Gambling on Development
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- Create Date：2022-06-25 08:52:22
- Update Date：2025-09-06
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- Author：Stefan Dercon
- ISBN：1787385620
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Summary
In the last thirty years， the developing world has undergone tremendous changes。 Overall， poverty has fallen， people live longer and healthier lives， and economies have been transformed。 And yet many countries have simply missed the boat。 Why have some countries prospered， while others have failed？
Stefan Dercon argues that the answer lies not in a specific set of policies， but rather in a key ‘development bargain’， whereby a country’s elites shift from protecting their own positions to gambling on a growth-based future。 Despite the imperfections of such bargains， China is among the most striking recent success stories， along with Indonesia and more unlikely places， such as Bangladesh， Ghana and Ethiopia。 Gambling on Development is about these winning efforts， in contrast to countries stuck in elite bargains leading nowhere。
Building on three decades’ experience across forty-odd countries， Dercon winds his narrative through Ebola in Sierra Leone， scandals in Malawi， beer factories in the DRC， mobile phone licences in Mozambique， and relief programmes behind enemy lines in South Sudan。 Weaving together conversations with prime ministers， civil servants and ordinary people， this is a probing look at how development has been achieved across the world， and how to assist such successes。
Stefan Dercon argues that the answer lies not in a specific set of policies， but rather in a key ‘development bargain’， whereby a country’s elites shift from protecting their own positions to gambling on a growth-based future。 Despite the imperfections of such bargains， China is among the most striking recent success stories， along with Indonesia and more unlikely places， such as Bangladesh， Ghana and Ethiopia。 Gambling on Development is about these winning efforts， in contrast to countries stuck in elite bargains leading nowhere。
Building on three decades’ experience across forty-odd countries， Dercon winds his narrative through Ebola in Sierra Leone， scandals in Malawi， beer factories in the DRC， mobile phone licences in Mozambique， and relief programmes behind enemy lines in South Sudan。 Weaving together conversations with prime ministers， civil servants and ordinary people， this is a probing look at how development has been achieved across the world， and how to assist such successes。
Reviews
Alex
，
Excited to be the second person to review this book！ This book is humbly written but enhanced by the author’s extensive firsthand experience of development work across the world。 Part 1 focuses on explaining what the author terms the development bargain - some sort of agreement among a country’s elite to pursue economic growth and development。 This is the lens then through which development is discussed throughout the rest of the book。 It’s worth mentioning as well the incredibly useful summarie Excited to be the second person to review this book！ This book is humbly written but enhanced by the author’s extensive firsthand experience of development work across the world。 Part 1 focuses on explaining what the author terms the development bargain - some sort of agreement among a country’s elite to pursue economic growth and development。 This is the lens then through which development is discussed throughout the rest of the book。 It’s worth mentioning as well the incredibly useful summaries of the key books on international development in part 1。 Part 2 then moves on to examine various countries （mostly ones where the author has worked or visited）。 There is a particular focus on the elite bargain in these countries， and it is demonstrated again and again that takeoff growth can only be achieved if a country’s elite focus first and foremost put their minds to achieving economic growth。 Part 3 is primarily a discussion of aid which， whilst informative， feels somewhat repetitive。 There is little new ground covered。 The author spends most of his time reiterating that aid is most useful in countries where there is a development bargain already in place。 He then goes on， however， to conclude confusingly with a short section on how aid can be used to help create development bargains。Overall， the book is informative， insightful， and extremely rationally and well written。 That being said， the metaphor of gambling is unclear and doesn’t add much to the author’s general message。 。。。more
Jonas
，
This review has been hidden because it contains spoilers。 To view it， click here。 This is a great book for insights into how development actually works in countries。 Its deeply informed by country expertise， personal professional experiences and decades of research。 It gives an ecclectic view on development that puts at the centre stage the interaction between politics and economics and the need for a political commitment to development。 There are too many good insights to summarize here。 Let me only give four points of criticism to explain what could have been better imho: 1 This is a great book for insights into how development actually works in countries。 Its deeply informed by country expertise， personal professional experiences and decades of research。 It gives an ecclectic view on development that puts at the centre stage the interaction between politics and economics and the need for a political commitment to development。 There are too many good insights to summarize here。 Let me only give four points of criticism to explain what could have been better imho: 1。 The book claims to be about overall development but in the end focusses too strongly on how certain political actors （who the author had most contact with） affect development。 For me， this was super interesting because the book was informed by personal insights into closed door policymaking that is often inaccessible to outsiders interested in development （like me）。 But given the claim of generality， I felt it was too restrictive。 2。 Relatedly， I felt the mechanisms through which high level political decision-making affects development （e。g。 economic growth） was underexplored。 For me （& I would claim research on development econ more generally）， these links are not super clear。 E。g。 does the development bargain affect development mostly through expectations （people and businesses investing in their future）， through reducing frictions （e。g。 reducing petty corruption as discussed in great chapters on Nigeria & Ethiopia） or through even other channels？ Also， it seemed to be implied that development is something that happens rather directly: elites commit to development and economic growth and prosperity follows。 But many gains probably play out over longer time horizons。 E。g。 investing in early childhood education probably only pays off in GDP some decades later。 3。 I felt the metaphor of a gamble on development was more confusing than helpful。 The author forcefully shows that many roads lead to development or to stagnation （e。g。 Bangladesh vs Indonesia vs Uganda or Malawi）。 But according to the metaphor， there should be countries with a development bargain who fail to develop （those who lose the gamble） - i didnt see any example for this。 It was also unclear exactly who was gambling here。 It should be the elites but it wasnt clear that the elites have more to lose from gambling on development than gambling on rent-seeking and stagnation。 4。 At last， the policy conclusions were insightful but not always obviously following from the previous analyses。 E。g。 while I buy the idea that a development bargain is needed for development， it is not immediately evident to me that aid is better spent in countries with a development bargain。 While I might be ignorant here， the evidence shown for this seemed to be based less on rigorous empirical evidence。 There clearly is an issue of spurious correlation in that practitioners might more easily conceive aid as beneficial if the entire economy and society are improving （as in case of a development bargain）。 I would have liked to see better evidence on this point。 。。。more
Reference
google book https://www.google.com/search?tbm=bks&q=Gambling on Development
hathitrust digital library https://babel.hathitrust.org/cgi/ls?q1=Gambling on Development&field1=ocr&a=srchls&ft=ft&lmt=ft