy!

Luke V

200 pages to tell us that it science had definitively determined that no such thing as the hot hand existed, only to discover that, huh, there might be a hot hand effect after all。 Would have been an awesome in-depth magazine article, I don't think the stories (the NBA jam video game story was fun), personalities (of the researchers), and the examples (curry) were interesting enough to justify a book。 There is a good story here about the progress of science, and the athlete/stock-picker intuitio 200 pages to tell us that it science had definitively determined that no such thing as the hot hand existed, only to discover that, huh, there might be a hot hand effect after all。 Would have been an awesome in-depth magazine article, I don't think the stories (the NBA jam video game story was fun), personalities (of the researchers), and the examples (curry) were interesting enough to justify a book。 There is a good story here about the progress of science, and the athlete/stock-picker intuition that hot streaks must surely exist。 。。。more

TJ Wharton

Fun read but no huge takeaways。

Dan Ryan

Most of the entertainment value of this book lies in the digressions, which should come as little surprise when you understand that the topic of this book is academicians arguing about statistics。 It's not a bad book, and it does convey the fact that normal people aren't that good at understanding randomness。 If you, like everyone else on earth, would feel like a tails is imminent after flipping ten heads in a row, you are not good at statistics。 On the other hand, if you are an academic who bel Most of the entertainment value of this book lies in the digressions, which should come as little surprise when you understand that the topic of this book is academicians arguing about statistics。 It's not a bad book, and it does convey the fact that normal people aren't that good at understanding randomness。 If you, like everyone else on earth, would feel like a tails is imminent after flipping ten heads in a row, you are not good at statistics。 On the other hand, if you are an academic who believes that a basketball player does not, on occasion, get into the "zone" and shoot better than normal for a while, you are not good at understanding mental states。 。。。more

TimoteO_Rex

This review has been hidden because it contains spoilers。 To view it, click here。 Intriguing topic。 Well researched。 Just, what's the point? There was no conclusion except there is no conclusive evidence one theory about hot steaks exists over others。 Should've stayed a doctorate thesis。 Intriguing topic。 Well researched。 Just, what's the point? There was no conclusion except there is no conclusive evidence one theory about hot steaks exists over others。 Should've stayed a doctorate thesis。 。。。more

Paul Sand

my report my report 。。。more

Fuzzy Cow

The hot hand is a game warping effect in sports。 If you have the hot hand, you can do anything you want。 If you're on the same team as the hot hand, you just gotta feed them。 If you're on the other side, you're screwed。 Such a game warping situation can not be planned for, should not be relied on, but when you have it, should be ridden as far as it can go。 But is it real? Athletes and coaches know it is。 Mathematicians and economists proved in 1982 that it did not。 In the years after Moneyball, The hot hand is a game warping effect in sports。 If you have the hot hand, you can do anything you want。 If you're on the same team as the hot hand, you just gotta feed them。 If you're on the other side, you're screwed。 Such a game warping situation can not be planned for, should not be relied on, but when you have it, should be ridden as far as it can go。 But is it real? Athletes and coaches know it is。 Mathematicians and economists proved in 1982 that it did not。 In the years after Moneyball, can we we afford to believe in the Hot Hand? How does the Hot Hand effect warp decision making in other fields? This is a book about "the Hot Hand" and it's evolution in proofs。 Ben Cohen knows when math is important, but he does revel in it。 He's not writting the next Moneyball, but I think this book is a strong outline of the question proposed and how the thinking on it has changed with new approaches。 How the math affects the outcome is broadly stated。 Specifics are less important (with one major exception which I think he handled the proof very well)。 Most of it is rooted in basketball, but it's important to note that he discusses the effects of the "hot hand" in other cases。 He defines when "hot hand" effect is an illusion (when you have no real control of the outcome) and discusses what is needed to capitalize on a "hot hand" effect even if it's not real。One major note: Ben Cohen is a sports reporter。 He's a newspaper man。 This defines how this books should be approached。 He is a man who believes stories, and loves to tell them。 This book is entertaining and easy to read (hell, I did it in one day and I NEVER do that), filled with short entertaining and interconnected stories。 It is also a little dramatic。 Ben can tell a tight story, but he relies on manufactured tension to ensure you keep reading。 Near the end of the day, I felt my attention span was being held hostage。 If I dropped the narrative I'm not sure I would be able to pick it up again。 The tension would be gone, and I would be lost。 That's not exactly what I was looking for in a book about a statistical anomaly。 I don't think this is "bad," but I do think near the end he used it irresponsibly。 There was a story he wanted to tell, and it feels like he forced it into the middle of a more relevant though dryer story。 Though both stories were well written, I had internal tonal shifts ("Why am I reading this? What does this have to do with what we just talked about?") when he would bounce between them。 This bounce between stories style occurs fairly commonly throughout the book, but this one instance is in my opinion a mistake。I don't know why, but right now I'm really into Basketball。 This book scratched all of my itches。 Oh man, did I enjoy reading this book。 Filled with great stories combining the use of mathematical models and basketball, who could ask for more。 If you do not like basketball, I don't think you'll love this book like I did。 You may learn a bit。 You may like it, but this is for people who like basketball。 。。。more

Keven Wang

I have been following Ben Cohen’s work on Wall Street Journal。 But I think his expertise is in writing a column。 There are some brilliant chapters in here。 But the cohesion as a book suffers as a result。 It is okay。 Ben will get better in the future