Economics

MEGATHREATS: TEN DANGEROUS TRENDS AND HO

MEGATHREATS: TEN DANGEROUS TRENDS AND HO

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  • Create Date：2022-12-22 09:51:29
  • Update Date：2025-09-06
  • Status：finish
  • Author：Nouriel Roubini
  • ISBN：1529373786
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Summary

The bestselling author of CRISIS ECONOMICS argues that we are heading toward the worst economic catastrophe of our lifetimes， unless we can defend against ten terrifying threats。

Renowned economist Nouriel Roubini was nicknamed “Dr。 Doom，” until his prediction of the 2008 housing crisis and Great Recession came true--when it was too late。 Now he is back with a much scarier prediction， one that we ignore at our peril。 There are no fewer than ten overlapping， interconnected threats that are so serious， he calls them Megathreats。 From the worst debt crisis the world has ever seen， to governments pumping out too much money， to borders that are blocked to workers and to many shipments of goods， to the rise of a new superpower competition between China and the U。S。， to climate change that strikes directly at our most populated cities， we are facing not one， not two， but ten causes of disaster。 There is a slight chance we can avoid them， if we come to our senses—but we must act now。
 
In the 1970s， the U。S。 faced stagflation: high rates of inflation combined with stagnant employment and growth。 Today， we are heading toward a Great Stagflation that will make the 1970s look like a walk in the park。

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Reviews

Andrew Eil ，

Ideas are compelling， fresh -- and terrifying。 However the book seems to be a bit hastily composed and some chapters seem to have a bit of filler。 I'd have appreciated an approach that dug deeper into solutions， root causes， etc。 rather than simply narrative， which is a bit starchy。 Ideas are compelling， fresh -- and terrifying。 However the book seems to be a bit hastily composed and some chapters seem to have a bit of filler。 I'd have appreciated an approach that dug deeper into solutions， root causes， etc。 rather than simply narrative， which is a bit starchy。 。。。more

Claire Osgood ，

Very enlightening non fiction offering from an economist who has lived in several countries。 Therefore his views reflect a more global view of the burgeoning world challenge。 Great read。

Kiona Meade ，

Interesting thoughts and take。 Does it worry me a bit？ Yes。 But I am still hopeful that we can avoid some of the major megathreats。

Anton ，

WordyThe topic is off course excessively interesting， but the wiring is not very strong。 He meanders， and takes a long time to make the same point。

Vanya Prodanova ，

Ох， леле， разбирам защо го наричат Doctor Doom， но е и прав， че е по-скоро Doctor Realist， защото всяко едно от нещата， които спомена като потенциална мега заплаха за човечеството， е напълно логична， разумна и началото на повечето от тях са налице。Аз съм песимист по душа и много пъти се е случвало като общувам с хора， да ми се цупят， че съм твърде черногледа。 Е， дори аз с моето развинтено въображение， не мога да се сравнявам с Nouriel Roubini。 Книгата е трудно да я оставиш， независимо， че е икон Ох， леле， разбирам защо го наричат Doctor Doom， но е и прав， че е по-скоро Doctor Realist， защото всяко едно от нещата， които спомена като потенциална мега заплаха за човечеството， е напълно логична， разумна и началото на повечето от тях са налице。Аз съм песимист по душа и много пъти се е случвало като общувам с хора， да ми се цупят， че съм твърде черногледа。 Е， дори аз с моето развинтено въображение， не мога да се сравнявам с Nouriel Roubini。 Книгата е трудно да я оставиш， независимо， че е икономическа книга， просто е твърде интересна， но на моменти ми се налагаше да спра да слушам， защото усещах， че започвам да изпадам в паника от всичко， което обрисува и излага。 Тъжният факт е， че е прав， нещата няма да станат по-добре за нас и трябва да се подготвим за много лоши сценарии。 А， истината е， че обикновените хора няма какво да направят， за да се подготвят за подобен тип ситуации， а и повечето хора предпочитат да живеят в блажено невежество， за което завиждам， няма да лъжа。Днес видях в новините， че британското правителство премахва Ring-Fencing Regime， който беше поставен след финансовата криза от 2008 година， с цел да се защитят парите на обикновените хора и банките да рискуват собствените си пари， а не парите на хората。 Премахват го и това ясно дава индикация， че няма правителство или управляващ режим в целия свят， който да му пука за хората， освен за собствените им дълбоки джобове。 Та， това е просто малък пример как всъщност Roubini е прав в много аспекти， че не изглежда позитивно бъдещето ни， тъй като всички се борим за ресурси и то не колкото да имаме， за да живеем добре， а просто да имаме колкото се може повече， ей така。。。 за спорта。Книгата наистина си струва да се изслуша/прочете， особено ако човек не живее в България。 България трудно изпада в каквито и да е негативни финансови ситуации， тъй като банките ни са вече вампири и като цяло страната е в доста тъжно финансово състояние， но пак е добре човек да има на идея на къде духа световният вятър， защото миналото е доказало， че няма спасение и за нас ако станат военни конфликти。 :/Унищожих си празниците като я изслушах тази книга， но човек е по-добре да знае， отколкото да се чуди в един момент от къде му е дошло всичко。 :） 。。。more

Frank Lindt ，

There is a flood of information in this book that fails to become real concrete。 The first chapters are stronger as they fall in Roubini’s field of expertise。 The latter ones read more like investigative journalism rather than a well structured argument。

Roland M ，

I found chapter 6 to 9 really interresting。

David Ryan ，

'There is no gravitational limit to human behavior' 。。。 to paraphrase Roubini， I think captures the essence of the book to me。 Ten significant systemic mega threats unleashed by humans that humans can mitigate， adapt to， or solve if only we knew how to get along。Pick a threat; - Climate Change unleashing massive dislocations and forced migrations， - the Thucydides Trap of the world's superpower feeling threatened by China， - AI & Robotics creating millions if not billions of "surplus" humans， - 'There is no gravitational limit to human behavior' 。。。 to paraphrase Roubini， I think captures the essence of the book to me。 Ten significant systemic mega threats unleashed by humans that humans can mitigate， adapt to， or solve if only we knew how to get along。Pick a threat; - Climate Change unleashing massive dislocations and forced migrations， - the Thucydides Trap of the world's superpower feeling threatened by China， - AI & Robotics creating millions if not billions of "surplus" humans， - the rapid growth of viral epidemics in the last 60 years， - unsustainably massive explicit （official） plus implicit （think pensions and insurance promises） debts （22x official debt） and financial instability， - rapidly aging populations， - deglobalization is a long-term driver of inflation and slower growth， - and slow growth + massive inequality fuels populism， which in turn fuels nativism， which in turn is the catnip for authoritarianism and totalitarianism。Solutions are scarce and given our domestic and global politics 。。。 aspirational- Leverage legal migration for faster economic growth （55% of $1B start-ups in the USA are founded by immigrants）- rapidly advance technologies such as fusion reactors for energy generation- embrace global cooperation as no one country can address any one threat （let alone ten） aloneAs Roubini concludes and as Kristalina Georgieva （IMF Managing Director） recently said "Buckle Up" 。。。 this is going to be a bumpy ride through a very dark night。 。。。more

Matthew Christopher ，

It's capitalist nonsense， but since capitalism is clearly hell-bent on destroying the world， it's a good enough description of how capitalism will destroy us all。 It's capitalist nonsense， but since capitalism is clearly hell-bent on destroying the world， it's a good enough description of how capitalism will destroy us all。 。。。more

Brannen ，

Lite weight / not numerical / filled with platitudes worthy of a tarot card reader （no disrespect to tarot card readers） / seems like a hastily written book for the purpose of time stamping prediction of a calamity to credentialize themselves on the talking head circuit / I’d skip it unless you don’t read the news

Li Li ，

Excellent book with a provocative but realistic prediction with tons of reliable data and common sense to back it up。 But I feel that the author is a bit biased toward cryptocurrency and AI。 Well， I am too， biased。

Nawasandi ，

Pembaca mungkin akan tertipu oleh Chapter 12 tentang Utopia。 Namun， sejak awal paragraf， Roubini sudah mengkode dengan lagu Jimi Hendrix “All Along The Watchtower”。 Bagi yang paham makna lagu ini， tertipu adalah hal mustahil。 Nyatanya， algoritma Roubini tidak berubah tentang masa depan。 Distopia adalah his mother tongue。 Distopia selalu lebih masuk akal baginya。 Distopia adalah common sense untuk kita bertahan hidup。 Dan membaca common sense 320 halaman hanya perlu waktu singkat。 Abad dua puluh Pembaca mungkin akan tertipu oleh Chapter 12 tentang Utopia。 Namun， sejak awal paragraf， Roubini sudah mengkode dengan lagu Jimi Hendrix “All Along The Watchtower”。 Bagi yang paham makna lagu ini， tertipu adalah hal mustahil。 Nyatanya， algoritma Roubini tidak berubah tentang masa depan。 Distopia adalah his mother tongue。 Distopia selalu lebih masuk akal baginya。 Distopia adalah common sense untuk kita bertahan hidup。 Dan membaca common sense 320 halaman hanya perlu waktu singkat。 Abad dua puluh ditandai dengan residu-residu goncangan peradaban。 Perang Dunia Pertama， flu Spanish （siapa Menteri yang hobi bilang unprecedented？）， hiperinflasi， deglobalisasi， lalu menuju 1929 Depresi Besar （welcome aboard Keynesian）， perang dagang， lubang hitam utang， bangkitnya populisme， lalu lahirnya demagog-demagog otoritarian fasis yang hiper gairahnya dalam caplok mencaplok wilayah， baik di Eropa （Jerman， Italia， Spanyol） maupun di Asia （Jepang） hingga menjadi kesurupan massal yang mengantar ke gerbang Perang Dunia Kedua。 Siklus ini， menurut Roubini （sama seperti buku-bukunya sebelumnya） adalah alarm yang kita sendiri yang atur， dan seharusnya kita sendiri yang memutuskan untuk tetap tidur， sedikit bangun namun memencet tombol “snooze” lalu tidur kembali， atau totalitas matikan alarm dan bangun memutus ledakan。Sayangnya， nada dering alarm ini， semakin kini semakin merdu dan mendayu tak seperti delapan dekade lalu yang setiap orang mudah teriritasi。 Kini， nada dering ini seperti bunyi jangkrik di malam hari， atau kodok di musim hujan—berisik namun asik， membuat kita hanyut dan lebih lelap。 Analogi ini percis serupa dengan realita， sebab kini meski kesenjangan ekonomi interindividu dan interregional semakin lebar， namun gejalanya dirasakan tak seketika。 Lagipula， lembaga keuangan kita semakin ter-leverage meski telah di remedy dengan koyo cabe merek ‘macroprudential policy’ （panasnya diawal saja， kemudian dingin dan jika dicabut sakit）。 Lagipula， banyak negeri makin gemar berlomba-lomba dalam kebaikan （sebaik mungkin mempersenjatai diri dengan apapun yang lebih dahsyat daripada nuklir） entah menakuti hantu apa， namun jelas kebatinannya adalah more fear and asimetri kuasa。Perang Dingin Jilid Kedua pun direplikasi， dan kini semakin menggoda banyak negeri revisionis kekuasaan untuk menentukan blok posisi di Kurusetra Baru。 Teknologi kini diperjuangkan， namun bukan untuk kompetisi ke Bulan atau kemudahan produksi， melainkan kemudahan untuk menjadi otoritarian penuh atas bukan sekedar teritori， melainkan juga sensori， memori， dan batang otak。 Kita terlahir teritorial， dan terus dididik untuk demikian， dan kini kita memuja teknologi tak seperti Winston mencurigai teknologi di 1984 Orwell。 Orkestrasi aksi iklim bukan menjadi revolusi rejuvenasi gaya hidup asah， asih， dan asuh terhadap alam， melainkan menjadi bisnis baru bagi kroni penguasa-pengusaha lama。 Merekalah para promotor 7 dosa mematikan yang mengaku pahlawan。 Maka itu， common sense Roubini memilih arah tujuan distopia yang penuh alienasi， yang mana alienasi menjadi bahan bakar bagi munculnya Nazi baru， Fasis baru， dan Militerisme baru di dunia yang akhir goyang pendulumnya adalah ekuilibrium Nash。 。。。more

Reference

google book https://www.google.com/search?tbm=bks&q=MEGATHREATS: TEN DANGEROUS TRENDS AND HO

hathitrust digital library https://babel.hathitrust.org/cgi/ls?q1=MEGATHREATS: TEN DANGEROUS TRENDS AND HO&field1=ocr&a=srchls&ft=ft&lmt=ft

The British Library https://bll01.primo.exlibrisgroup.com/discovery/search?query=any,contains,MEGATHREATS: TEN DANGEROUS TRENDS AND HO&tab=LibraryCatalog&search_scope=Not_BL_Suppress&vid=44BL_INST:BLL01&lang=en&offset=0