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The Next 100 Years: A Forecast for the 21st Century

The Next 100 Years: A Forecast for the 21st Century

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  • Create Date：2022-03-31 09:54:24
  • Update Date：2025-09-06
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  • Author：George Friedman
  • ISBN：0767923057
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Summary

A fascinating， eye-opening and often shocking look at what lies ahead for the U。S。 and the world from one of our most incisive futurists。
 
In his thought-provoking new book， George Friedman， founder of STRATFOR—the preeminent private intelligence and forecasting firm—focuses on what he knows best， the future。 Positing that civilization is at the dawn of a new era， he offers a lucid， highly readable forecast of the changes we can expect around the world during the twenty-first century all based on his own thorough analysis and research。 For example， The U。S。-Jihadist war will be replaced by a new cold war with Russia; China’s role as a world power will diminish; Mexico will become an important force on the geopolitical stage; and new technologies and cultural trends will radically alter the way we live （and fight wars）。 Riveting reading from first to last， The Next 100 Years is a fascinating exploration of what the future holds for all of us。

For continual， updated analysis and supplemental material， go to www。Stratfor。com

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Reviews

Iryna Gotovchenko ，

Случайно узнала о книге。 В ней Фридман предсказывает， что произойдет в ближайшее столетие。 Книга издана в 2009-м и читалась тогда как безумнейшая фантастика。 Фридман сразу в предисловии говорит， что предсказывать на сто лет вперед - это значит анализировать тренды и смотреть， какие у них будут последствия。 Особенно внимательно читала главу : "Россия 2020: реванш"。 Фридман писал в 2009-м， что развязанная Россией война в Восточной Европе в начале 2020-х годов станет первым геополитическим потрясен Случайно узнала о книге。 В ней Фридман предсказывает， что произойдет в ближайшее столетие。 Книга издана в 2009-м и читалась тогда как безумнейшая фантастика。 Фридман сразу в предисловии говорит， что предсказывать на сто лет вперед - это значит анализировать тренды и смотреть， какие у них будут последствия。 Особенно внимательно читала главу : "Россия 2020: реванш"。 Фридман писал в 2009-м， что развязанная Россией война в Восточной Европе в начале 2020-х годов станет первым геополитическим потрясением 21-го века в мире и приведет к окончательному распаду России несколько лет спустя в первой половине 2020-х годов。looking forward to it！！！ 。。。more

Anna Ivanchenko ，

Yet another analyst from the West who believed that Ukraine is strongly pro-Russian。 The other forecasts of his are worth the same， I imagine。

Luciano ，

This review has been hidden because it contains spoilers。 To view it， click here。 Author focus more on geopolitics and focus on USA。 Hypthothesis are interesting however that's so far away that prediction like this is almost like science fiction。 Author focus more on geopolitics and focus on USA。 Hypthothesis are interesting however that's so far away that prediction like this is almost like science fiction。 。。。more

Michael Dubakov ，

Good:- Demographic trends and consequences。- Explanation of USA supremacy by geolocation and access to both oceans。- Examples that future is almost impossible to predict and conventional methods don't work- Good explanation of Russia problems I agree with。Bad:- I afraid unconventional methods don't work as well， since authors predictions are hard to believe to。 But we will see。 - Underestimation of China （however， justified by authors） with a rapid China decline。- Overestimation of USA （however， Good:- Demographic trends and consequences。- Explanation of USA supremacy by geolocation and access to both oceans。- Examples that future is almost impossible to predict and conventional methods don't work- Good explanation of Russia problems I agree with。Bad:- I afraid unconventional methods don't work as well， since authors predictions are hard to believe to。 But we will see。 - Underestimation of China （however， justified by authors） with a rapid China decline。- Overestimation of USA （however， justified by authors）- Ignorance of nuclear weapon- Unbelievable WW3- Ignorance of global warming （but with few sentences that green power will save us）I enjoyed the first part of the book， but then it got weird。 。。。more

ilya murychev ，

Немного провокационная книга， но не лишена пикантности。 Прочитать стоит。

Jay ，

It's tough to make predictions， especially about the future。 It's tough to make predictions， especially about the future。 。。。more

Elena ，

Бомба！ - особенно в свете последних событий。

محمد الحسيني ，

قرأته بعد ١٣ سنة من نشره، وللأسف وجدت أكثره محض تُرَّاهات لم تحدث ولن تحدث بطبيعة الحال。وهذا لا ينفي أن جورج فريدمان نفسه لديه عقلية موسوعية تحليلية من الطراز الرفيع، وأن نظرته السياسية فريدة، وأن كتابه ينظر لطبيعة العالم وديموغرافيته نظرة موضوعية وئيدة، ومع ذلك لم يُسعفه الحظ في الكثير من تنبؤاته، وتصوراته。الكتاب على أي حال مفيد من الناحية التحليلية، وخاصة نصفه الأول، ويرجع ذلك إلى عدة أمور أهمهما منهجية الكاتب الإبداعية؛ والتي تربط التاريخ والجغرافيا؛ وتصهرهما في بواتق شتَّى، لِتَسكُب سوائلها قرأته بعد ١٣ سنة من نشره، وللأسف وجدت أكثره محض تُرَّاهات لم تحدث ولن تحدث بطبيعة الحال。وهذا لا ينفي أن جورج فريدمان نفسه لديه عقلية موسوعية تحليلية من الطراز الرفيع، وأن نظرته السياسية فريدة، وأن كتابه ينظر لطبيعة العالم وديموغرافيته نظرة موضوعية وئيدة، ومع ذلك لم يُسعفه الحظ في الكثير من تنبؤاته، وتصوراته。الكتاب على أي حال مفيد من الناحية التحليلية، وخاصة نصفه الأول، ويرجع ذلك إلى عدة أمور أهمهما منهجية الكاتب الإبداعية؛ والتي تربط التاريخ والجغرافيا؛ وتصهرهما في بواتق شتَّى، لِتَسكُب سوائلها في قوالب سياسية متباينة؛ فَتُسْبَك سَبْكَاً سَبْكَاً تتفاوت سيماءاتها بحسبِ المسارات الجيوسياسية، ومقتضيات الحال。وبالاستعانة بالإحصاءات والأرقام يستطيع فريدمان القفز بالتكهنات، والاستشرافات。الكتاب يزخر برؤى سياسية واقعية وإجمالية، ومناهج تصنيف، وتحليل، ويجمع بين طياته مختصراً عذباً لمائتي سنة على الأقل من تاريخ هذا الكوكب。ومع أن جورج فريدمان يبني منهجه الاستشرافي على معلوماته، ورؤاه السياسية، والتحليلية، وليس على منهجيات الاستشراف المعتمدة، أو أنماطه المعهودة، إلا أنه يتلمس مواطن فريدة، ويشتمل على استبصارات مميزة。وإجمالاً فإن هذا الكتاب لا يُمثل إلا رؤية كاتبه المبنية على معلوماته، وطبيعة تصوراته، وهو خارج عن أطُر ومنهجيات الاستشراف العلمي المتعارف عليها。 دأب جورج فريدمان على نثر الكثير من المعلومات والحقائق في كل فصل، والقيام بعمليات المعالجة والتحليل، ومن ثمَّ الاستنباط بشكلٍ مستمر؛ للدرجة التي يطيش فيها التركيز أحياناً، لكنه يروي الظمأ في الأخير بصفحة أو صفحتين فيهما خلاصة المزج والتراكيب، ليُبسِّط الأمر، ويوضِّح الصورة。وخلاصة القول في هذا الكتاب أنه يقدم رؤية مخضرمة للواقع السياسي في عصره، ويجمع أوصال هذا العالم في ربطٍ حصيفٍ، واستبصارٍ مُنيف。وبِغضِّ الطرف معظم تكهنات الكاتب التي صعقها القدر، إلا أن الكتاب سيظل جيداً، وفريداً، وثقيلاً。 。。。more

mistersplice （Nick Manteris） ，

An elucidating example of how wrong models can be

Dale Cheesman ，

Don't worry， folks， it's ALL good news！ Time to party！ Don't worry， folks， it's ALL good news！ Time to party！ 。。。more

Vinothraj ，

2 stars - one for the amount of thought that would have gone into thisone for the inkling of the current Russia-Ukraine warRemoving stars for being USA/Russia/China/Japan/EU focused。 Hardly a word about India/Pak/Africa。

Doug ，

Listened on Audible。 Interesting stuff

Tomas Henao Ramírez ，

Awesome book。 Fully recommended。

Michael Xenos ，

Some of the forecasting seems spot on， some not， but a fun read altogether

Ayaz Khan ，

This was fun to read。 Some of the predictions Friedman made in this book have already come true。 The rest are bold and don't make sense to the reader。 The author admits that himself， and compares it to the fact that for someone in the twentieth century trying to predict the twenty-first century would have thought the things that happened in the twenty-first century inexplicable too。 His thought process is to question the expected， and move from there。 The entire book centres around geopolitics， This was fun to read。 Some of the predictions Friedman made in this book have already come true。 The rest are bold and don't make sense to the reader。 The author admits that himself， and compares it to the fact that for someone in the twentieth century trying to predict the twenty-first century would have thought the things that happened in the twenty-first century inexplicable too。 His thought process is to question the expected， and move from there。 The entire book centres around geopolitics， economics， and war。 Even if those aren't your favourite topics to read on， what he has to present in this book will make for an interesting read。 。。。more

Harris ，

I treated this book as a light， speculative and not too serious read of the future of the 21st century geopolitics。 In this fashion， it was highly entertaining and even gleamed plenty of insights。 I found it via Kindle Unlimited， so it was an easy 'purchase'。 One thing I was pleasantly surprised was with certain factors Friedman was already thinking of a decade ago， such as declining fertility rates and its effects upon immigration and the impending population pyramid economic crisis。 I guess an I treated this book as a light， speculative and not too serious read of the future of the 21st century geopolitics。 In this fashion， it was highly entertaining and even gleamed plenty of insights。 I found it via Kindle Unlimited， so it was an easy 'purchase'。 One thing I was pleasantly surprised was with certain factors Friedman was already thinking of a decade ago， such as declining fertility rates and its effects upon immigration and the impending population pyramid economic crisis。 I guess analysts are supposed to think of them but being part of the general public， I've only noticed these things come to the limelight for the last few years。 Anyways， it was cool to see him extend these present occurrences into the logical next step。 So a declining fertility rate means a stagnating population growth which means labor gets more valued which means immigration becomes prized。 Other things such as soldiers' lives get more valued too， thereby pushing investment into things like robotic or autonomous technology。 These notions certainly bring food for thought。 Friedman also brings plenty of history to his approach， and utilises it as an outline of a general pattern we can see with certain nations in certain markers of theirs' such as geography or natural resources。 One example that is a foundation of this book is the United States' virtually untouchable geography。 It was a sizeable advantage in the WW2 and the Cold War and it will continue to be one。 Another example is Japan's weakness for natural resources and its essential importing of energy。 This played a dominant effect in WW2 and likewise， will continue to do so。 This may be the book to finally make me pivot from watching YouTube clips of geopolitical takes （with guilty pleasure）， to reading books on geopolitical takes （again， with guilty pleasure）。 Geopolitics is a fascinating way to view the world and I hope to learn more about it。 I would appreciate any recommendations！ 。。。more

David Tz ，

A must read for anyone who believes in "new world order" BS or just curious about what the future may hold。 Although 30 years out of date， it still holds relevance to today's social climate and many predictions presented in the 1990s have now come to past。 A must read for anyone who believes in "new world order" BS or just curious about what the future may hold。 Although 30 years out of date， it still holds relevance to today's social climate and many predictions presented in the 1990s have now come to past。 。。。more

Hosam ，

Most of his predictions are wrong so far and biased

Matt Williams ，

A fascinating portrait of the upcoming century from a geopolitical perspective。 The time since this was written has felt so dramatic， that I wonder to what extent the author would persist in his arguments。 He discounts China as a "paper tiger" that will not have a large impact on the world this century， which becomes more and more difficult to imagine。 His thinking about international relations is dominated by the geographical realities he views as self evident - ie China， Iran， Pakistan， etc ca A fascinating portrait of the upcoming century from a geopolitical perspective。 The time since this was written has felt so dramatic， that I wonder to what extent the author would persist in his arguments。 He discounts China as a "paper tiger" that will not have a large impact on the world this century， which becomes more and more difficult to imagine。 His thinking about international relations is dominated by the geographical realities he views as self evident - ie China， Iran， Pakistan， etc cannot possibly become a problem to the United States driven world order because they are geographically hemmed in。 I'm unsure that I am convinced by this argument。 While such borders no doubt impact power projection capabilities， one or two hundred years ago no one would have thought a single nation could effectively project power over all the world's oceans simultaneously。 We are rapidly running upon the deadline he sets for the collapse of China back into an isolationist state， which may impact the way you read his other predictions。 He also has some fairly specific beliefs about future lines of research in energy development， fully believing that space based solar panels will be the future of electrical generation for the world。 In a similar note， he believes the US will derive much of its staying power in the latter half of the century from the militarization of space。 I'm unsure other nations would allow the US to become so dominant in this area， no doubt seeing as well as the US Administration that such an advantage would be nigh on insurmountable。 On the other hand， the author captures what I believe to be a fairly accurate portrait of the American psyche - that of a culture manically flipping between self confidence and tremendous self doubt。 He argues that the United State's prerogative， it's overriding "strategic goal"， is simply the disruption of any block of power that could compete with it。 I think this is insightful， cutting through the noise that surrounds much of the United State's foreign involvements to the core of the issue。 Anyway I'm bad at writing reviews and this turned into more of a book report， but it got me thinking and I enjoyed it。 I would recommend。 。。。more

Papa ，

This review has been hidden because it contains spoilers。 To view it， click here。 Insightful and thought provoking， lot's of hypothesis but well researched and written。 China ， Turkey， Russia and Poland polar world something to watch。 Insightful and thought provoking， lot's of hypothesis but well researched and written。 China ， Turkey， Russia and Poland polar world something to watch。 。。。more

Gemma Hegarty ，

A very American centric view and extrapolation of historical actions， and imaginative views on the use of future technologies。 If you like， it could almost be a book on how leaders could use geopolitical arguments to avoid manipulative behaviours。

Steven Burt ，

Fascinating attempt to forecast the geopolitical future of the world。 I especially like the way he portrays the relationships between the US and its allies and foes。 The last decade has seen some things unfold and others veer slightly from his educated guesses but it's definitely worth checking his ideas out。 Fascinating attempt to forecast the geopolitical future of the world。 I especially like the way he portrays the relationships between the US and its allies and foes。 The last decade has seen some things unfold and others veer slightly from his educated guesses but it's definitely worth checking his ideas out。 。。。more

Daniel Mitchell ，

As of 2021 he's batting around 。500。 Thoughtful。 As of 2021 he's batting around 。500。 Thoughtful。 。。。more

Halil AZMAN ，

Ww3？

Brian Mele ，

This book was so boring at times it made me want to cry

Sylwin ，

Interesting insights， yet， or perhaps all the more because it is what we in the Netherlands call 'koffiedik kijken' （'reading tealeaves'）。 Interesting insights， yet， or perhaps all the more because it is what we in the Netherlands call 'koffiedik kijken' （'reading tealeaves'）。 。。。more

August Hahn ，

I think I would have found this book more compelling had I read it before I read the works by Nassim Taleb。

Harald ，

russia still standing post 2020

Erik Hermeler ，

Leuke en interessante stukken。 Sommige te kort door de bocht。

Jim ，

While the author himself makes the case that futurist work is often wrong but must be performed based on all available information available at the time he misses the mark in many cases in this book， at least in my opinion。 His view of China as not becoming a major player in world politics and the total collapse of Russia are two cases specifically， especially as we enter the second decade of this century both are increasing in military power and global influence， especially as the United States While the author himself makes the case that futurist work is often wrong but must be performed based on all available information available at the time he misses the mark in many cases in this book， at least in my opinion。 His view of China as not becoming a major player in world politics and the total collapse of Russia are two cases specifically， especially as we enter the second decade of this century both are increasing in military power and global influence， especially as the United States is so divided and politically unstable at the same time。 Some of his other portents will be interesting to watch in the next twenty years。 If for nothing more than the thought exercise this book is worth reading。 。。。more

Reference

google book https://www.google.com/search?tbm=bks&q=The Next 100 Years: A Forecast for the 21st Century

hathitrust digital library https://babel.hathitrust.org/cgi/ls?q1=The Next 100 Years: A Forecast for the 21st Century&field1=ocr&a=srchls&ft=ft&lmt=ft

The British Library https://bll01.primo.exlibrisgroup.com/discovery/search?query=any,contains,The Next 100 Years: A Forecast for the 21st Century&tab=LibraryCatalog&search_scope=Not_BL_Suppress&vid=44BL_INST:BLL01&lang=en&offset=0