Mastering the Market Cycle: Getting the Odds on Your Side
- Downloads：8960
- Type：Epub+TxT+PDF+Mobi
- Create Date：2022-10-30 06:56:48
- Update Date：2025-09-06
- Status：finish
- Author：Howard Marks
- ISBN：1328479250
- Environment：PC/Android/iPhone/iPad/Kindle
- Download
Summary
The legendary investor shows how to identify and master the cycles that govern the markets。
We all know markets rise and fall， but when should you pull out， and when should you stay in？ The answer is never black or white， but is best reached through a keen understanding of the reasons behind the rhythm of cycles。 Confidence about where we are in a cycle comes when you learn the patterns of ups and downs that influence not just economics， markets and companies， but also human psychology and the investing behaviors that result。
If you study past cycles， understand their origins and remain alert for the next one， you will become keenly attuned to the investment environment as it changes。 You’ll be aware and prepared while others get blindsided by unexpected events or fall victim to emotions like fear and greed。
By following Marks’s insights — drawn in part from his iconic memos over the years to Oaktree’s clients — you can master these recurring patterns to have the opportunity to improve your results。
We all know markets rise and fall， but when should you pull out， and when should you stay in？ The answer is never black or white， but is best reached through a keen understanding of the reasons behind the rhythm of cycles。 Confidence about where we are in a cycle comes when you learn the patterns of ups and downs that influence not just economics， markets and companies， but also human psychology and the investing behaviors that result。
If you study past cycles， understand their origins and remain alert for the next one， you will become keenly attuned to the investment environment as it changes。 You’ll be aware and prepared while others get blindsided by unexpected events or fall victim to emotions like fear and greed。
By following Marks’s insights — drawn in part from his iconic memos over the years to Oaktree’s clients — you can master these recurring patterns to have the opportunity to improve your results。
Reviews
Mark Skinner
，
Enjoyed reading this and feel it is written in a way to help his points， lessons， wisdowm， and observations sink in to me and readers。Thank you and encourage other investors who are looking for the best advice in building and managing your portfolio to grab a copy and read it。He has shared lessons he has learned in his career from others he has crossed paths with and from the experiences in his career as a finance professional。 Look forward to reading and learning more from Mr。 Marks。
周 大為
，
很有幫助的投資心態書籍，說明了如何透過掌握市場週期，來達到更優秀的市場報酬。
Kevin Kim
，
Quotes: Quotes: 。。。more
Li Li
，
Great book， but it is a bit repetitive towards the 2nd half of the book
Joe Goldberg
，
Absolutely garbage I’ve never seen a book so redundant and full of empty words。 Sell when people are greedy， buy when everyone’s fearful whatever。 All the book does is state some basic knowledge then just continue to repeat it， I couldn’t even finish it。
Makmild
，
จริงๆ เวลาเราอ่านหนังสือการลงทุนเราจะใช้เวลาค่อนข้างนาน เพราะอ่านไม่ค่อยเข้าใจ และก็ไม่ค่อยได้อ่านหนังสือแนวนี้นักด้วย （ส่วนใหญ่จะอ่านเศรษฐศาสตร์ ไม่ได้อ่านการลงทุน） เล่มนี้อ่านค่อนข้างไว เพราะ1。 มันอ่านง่าย2。 เนื้อหามันซ้ำ555555555555555 คือ ไม่ใช่ว่ามันไม่ดีนะ แต่มันพูดเรื่องเดิมๆ ทั้งเล่มเลยอะ บ้าบอ จริงๆ แล้วก็ไม่ขนาดนั้น คือแต่ละบทก็จะอธิบายถึง cycle ของแต่ละ industry ไปด้วย เช่น real estate cycle/credit cycle/debt cycle/profit cycle คือในแง่หนึ่งมันก็ละเอียด อีกแง่หนึ่งคือ เหมือนพยายามทำให จริงๆ เวลาเราอ่านหนังสือการลงทุนเราจะใช้เวลาค่อนข้างนาน เพราะอ่านไม่ค่อยเข้าใจ และก็ไม่ค่อยได้อ่านหนังสือแนวนี้นักด้วย （ส่วนใหญ่จะอ่านเศรษฐศาสตร์ ไม่ได้อ่านการลงทุน） เล่มนี้อ่านค่อนข้างไว เพราะ1。 มันอ่านง่าย2。 เนื้อหามันซ้ำ555555555555555 คือ ไม่ใช่ว่ามันไม่ดีนะ แต่มันพูดเรื่องเดิมๆ ทั้งเล่มเลยอะ บ้าบอ จริงๆ แล้วก็ไม่ขนาดนั้น คือแต่ละบทก็จะอธิบายถึง cycle ของแต่ละ industry ไปด้วย เช่น real estate cycle/credit cycle/debt cycle/profit cycle คือในแง่หนึ่งมันก็ละเอียด อีกแง่หนึ่งคือ เหมือนพยายามทำให้หนังสือมันหนาเฉยๆ ซึ่งถ้าอ่านแค่สองสามบทแรกกับสองสามบทท้ายเราก็พอจะ get point ของมันอยู่แล้ว แต่แต่ละบทที่ย่อยไปมันก็มีประเด็นของมันแหละ เช่นเวลาขึ้นลงของแต่ละ industry มันก็ไม่เหมือนกันนะ วิธีการดูเป็นยังไง และที่สำคัญคือแต่ละ cycle มันไม่ได้สิ้นสุดภายในตัวเองนะ มันมีวิธีการเชื่อมต่อขึ้นลงแต่ละรอบยังไง คำถามสำคัญไม่ใช่ว่ามันขึ้นจบหรือยัง หรือลงจบหรือยังเพียงอย่างเดียว แต่เราสามารถที่จะบอกได้ว่าอะไรคือสัญญาณของขาขึ้นและลงของแต่ละรอบต่างหาก 。。。more
Lukasz
，
recommendation: [🏡 Czy nieruchomości bronią przed inflacją？ Część 3 – kiedy ceny nieruchomości mogą spadać？ - YouTube]（https://www。youtube。com/watch？v=6UKOU。。。） recommendation: [🏡 Czy nieruchomości bronią przed inflacją？ Część 3 – kiedy ceny nieruchomości mogą spadać？ - YouTube]（https://www。youtube。com/watch？v=6UKOU。。。） 。。。more
Ruibo
，
I was planning to read the book in 2018 when the book just came out， I finally decided to stop procrastination and worked through the book。 I still remember how insightful Marks’s The Most Important Thing: Uncommon Sense for the Thoughtful Investor was for me， so I had a high expectation on this one。If I hadn’t worked in the industry for a while， I’d probably enjoyed this book better。 To me， the benefits/gains are much less in relation to the efforts of reading the whole book。 In my opinion， the I was planning to read the book in 2018 when the book just came out， I finally decided to stop procrastination and worked through the book。 I still remember how insightful Marks’s The Most Important Thing: Uncommon Sense for the Thoughtful Investor was for me， so I had a high expectation on this one。If I hadn’t worked in the industry for a while， I’d probably enjoyed this book better。 To me， the benefits/gains are much less in relation to the efforts of reading the whole book。 In my opinion， the book can definitely be condensed to 40% of its original length。 It’s somewhat repetitive for sure。 The many citations of his memos and The Most Important Thing serve well as a recap but work less well for me as I’m hoping for new insights。 Even through， I still think the book worth reading。 I still gained some knowledge which is worthy， even it’s not efficient。 The repeating themes did frustrate me a little， but I hope this reenforced my memory and made some long-term impact to my thinking。 。。。more
Cameron
，
While not as boring as other financial books it still drags as its way to long。 I would recommend listing to this one at a fast pace or getting a smaller summary。 Essichanly markets more in a wave。 This wave can be over 10 to 50 years but they will go up and down。 Markets also go through stages and act irrationally。 A good book to read but not a MUST。 Nothing ground breaking here。
Tyler Storm
，
It's ok， still a good book but the main theme is covered already by several journalists and brokers in their publications。 I would say his chapters on the debt cycle， real estate cycle， economics， his background as a young analyst， and epilogue discussing the recent coronavirus events are the best parts of the book。 Nice to learn about a local California businessmen who seized his opportunity in a nascent field to establish a leadership position and make some good money in the long run。 I'll for It's ok， still a good book but the main theme is covered already by several journalists and brokers in their publications。 I would say his chapters on the debt cycle， real estate cycle， economics， his background as a young analyst， and epilogue discussing the recent coronavirus events are the best parts of the book。 Nice to learn about a local California businessmen who seized his opportunity in a nascent field to establish a leadership position and make some good money in the long run。 I'll for sure subscribe to this guys memos though。 He is pretty eloquent and experienced。 Overall a decent and quick read。 。。。more
Anthony Marinelli
，
The book that claims to help make masters of economic cycles， doesn’t go beyond surface level knowledge。 I must admit， I was previously familiar with Howard Marks’s work at Oaktree and some of his memos over the years but not this book or its predecessor “The Most Important Things”。 I came into this book hoping to see some unique metrics or a different way of looking at the market during each cycle。 A way to look or to see rhythms that have repeated over time besides ‘risk off/ risk on’ mentalit The book that claims to help make masters of economic cycles， doesn’t go beyond surface level knowledge。 I must admit， I was previously familiar with Howard Marks’s work at Oaktree and some of his memos over the years but not this book or its predecessor “The Most Important Things”。 I came into this book hoping to see some unique metrics or a different way of looking at the market during each cycle。 A way to look or to see rhythms that have repeated over time besides ‘risk off/ risk on’ mentality。 The closest the book comes to measuring is in line graph that are more similar to economic theories than financial markets。 The book does convey some of the intricacies of each of the types of recessions over the years， where liquidity is the most needed and where you need to watch foreign markets closer， and the impacts of different types of slowdowns。 Howard Marks is quite obviously a well-read individual， citing people across the board from Mark Twain to Warren Buffet but his work is better utilized in short memos or spoken word。In the latter part of the book， each chapter feels as if it will be the last all while reiterating the same few points， yet it continues， making it very tough to finish。 Howard Marks struggles to define his audience continuously throughout the book， switching freely between the regular long equity investor and the next MBS BBB Tranche takers or fund managers。 One moment talking about drops in Xerox stock and the next defunct debt。 It gives the feel this book was written over a long period of time。 Overall， the book isn’t worth the read， with repetitive teachings， too many references to his own previous works， and lack of real-world detail on his stories， it will struggle to capture even the edgiest of financial market lovers。 I would recommend Ray Dalio’s Principles book if you want a fund manager’s biography， “This time is different” by Carmen Reinhart & Kenneth S。 Rogoff for Financial analysis of downturns， and “Manias， Panics， and Crashes” by Charles P。 Kindleberger & Robert Z。 Aliber for a better economic theory。 。。。more
Jon
，
Good read， key is reversion to the mean
Jon
，
40/100: Mother of all repetition， my gosh dang
Austin
，
1。 How do you quantify market sentiment and where we are in a cycle？2。 How do you position capital at the peak position in a cycle？ Don’t want to miss out on an opportunity
Daniel Milford
，
Denne mannen er en gudegave。 Han gjentar og reformulerer poengene sine så mange ganger at hvis du ikke har skjønt greia når boka er ferdig er alt håp ute。 Men heller gjøre seg forstått enn å gape over for mye。
Bk
，
Good book with good ideas but too repetitive and long for no reason。 Could have been half the length which would make it more readable every few years as a reminder。
Randy
，
This book has some great information and I really highly recommend it for that reason alone。 The bad part about this book is it's super repetitive。 I found myself wading through chapters feeling confused because it didn't feel like I was getting the point of what the author was saying， but on closer inspection would find that he was just saying the same thing a different way。 The last chapter is a summary of the preceding chapters， and if you're more accustomed to concise delivery of information This book has some great information and I really highly recommend it for that reason alone。 The bad part about this book is it's super repetitive。 I found myself wading through chapters feeling confused because it didn't feel like I was getting the point of what the author was saying， but on closer inspection would find that he was just saying the same thing a different way。 The last chapter is a summary of the preceding chapters， and if you're more accustomed to concise delivery of information， probably it would be helpful to read that first。 。。。more
Raksmey Samleng
，
The right book at the right time is the best 😌
Deni Vargová
，
A lot of the things mentioned in this book were not new to me， but it also never hurts to think about them again and be reminded of some of the principles。 However， it did get better towards the end with some helpful insights so I would still recommend it as a light reading if you are interested in investing。
Charles
，
Great concepts， but very repetitive
Britton Bush
，
Excellent insight。 Highly objective。 Philosophical。 Perhaps somewhat repetitive。 Highly recommend to students and learners of investing。
元伟 陈
，
Another great book compiled from the writings of Mr Howard Marks。 It contains lots of cautionary stories experienced first hand by the author。 I like the chapter on Cycle of Success where he mentioned that the seeds of failures lies in success and the seeds of success lies in failures。 How do we prevent this in our everyday lives？
Jack Wu
，
Amazing book
Nitin Bhatt
，
Although it feels repeated sometimes， but afterall we are talking about cycles in here。
Anirudh Patir
，
Pretty sure he goes through the concepts but it's written in such convoluted way I couldn't really understand it。 Maybe just me。 Pretty sure he goes through the concepts but it's written in such convoluted way I couldn't really understand it。 Maybe just me。 。。。more
Erol Cimen
，
Some good stuff， like the purpose of central banks and basic economics， but mostly common sense stuff and hard to get through tbh
Charles
，
有一些机械周期论的嫌疑，每一个周期的生产机制其实还是很不一样的。
Aravinthakannan
，
Underlines the importance of cyclicity of events in nature and applies them to understand the markets。 Combining economics， mathematics and psychology interprets the need for market participants to utilize the information at their disposal to make better informed investment decisions with stable emotional fortitude。
Biplob Moni Dutta
，
Important Chapters :Chapter 4， 6， 7， 9， 10 & Last Chapter i。e。 18。
Martin Van
，