Philosophy

The Precipice: Existential Risk and the Future of Humanity

The Precipice: Existential Risk and the Future of Humanity

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  • Create Date：2021-04-06 09:52:18
  • Update Date：2025-09-07
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  • Author：Toby Ord
  • ISBN：031648492X
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Summary

This urgent and eye-opening book makes the case that protecting humanity's future is the central challenge of our time。

If all goes well， human history is just beginning。 Our species could survive for billions of years - enough time to end disease， poverty， and injustice， and to flourish in ways unimaginable today。 But this vast future is at risk。 With the advent of nuclear weapons， humanity entered a new age， where we face existential catastrophes - those from which we could never come back。 Since then， these dangers have only multiplied， from climate change to engineered pathogens and artificial intelligence。 If we do not act fast to reach a place of safety， it will soon be too late。

Drawing on over a decade of research， The Precipice explores the cutting-edge science behind the risks we face。 It puts them in the context of the greater story of humanity: showing how ending these risks is among the most pressing moral issues of our time。 And it points the way forward， to the actions and strategies that can safeguard humanity。

An Oxford philosopher committed to putting ideas into action， Toby Ord has advised the US National Intelligence Council， the UK Prime Minister's Office， and the World Bank on the biggest questions facing humanity。 In The Precipice， he offers a startling reassessment of human history， the future we are failing to protect， and the steps we must take to ensure that our generation is not the last。

"A book that seems made for the present moment。" —New Yorker

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Reviews

Yates Buckley ，

To look at weighting the interests of those that are living now with the interests of every human that will ever exist。。。 This is an important book because there are so few on this subject and even fewer mostly accessible to a lay audience。 Toby does a good job at presenting the field and its key factors and questions。 Less convincing in his final chapters because of oversimplification of some of the points and core examples。The agricultural revolution as an example of a moment of huge transform To look at weighting the interests of those that are living now with the interests of every human that will ever exist。。。 This is an important book because there are so few on this subject and even fewer mostly accessible to a lay audience。 Toby does a good job at presenting the field and its key factors and questions。 Less convincing in his final chapters because of oversimplification of some of the points and core examples。The agricultural revolution as an example of a moment of huge transformation is also a controversial moment。。 first moment of technical lock-in？ Or liberation from the hard work of hunting and gathering？ Both？ Would have been nice for the author to consider some of the complexity of the issue。 。。。more

Alex Fries ，

This review has been hidden because it contains spoilers。 To view it， click here。 'The Precipice' is a very accessible and introductory text on the current and future candidate problems that might bereave humanity of its long-term potential。 The Oxford Future of Humanity's Toby Ord convincingly makes the case that we live in a somewhat unique， unprecedented and defining period in our species' history。 Much of the worry around the things that could lead to extinction or highly undesirable outcomes for society appear to be the challenges we impose on ourselves （= anthropogenic 'The Precipice' is a very accessible and introductory text on the current and future candidate problems that might bereave humanity of its long-term potential。 The Oxford Future of Humanity's Toby Ord convincingly makes the case that we live in a somewhat unique， unprecedented and defining period in our species' history。 Much of the worry around the things that could lead to extinction or highly undesirable outcomes for society appear to be the challenges we impose on ourselves （= anthropogenic risks）， resulting from increasingly fast technological development and our lack of experience and appropriate ethical frameworks to handle them wisely。 Ord provides a rough quantification and analysis of the risks by such developments and points out some of the key uncertainties surrounding these estimates， which in many cases are quite significant。 While some imagined future scenarios might at least in my option not be particularly realistic （e。g。 humanity entering a period of 'long reflection' after having successfully dealt with its most pressing extinction threats）， the overall direction and message of the book make for a compelling read - both for people who have some familiarity with the subject matter already and those who haven't。 。。。more

Chris ，

-----3/21/21—Adding because I came across The Good Ancestor， the top reviews of which led me to this。

Tyler ，

Fine。 Not much new here that I hadn't heard of before。 Fine。 Not much new here that I hadn't heard of before。 。。。more

Anthony Senanayake ，

The Precipe forces the reader to grapple existential risks that are both natural and anthropogenic in nature and how humanity can and must mitigate them。 The author provides a strong argument for humanity being at a hinge point where the risks it has created for its own survival are now sufficiently large and its wisdom necessarily insufficient that there is a not insubstantial chance of existential catastrophe。 This catastrophe could have major ramifications not just for humanity， but for senti The Precipe forces the reader to grapple existential risks that are both natural and anthropogenic in nature and how humanity can and must mitigate them。 The author provides a strong argument for humanity being at a hinge point where the risks it has created for its own survival are now sufficiently large and its wisdom necessarily insufficient that there is a not insubstantial chance of existential catastrophe。 This catastrophe could have major ramifications not just for humanity， but for sentient life as we know it。 The author provides some discussion on how these risks may be mitigated， however do not expect to leave the book with answers。 The questions that are posed are large and profoundly challenging and will change the way that you think about humanity and life more generally。 。。。more

Matthew ，

I think I missed the point of this book。 For a book that seems to take itself seriously and is on a serious topic - existential risk - there’s no science behind any of it， and all of it could be re-written as ‘problems humanity has to deal with or things may get bad。’ But we already know that。 Nothing in here is new - literally not one page of it。 Moreover， his solutions contradict themselves。 He says nukes are scary and we should have fewer of them - every kid over the age of 10 agrees。 He says I think I missed the point of this book。 For a book that seems to take itself seriously and is on a serious topic - existential risk - there’s no science behind any of it， and all of it could be re-written as ‘problems humanity has to deal with or things may get bad。’ But we already know that。 Nothing in here is new - literally not one page of it。 Moreover， his solutions contradict themselves。 He says nukes are scary and we should have fewer of them - every kid over the age of 10 agrees。 He says climate change is an existential risk， which all serious people know。 He says AI might be a risk in the future。 Thank you， I’ve read the news more than once in the last 10 years so I am well aware。 That’s it - literally， those are the three risks， with some pandemic stuff and others thrown in for seasoning。 He then jumps around across timelines ranging from centuries out to hundreds of thousands of years out。 So。。。 ？ There’s tons of fluff。 Try this sentence out for size on page 45: “People matter equally regardless of their temporal location。” I can’t help but ask: how and why？ Under what philosophical approach？ Do we value the living more than dead， or do we live for those still to come？ And what is that concept rooted in， and how does that define good and bad across time？ I’d say I’m being dense but you’re the Oxford philosophy professor， so if you don’t know， I don’t know who else to ask。 Every sentence that does seem profound starts with ‘suppose there is a 20% chance of X’ （say， the sun exploding）。 Ok - but how was that 20% number calculated？ Never explained。 But that doesn’t stop him from doing some basic math along the lines of ‘if that risk increases threefold， now we have higher risk。’ Again - what？Even the math he does include （finally） on a single page （178） is not helpful at all。 “Suppose F（sq） = a status quo value of great power competition。” I’ll pay anyone $100 if you can send me a note with a value in that formula that is mathematically or logically deduced and can be defended。 The entire book is devoid of units of measurement， so we get things that appear deep until you think about them for more than 10 seconds: “cost effectiveness = importance x tractability x neglectedness。” Mmm interesting。 Wait， how can I actually apply that idea to anything at all？ How much neglectedness is a lot？ That doesn’t make sense， or is interesting as a purely theoretical idea in a classroom。 He acknowledges as much: “even though it is very difficult to assign precise numbers to these dimensions。。。” One might say impossible with any sense of practical applicability。 Which is the summary concept of this book。 Lastly， what tipped from 2 star to 1 is his quip about Epicurus。 One of my least favorite tics of intellectuals is coming up with one simple thing that they think proves the ancient minds were totally wrong。 Page 48 - “Epicurus argued that your death cannot be bad for you， since you are not there to experience it。 What this neglects is that if I step out into traffic and die， my life as a whole will be shorter and therefore worse。” Oh。 Epicurus didn’t think about dying meaning a shorter life！ Except he did， and you know it， as did all the Stoics who enjoin us to not think about life as time spanned， but experiences / life ‘lived’ （alternatively， they proposed a different unit of measurement than most of us use reflexively， something I desperately wish the author would do）。 Which is why every intelligent person throughout history has essentially said something along the lines of ‘a man may have lived long， yet lived little。’ But not this author - he proved those old people are silly with his traffic experiment。 。。。more

Mateo ，

Bueno lo tarde en leer porque lo estábamos leyendo con el grupo de lectura de altruismo eficaz， donde leíamos un capitulo por semana。 Me gustó， pero me gustaría releerlo en menos tiempo de lo que lo leí ahora。No soy muy bueno haciendo resúmenes o reseñas de libros y como encontré una hecha por otra persona que me gusto mucho， me parece mejor dejar el link a esa pagina https://jaimesevillamolina。medium。com。。。 Bueno lo tarde en leer porque lo estábamos leyendo con el grupo de lectura de altruismo eficaz， donde leíamos un capitulo por semana。 Me gustó， pero me gustaría releerlo en menos tiempo de lo que lo leí ahora。No soy muy bueno haciendo resúmenes o reseñas de libros y como encontré una hecha por otra persona que me gusto mucho， me parece mejor dejar el link a esa pagina https://jaimesevillamolina。medium。com。。。 。。。more

Curtis Bozif ，

Written just before COVD， so right off the bat， this book felt strangely dated。 Overall， very well written。 Clearly， by the way Ord lays out an argument， this book was written by a deep thinking person trained in philosophy and ethics。 Found the sections concerning concerning AI especially interesting。 Was surprised to read that out of all the human extinction scenarios covered in this book， Ord gave miss-aligned AI the best odds （1:6 if I remember correctly） of actually occurring in the next 10 Written just before COVD， so right off the bat， this book felt strangely dated。 Overall， very well written。 Clearly， by the way Ord lays out an argument， this book was written by a deep thinking person trained in philosophy and ethics。 Found the sections concerning concerning AI especially interesting。 Was surprised to read that out of all the human extinction scenarios covered in this book， Ord gave miss-aligned AI the best odds （1:6 if I remember correctly） of actually occurring in the next 100 years。 Finally， I listened to the audiobook version。 This is a great example of an author being a great narrator of their own work。 。。。more

Pete Woodhouse ，

It was weird to read this while the world is in the middle of a pandemic， Andover found myself wanting to read more about viruses and pandemics than nuclear threats。 But the book is well researched and written， if a little scary

Daniel Gray ，

In the last chapter， Ord looks to the astoundingly large expanses of space and time humanity could one day traverse。 Reading about it filled me with awe and wonder in a way nothing else I've read ever has。 I especially liked this passage:But if we could reach just one nearby star and establish a settlement， this entire galaxy would open up to us。 For then the process could repeat， using the resources of our new settlement to build more spacecraft， and its sun to power them。 If we could travel ju In the last chapter， Ord looks to the astoundingly large expanses of space and time humanity could one day traverse。 Reading about it filled me with awe and wonder in a way nothing else I've read ever has。 I especially liked this passage:But if we could reach just one nearby star and establish a settlement， this entire galaxy would open up to us。 For then the process could repeat， using the resources of our new settlement to build more spacecraft， and its sun to power them。 If we could travel just six light years at a time， then almost all the stars of our galaxy would be reachable。 Each star system， including our own， would need to settle just the few nearest stars， and the entire galaxy would eventually fill with life。 The final chapter drove home the urgency and importance of not squandering that future。 。。。more

Jasmin Kaur ，

A thoroughly good read。 It makes a good argument that humanity is in its adolescent stages- with much potential for destruction to itself。 It was eye opening to read about not just current and past threats， but potential threats from AI etc。 It is well balanced with a message of hope for humanity's future and how we can achieve that future。 A thoroughly good read。 It makes a good argument that humanity is in its adolescent stages- with much potential for destruction to itself。 It was eye opening to read about not just current and past threats， but potential threats from AI etc。 It is well balanced with a message of hope for humanity's future and how we can achieve that future。 。。。more

Landon ，

The most unrealistic collection of ideas ever compiled。 I don’t know if the author is actually even human。 I don’t think either of the two criticisms above should prevent you from reading this book if you’re interested in a 200 level college Ethics class about existential risk management。I was a little nervous that this was just going to be a book with too many climate change chapters， but it was well balanced with all of the risks—including asteroids and super volcanoes （I。e。， the fun stuff）。I The most unrealistic collection of ideas ever compiled。 I don’t know if the author is actually even human。 I don’t think either of the two criticisms above should prevent you from reading this book if you’re interested in a 200 level college Ethics class about existential risk management。I was a little nervous that this was just going to be a book with too many climate change chapters， but it was well balanced with all of the risks—including asteroids and super volcanoes （I。e。， the fun stuff）。I had a good time。 I was surprised to find that this was a page turner for me。 。。。more

Paul Snelling ，

This book has 468 pages， but finishes on page 241， followed by over 200 pages of appendices， notes and index。 It’s actually quite short， and very well written and very easy to read。 It’s a good book， but also a little frustrating。 The risks from anthropogenic causes are far bigger than those from natural risk， which I found reassuring as we can do something about those。 The chances are not as slim as we’d like them to be – even if they are， well， nothing more than educated guesses。 And since it This book has 468 pages， but finishes on page 241， followed by over 200 pages of appendices， notes and index。 It’s actually quite short， and very well written and very easy to read。 It’s a good book， but also a little frustrating。 The risks from anthropogenic causes are far bigger than those from natural risk， which I found reassuring as we can do something about those。 The chances are not as slim as we’d like them to be – even if they are， well， nothing more than educated guesses。 And since it discusses existential rather than all risk， the dangers of events like global warming which will make life very uncomfortable for all of us even if it’s unlikely to kills us all， is not addressed in anything short of apocalypse。 The book is optimistic though perhaps unrealistic about what can be done， but the downward slope is fast approaching even if the precipice is some way off， and not a great of effective international collaboration is evident thus far。 And as far what， I， an individual， can do， the book offers three paragraphs。 Have a discussion， basically。 That’s probably unfair; there’s no claim to be a manifesto， but it would add some urgency to the narrative。 After all， the total existential risk for the next 100 years is estimated as 1 in 6。 And， spoiler alert， what’s most likely to get us？ Answer: The robots。 。。。more

David ，

Beautifully written， intelectually rich， very important topic

Amirmansour Khanmohammad ，

Almost a waste of time。

Kirs ，

Written with clarity; well-thought out with a smooth logical flow。 Prior to reading this I was only mildly sympathetic towards reducing existential risks and working to improve the long-term future， but after reading this， I now not only more rationally understand this cause area but feel more towards it as well。

Ryder Kimball ，

The Precipice is a compelling work that addresses the existential risks that are （or could） threaten not only the extinction of humanity but also our potential。 It is one of the most well-structured， thoroughly researched， and engaging books I’ve read all year。 Ord argues that we’re currently in a unique， brief period of time that will determine whether we mature and grow as a species or succumb to the numerous threats we face。 It is in this period （which he names ‘The Precipice’） that he urges The Precipice is a compelling work that addresses the existential risks that are （or could） threaten not only the extinction of humanity but also our potential。 It is one of the most well-structured， thoroughly researched， and engaging books I’ve read all year。 Ord argues that we’re currently in a unique， brief period of time that will determine whether we mature and grow as a species or succumb to the numerous threats we face。 It is in this period （which he names ‘The Precipice’） that he urges humanity to undergo a moral revolution so that our collective wisdom can match our technological prowess， thus minimizing the probability of civilizational collapse。 Ord argues that the species of Homo sapiens， who have been around for 200，000 years， is essentially an adolescent， and like actual adolescents we are prone to making rash decisions without regard for our future。 However， if we play our cards right we could exist and thrive for potentially billions of years to come。 What’s most important now is for humanity to preserve our options through existential security。 The book is filled with detailed and compelling discussions about a number of existential risks， including those that are natural （asteroids/comets， supervolcanic eruptions， stellar explosions）， ones that are anthropogenic （nuclear weapons， climate change， environmental damage）， and those that will threaten us in the future （pandemics， unaligned artificial intelligence， dystopian scenarios）。 Ord evaluates these risks through various metrics to determine which ones should be prioritized， but his careful analysis and comparison of their probabilities is most convincing。 Overall， The Precipice is an impressively persuasive work that， despite its terrifying subject matter， encourages a constructive and hopeful approach to addressing these problems。"And a world without agony and injustice is just a lower bound on how good life could be。 Neither the sciences nor the humanities have yet found any upper bound。 We get some hint at what is possible during life’s best moments: glimpses of raw joy， luminous beauty， soaring love。 Moments when we are truly awake。 These moments， however brief， point to possible heights of flourishing far beyond the status quo， and far beyond our current comprehension。""People matter equally regardless of their temporal locations too。 Our lives matter just as much as those lived thousands of years ago， or those a thousand years hence。 Just as it would be wrong to think that other people matter less the further they are from you in space， so it is to think they matter less the further away from you they are in time。 The value of their happiness， and the horror of their suffering， is undiminished。" 。。。more

Richard Jackson ，

review is based on only a partial reading of several chapters of interest。 A thought provoking and engaging description of where we have been and what it will take for us to keep going。 A lot to digest but a book we should all at least try to tackle

Andreas L Massey ，

This book is very accurate！Toby Ord writes like a proper effective altruist and greets the reader by the door。 He saves the complicated bits for the appendix， and stays within the realms of laymen。 In other words， this book is very comprehensible and easily digestible。 There has been some great editorial choices made here， and I must simply applaud it。 A well written book， without a doubt。

Jonathan ，

Ord makes a solid case （often with a mathematical basis） that humanity severely underestimates existential threats， especially recent anthropogenic ones。 And the book's argument is an important one--calling for greater attention and assessment of these threats to ensure our own survival over the next century， while also citing the moral imperative to protect （and not foreclose） future generations of humanity。 But his proposed solutions do seem awfully optimistic， and rely heavily on a degree of Ord makes a solid case （often with a mathematical basis） that humanity severely underestimates existential threats， especially recent anthropogenic ones。 And the book's argument is an important one--calling for greater attention and assessment of these threats to ensure our own survival over the next century， while also citing the moral imperative to protect （and not foreclose） future generations of humanity。 But his proposed solutions do seem awfully optimistic， and rely heavily on a degree of international cooperation about which I'm not sanguine。 In the end， the book is kind of overstuffed， and I probably could have gotten the meat of the arguments via a long magazine article or a 20-minute TED Talk。 But I respect Ord greatly for his moral concern and his genuine attempts to re-frame our viewpoint。 。。。more

Georgia Rose ，

A thoughtful and thought-provoking look at different things that could wipe humanity out （like asteroids， climate chaos， nuclear war， pandemics and rogue AI）。 Ord is optimistic abour our ability to avoid all these dramatic ends。 He sets out practical recommendations about what we could be doing to better guard against these existential risks。 Then paints a picture of where humanity could go in the distant future。 I picked this book up after listening to this interview - it will give you a better A thoughtful and thought-provoking look at different things that could wipe humanity out （like asteroids， climate chaos， nuclear war， pandemics and rogue AI）。 Ord is optimistic abour our ability to avoid all these dramatic ends。 He sets out practical recommendations about what we could be doing to better guard against these existential risks。 Then paints a picture of where humanity could go in the distant future。 I picked this book up after listening to this interview - it will give you a better feel for the book than I can give here: https://goodlifepodcast。podbean。com/e。。。 。。。more

Paige ，

This book provides a thorough intro to existential risks and how we might reduce them。 I can’t really recommend this book to anyone but those super interested in the topic， unfortunately。 It’s a bit too long and dry for someone with a casual interest。

Rebekah ，

Surprisingly digestible and brings a lot of interesting facts in。 A bit too heavy on the philosophy for me but the author is a philosophy research fellow so I guess that's to be expected。 The later parts of the book were already familiar enough to me from reading most of the Effective Altruism website （which Toby Ord co-runs as far as I know）。 Surprisingly digestible and brings a lot of interesting facts in。 A bit too heavy on the philosophy for me but the author is a philosophy research fellow so I guess that's to be expected。 The later parts of the book were already familiar enough to me from reading most of the Effective Altruism website （which Toby Ord co-runs as far as I know）。 。。。more

Sasha Hodes ，

4 1/2

Jake Novick ，

This book is so important to read， but I would give the advice of skipping a couple of the more technical chapters if it isn't your specialty。 Also， the many footnotes throughout are very worthwhile in large part。 This book shifted my perspective in large ways， giving real credibility to the most important existential risks we face， and bringing the potential billions of future generations of humans into a present moment that we hold the keys to today。 This book is so important to read， but I would give the advice of skipping a couple of the more technical chapters if it isn't your specialty。 Also， the many footnotes throughout are very worthwhile in large part。 This book shifted my perspective in large ways， giving real credibility to the most important existential risks we face， and bringing the potential billions of future generations of humans into a present moment that we hold the keys to today。 。。。more

Tejas Subramaniam ，

The first half identifying and describing the problems is a lot better than the second half， which aims to （1） outline plausible solutions/ways of looking at solutions and （2） describe what the long-term potential of humanity is。 The places in the first half where I learned the most were the parts on biorisk （e。g。 the level of funding and manpower of the Biological Weapons Convention， and the degree of security BSL-3 and BSL-4 designations entail）， the section on nuclear weapons （and the possibl The first half identifying and describing the problems is a lot better than the second half， which aims to （1） outline plausible solutions/ways of looking at solutions and （2） describe what the long-term potential of humanity is。 The places in the first half where I learned the most were the parts on biorisk （e。g。 the level of funding and manpower of the Biological Weapons Convention， and the degree of security BSL-3 and BSL-4 designations entail）， the section on nuclear weapons （and the possible paths to existential risk from nuclear weapons）， and the section on climate change （in particular， permafrost and methane clathrate feedbacks were interesting lenses）。 I found some of the argumentation on AGI uncompelling （e。g。， why is there a roughly one-in-five chance AGI causes an existential catastrophe conditional on AGI being created？ what are mechanisms to prevent AGI from causing a catastrophe？）， but broadly， I bought that it was one of the two risks likely to cause maximal existential catastrophe （though I’m more concerned about engineered pandemics）。 I also didn’t buy the broad philosophical premise （from Parfit） that an existential catastrophe is exponentially worse than a catastrophe that， say， kills nine in ten people （because of the substantial negative effects on the lives of those still alive）， so the book didn’t really manage to convince me that， for instance， nuclear war is a significantly lower threat than AGI/engineered pandemics。 I thought the second half was somewhat repetitive/trivial， though I did appreciate the discussion on humanity’s future potential。 I would have liked more material on what differential technological development looks like and how it interacts/trades-off against other concerns， such as economic growth。 I enjoyed reading the appendices and would recommend reading them。 Overall， a solid book。 Learned a lot， both on the importance and nature of catastrophic risks。 A really good existential risk 101。 。。。more

Adina Levin ，

Great book。 Lost me in a couple sections that I think could've been clearer。 But definitely a must-read to guarantee the future of humanity。 Great book。 Lost me in a couple sections that I think could've been clearer。 But definitely a must-read to guarantee the future of humanity。 。。。more

Tim Weed ，

One of these 20，000 foot big picture books， about something kind of important。 Well-written and engaging too！

Samuel York ，

why is this book so needlessly large， wtf

Berenika Wos ，

Informative， objective and very straightforward。 Considering the pretty depressing topics I really enjoyed reading this book。

Reference

google book https://www.google.com/search?tbm=bks&q=The Precipice: Existential Risk and the Future of Humanity

hathitrust digital library https://babel.hathitrust.org/cgi/ls?q1=The Precipice: Existential Risk and the Future of Humanity&field1=ocr&a=srchls&ft=ft&lmt=ft

The British Library https://bll01.primo.exlibrisgroup.com/discovery/search?query=any,contains,The Precipice: Existential Risk and the Future of Humanity&tab=LibraryCatalog&search_scope=Not_BL_Suppress&vid=44BL_INST:BLL01&lang=en&offset=0