The Black Swan: The Impact of the Highly Improbable
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- Create Date：2021-03-27 13:19:35
- Update Date：2025-09-06
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- Author：Nassim Nicholas Taleb
- ISBN：0141034599
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Summary
In Black Swan: The Impact of The Highly Improbable， the author projects randomness and uncertainty as a single idea。 He puts forth a theory that promotes the idea and value of a society that stands robust in the face of negative events， and manipulates the positive ones to its advantage。According to Taleb， a Black Swan event is a rare event that has large magnitude and powerful consequences owing to its unpredictability。 Such an event is initially a surprise to its observer， but is rationalized by him/her in retrospect。 World War I， the rise of the Internet， and the 9/11 attacks on the World Trade Center are cited as examples of Black Swan events。 Taleb introduces a fictional character called Yevgenia Nikolayevna Krasnova to elucidate his theory。 Krasnova is a neuroscientist， who is interested in philosophy。 She writes a book called A Story Of Recursion。 A small publishing firm picks up the book and publishes it in its unedited form。 In an unexpected turn of events， the book goes on to become an international bestseller， catapulting the author and the publishing firm to fame。 This event is described as a Black Swan Event。The book is divided into four parts。 Part 1 and the first section of Part 2 deal with psychology。 The author then moves on to the subjects of science and business in the later part of Part 2 and the whole of Part 3。 Part 4 provides strategies to enjoy life amidst all the uncertainties in the world。 The book was first released in 2007 and went on to become extremely successful。 It was listed by The Sunday Times as one of the 12 most influential books post World War II。 It stayed on The New York Times bestseller list for 36 weeks。 It was published in 32 languages， and sold almost 3 million copies as of February 2011。
Reviews
Morteza Noori
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این کتاب عالیه و یکی از بهترین کتابها در نگرش من به زندگی بودThis book was great and influenced in my life
Sofie Phan
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Đối với những bạn học kinh tế hoặc các bạn yêu thích môn toán， xác suất thống kê thì có vẻ quyển này sẽ phù hợp và tạo được cho các bạn sự hứng thú nhiều hơn。 Còn về một con thuần những môn xã hội như mình thì quyển sách chỉ nên dừng ở hết phần 1。Mình bị cuốn hút ở phần giới thiệu nhưng vào phần nội dung thì。。。phải kiên nhẫn lắm mới đọc hết phần 1。Tác giả có lối viết khá độc đáo， đưa ví dụ nhiều （đến mức không cần thiết）。 Ông kể chuyện nhiều và đôi khi làm mình mất kiên nhẫn kinh khủng。 Tuy nhiê Đối với những bạn học kinh tế hoặc các bạn yêu thích môn toán， xác suất thống kê thì có vẻ quyển này sẽ phù hợp và tạo được cho các bạn sự hứng thú nhiều hơn。 Còn về một con thuần những môn xã hội như mình thì quyển sách chỉ nên dừng ở hết phần 1。Mình bị cuốn hút ở phần giới thiệu nhưng vào phần nội dung thì。。。phải kiên nhẫn lắm mới đọc hết phần 1。Tác giả có lối viết khá độc đáo， đưa ví dụ nhiều （đến mức không cần thiết）。 Ông kể chuyện nhiều và đôi khi làm mình mất kiên nhẫn kinh khủng。 Tuy nhiên có đôi chỗ mình thấy ông cho quan điểm một chiều mà không hề có giải thích hay chứng minh。 Quyển này mình nghĩ nên thu gọn lại còn tầm 300-400 trang sẽ ổn hơn 。-。 。。。more
Deepak Palani
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Black swan teaches you how to see risk with a new set of lenses。 And why the bell curve is not the ideal thing。
William Hillock
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Listened to the audio book， would not recommend。Very heavy and technical， not easy to digest in audio form， but that could just be me。
Isaac Richards
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For the first couple chapters I thought it possible I'd rate this book 5 stars， but from there， rehashing the same point creates diminishing returns。 Had the author stopped halfway through， I'd have given it 4 stars。 For the first couple chapters I thought it possible I'd rate this book 5 stars， but from there， rehashing the same point creates diminishing returns。 Had the author stopped halfway through， I'd have given it 4 stars。 。。。more
Fadwa
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A very deep informative book， that answered lots of questions I had when I was studying Statistics。 It definitely discuss some critical issues based on experience in real world data/situations。 Which I had encountered while trying to make sense of all of the "assumptions" that were set before each theory 。。 while I ask myself 。。 what if my data did not fulfill all of these assumptions ？！and the rule of large numbers was always the answer because it is gonna get me back to the normal distribution A very deep informative book， that answered lots of questions I had when I was studying Statistics。 It definitely discuss some critical issues based on experience in real world data/situations。 Which I had encountered while trying to make sense of all of the "assumptions" that were set before each theory 。。 while I ask myself 。。 what if my data did not fulfill all of these assumptions ？！and the rule of large numbers was always the answer because it is gonna get me back to the normal distribution which answers everything。 "none sense" was my comment ALWAYS。 It is a must read for all researchers， despite the author's personality issues whos pretending to be French form a Greek village！！ 。。。more
Iulia Iosep
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The best book I ever read！
Hadiana Sliwa
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The book is great but it's too much long。 The book is great but it's too much long。 。。。more
TheMighty Zuru
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Mind expanding and breaking away from generally accepted principles and practices of the society。
David Shirk
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Really important concepts， delightful style and content， often hilarious， but at times painfully repetitive。 I used it to fall asleep at night。 I had a much easier time with fooled by randomness， which introduced the black swan concept， but didn’t go nearly as far in-depth。 I do find that I am reading financial publications through a much more critical lens now， which I always have， but now have a vocabulary to combat the false logic running rampant。
Kristie
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Interesting ideas， but could not get past the pretentious-erudite tone that obfuscated said ideas to the point that every paragraph made me roll my eyes。 Also annoying was the author's holier-than-thou attitude towards watching TV/consuming mainstream media （to paraphrase， "I haven't watched TV for 10 years and that makes me smarter than everyone else in the room"） and his definition of success （fame & fortune）。 Like， I got the gist: people should be more aware of the lack of predictability in t Interesting ideas， but could not get past the pretentious-erudite tone that obfuscated said ideas to the point that every paragraph made me roll my eyes。 Also annoying was the author's holier-than-thou attitude towards watching TV/consuming mainstream media （to paraphrase， "I haven't watched TV for 10 years and that makes me smarter than everyone else in the room"） and his definition of success （fame & fortune）。 Like， I got the gist: people should be more aware of the lack of predictability in the world and of the drastic impact of black swans， etc。 But I'd rather learn more about these ideas from someone who isn't so self-congratulatory and who would likely look down his nose at someone like me。 。。。more
Андрей Гурин
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Классный， сложный
Muktesh Daund
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Interactive way about， How not to behave like turkey。 Worth read to get an insight into things that are unpredictable。
Tom Schulte
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While I find NNT's arguments in favor of power-law functions for models over where we often use traditional "Gaussian" bell curve modeling and generally this interesting and thought-provoking， I find his arrogance off-putting。 This edition includes a book-length epilogue。 While I find NNT's arguments in favor of power-law functions for models over where we often use traditional "Gaussian" bell curve modeling and generally this interesting and thought-provoking， I find his arrogance off-putting。 This edition includes a book-length epilogue。 。。。more
Giacomo Cagnano
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Piacevole all'inizio e concordo in parte con le testi dell'autore。 Non possiamo basare le nostre proiezioni future sul passato。 Per il resto lo stesso concetto viene preso e ripreso mille volte in 300 pagine che potevano tranquillamente essere evitate。 Noioso e lungo da digerire。 Vengono fatti moltissimi esempi per allungare il brodo。 Molto pesante come libro。 Piacevole all'inizio e concordo in parte con le testi dell'autore。 Non possiamo basare le nostre proiezioni future sul passato。 Per il resto lo stesso concetto viene preso e ripreso mille volte in 300 pagine che potevano tranquillamente essere evitate。 Noioso e lungo da digerire。 Vengono fatti moltissimi esempi per allungare il brodo。 Molto pesante come libro。 。。。more
Mike Fowler
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Much like Fooled by Randomness: The Hidden Role of Chance in Life and in the Markets brought me a fresh perspective on probability， this brings a much needed perspective on the fringes of the knowable。Written before the financial crisis of 2008， you're aware that this text is highlighting the problem before it happens。 It also pleases me the level of disdain the author holds against economists。 When I first studied economics I was surprised and horrified by the underlying assumption of the ratio Much like Fooled by Randomness: The Hidden Role of Chance in Life and in the Markets brought me a fresh perspective on probability， this brings a much needed perspective on the fringes of the knowable。Written before the financial crisis of 2008， you're aware that this text is highlighting the problem before it happens。 It also pleases me the level of disdain the author holds against economists。 When I first studied economics I was surprised and horrified by the underlying assumption of the rationality principle， a fallacy delights in exposing。There is a lot of subtlety to the logic and it pays the reader to be slow and steady。 As the concluding second edition essay points out， many who skim draw false and fragile conclusions。 The additional essay is interesting in itself as the author notes where he made similar false conclusions in the original text as well as pointing out where people have done the same。I have always been fascinated by the Mandelbrot set and chaos theory， little did I realise that they help deal with the fat tails！ 。。。more
Prabin_p
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Insightful。Under the sickening attitude of the author and the surplus of unnecessary words， lies a simple and potent idea。 This idea， analysis and its practical applications is what makes the book worth reading。
Angelo
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L'ho letteralmente divorato。 Forse uno dei pochi libri che ho letto che cerca di spiegare la realtà per quello che è。 A differenza della credenza comune dettata dalla statistica "classica" sono pochi pochi eventi a dettare il corso della storia。 La realtà è molto più fedele alla legge di Pareto che alla curva Gaussiana。 In poche parole， questo è un libro da leggere assolutamente。 L'ho letteralmente divorato。 Forse uno dei pochi libri che ho letto che cerca di spiegare la realtà per quello che è。 A differenza della credenza comune dettata dalla statistica "classica" sono pochi pochi eventi a dettare il corso della storia。 La realtà è molto più fedele alla legge di Pareto che alla curva Gaussiana。 In poche parole， questo è un libro da leggere assolutamente。 。。。more
Nicolas Leus
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tot p。 170
Teo
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Never had I thought that I would read so much trash talk about a Gaussian model of statistical analysis。Even though I accept and agree with the main premise of this book， i think it's one very annoying read。This book is 70% rant， 30% insight。Throughout the read I felt like I was being addressed by a person with a sense of lesser value （maybe due to his early life in Lebanon or dismissal by academics because of his stock trading background， I don't know）， especially after I read the quote from Al Never had I thought that I would read so much trash talk about a Gaussian model of statistical analysis。Even though I accept and agree with the main premise of this book， i think it's one very annoying read。This book is 70% rant， 30% insight。Throughout the read I felt like I was being addressed by a person with a sense of lesser value （maybe due to his early life in Lebanon or dismissal by academics because of his stock trading background， I don't know）， especially after I read the quote from Alan Greenspan （the then chairman of the federal reserve Bank） supposedly saying that "I'd rather have an opinion of a trader than a mathematician"。I get why this book is considered an important read， I really do， but personally， I believe that a few chapters of Pinker's Enlightenment Now explain most of the points Taleb tried to get across throughout his whole book in a much simpler way and without forceful academic tone， big words and endless names of intellectuals nobody knows just to prove a point。I would actually even empathize with him but his ego obviously does a good enough job of doing it for him anyways。In short， not impressed。 。。。more
Walter Harrington
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This is a book that will make you think。 Taleb's basic premise is that there are "black swans"， fundamentally unpredictable rare events that have a disproportionate effect on life and history （or really， the only effect that matters in the aggregate）， that we ignore because we believe that the world operates by the principle of Gaussian statistics。 Under this worldview， deviations from the average become more and more fleeting as they move away from the average， to the point where we can safely This is a book that will make you think。 Taleb's basic premise is that there are "black swans"， fundamentally unpredictable rare events that have a disproportionate effect on life and history （or really， the only effect that matters in the aggregate）， that we ignore because we believe that the world operates by the principle of Gaussian statistics。 Under this worldview， deviations from the average become more and more fleeting as they move away from the average， to the point where we can safely ignore them altogether。 Taleb， on the other hand， argues that is these large deviations from the norm or the expected that truly shape history。I appreciate much of what is said in the book and the intellectual vantage point that Taleb comes from。 He sits squarely in the tradition of empirical skepticism， which I think is healthy to a point， and is not afraid to call whole disciplines into questions based on what he sees as faulty assumptions。 He also has the mathematical background to understand what he is talking about。I like Taleb's concept of randomness， and even that most of what we collectively see as good and popular in society is the result of chance and luck （whether good or bad luck）， not as much about actual skill or talent。 I also think he brings in good points about our confirmation bias and the need we have to create a narrative to understand the world， though I don't think that's necessarily a bad thing （or that it's always wrong）。 I don't think Taleb would see it as fundamentally bad either， as he himself tells the story of a black swan in narrative form。I do have some issues with Taleb's presentation and concept。 I think it can be taken too far， though he does try to guard against this in the book。 However， if black swans are truly unpredictable， then there is nothing we can do to see them or prepare for them。 This is one of my issues with Taleb's practical applications of the concept。 He advises to put the majority of everything you have （the immediate context is the stock market， but it can have broader applications） in low-risk ventures， while pursuing aggressive， high-risk ventures with the portion of your stuff that you are willing to lose。 After all， black swans can be good as well as they can be bad。 However， I don't understand how you can really know what is high risk or low risk following Taleb's black swan concept。 It's his turkey problem all over again- anything you might view as low risk because it's never had an issue before might be one day away from its death。 Thus， risk is no longer just incalculable， but rather almost meaningless altogether， at least from a practical standpoint。Perhaps I'm missing his point as well。 But this is a good book to challenge your assumptions and to make you really think。 I do not agree with Taleb at every point， but it is definitely worth the read。 Even if the end message is that life is fundamentally unpredictable and you should be prepared for that， that can be a good reality check for us who like to feel like we are actually in control。 。。。more
Colleen Dilenschneider
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This book is more philosophical than empirical， which surprised me。 I will reiterate other reviewers that the author is certainly aggressive， self-important， defensive， repetitive， and rambling。 At the same time， I highlighted over 50 passages and there was some rich thought-fuel - especially in Part One of the book （although there’s less from Part Two onward， in my opinion）。 There were also several assertions that seemed （proudly？） purely contrarian and glib。 This wasn’t a pleasant book to read This book is more philosophical than empirical， which surprised me。 I will reiterate other reviewers that the author is certainly aggressive， self-important， defensive， repetitive， and rambling。 At the same time， I highlighted over 50 passages and there was some rich thought-fuel - especially in Part One of the book （although there’s less from Part Two onward， in my opinion）。 There were also several assertions that seemed （proudly？） purely contrarian and glib。 This wasn’t a pleasant book to read in terms of its tone， but I am glad that I did because provided me with a new perspective to consider and some valuable thinking。 。。。more
Rachel Emery
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I listened to the audiobook after a couple of family members said they liked it。 Maybe it was the narrator of this book but the tone came across as arrogant and too loose with facts for me。 I think he has one good point which could be delivered as a Ted Talk or podcast。 It doesn’t need to be such a long book。 I ended up not finishing it。
Caiper Popen
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How aesthetic this prose was was so eccentric I found it grotesquely delicate。I was planning to read this long before but it had been pulled away far off my book list every time， as I wasn't sure what this book really is all about。 Even after reading the outline and looking at the table of content I couldn't still decide whether this can be categorized in economics， psychology or business until finally I just dove into starting reading。The bizarreness of author's remarks were kind of blunt no do How aesthetic this prose was was so eccentric I found it grotesquely delicate。I was planning to read this long before but it had been pulled away far off my book list every time， as I wasn't sure what this book really is all about。 Even after reading the outline and looking at the table of content I couldn't still decide whether this can be categorized in economics， psychology or business until finally I just dove into starting reading。The bizarreness of author's remarks were kind of blunt no doubt others would find them indecent， insecure and offensive。 But his view was so different， somewhat peculiar from all the books I have read so far and his grotesque writing style made me so engaged I couldn't put down the book If I wouldn't force myself to。 What this book is all about is recognizing the Black Swan。 Long before， people had notion that all swans are white until the discovery of black swan in Australia did people accept the fact that once deemed impossible。 This surprising discovery disregards the normal expectation of previous confirmation。 Thus， the Black Swan event。The turkey in the yard is fed every day。 Every feeding strengthens its belief that it is a general rule of life to be fed by a friendly human。 It's the turkey's normal expectation。 But one day before thanksgiving， something unexpected happens to the turkey。 The Black Swan event。 This will cause a hindsight of belief。 What may a surprise for a turkey is not a surprise for its butcher。 Therefore， avoid being a turkey。According to the author， the success of Google， the outbreak of World War， from the rise of religions to the popularity of Harry Potter and any unexpected， unpredictable and surprising events are the examples of Black Swan。 。。。more
Karol 1995
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Rzeczywiście daje inne spojrzenie na rzeczywistość。
Omar Ismail
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Don’t try to predict complex systems。 Just be prepared for anything。
Federico Castillo
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This book tests how much can you separate the author from the idea。 Is Taleb a dismissive， narcissist， snobbish， prick with a superiority complex？ Yes。 Is there value in what he has to say？ Also， yes。If you can read past his obnoxiousness you will find some interesting ideas buried in the text。 Specially now， in the times of coronavirus， this book is prophetical。 Time has given him many victories。The main point is that one should be very careful when applying abstract mathematics to the real wor This book tests how much can you separate the author from the idea。 Is Taleb a dismissive， narcissist， snobbish， prick with a superiority complex？ Yes。 Is there value in what he has to say？ Also， yes。If you can read past his obnoxiousness you will find some interesting ideas buried in the text。 Specially now， in the times of coronavirus， this book is prophetical。 Time has given him many victories。The main point is that one should be very careful when applying abstract mathematics to the real world。 To Platonify， as he calls it。 Probability theory has a solid theoretical framework in the world of ideas。 On the other hand， in real life the meaning of XYZ candidate has 30% chance of winning means something completely different as in mathematics。 Beware of people who try to assign a probability to a very rare event。He is on point in the Chapter he rants about the normal distribution （mind you， he frantically rants about it through the whole book）。 It is mathematically convenient to assume that process are memory less， that each event is independent of the previous history。 This is the case when flipping a coin for example。 But of course life is not like that。 You apply this reductions at your own risk。I think however that his ideas could have been expressed in a more condensed way。 If he'd gone to one of those 3hr long podcast to explain himself this book will be unnecessary。 Although I can only imagine how insufferable he must be face to face， so yeah， I begrudgingly recommend this book。 。。。more
Stefan Wiersma
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Bijzonder boek！ Verklaringen voor bijzondere gebeurtenissen （financiele crisis） in het verleden worden keihard onderuit gehaald en hij spaart hierbij niemand。 Als je niet oppast wordt je toch een beetje sceptisch ;-）
Gianmaria
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Scusa Taleb ma anche se sei considerando filosofo e scrittore ad alti livelli， questo libro risulta pedante， monotono， ripetitivo。。。。 Oserei quasi noioso。 Potrebbe essere scritto in un terzo delle pagine。Ma soprattutto， da scienziato quale sono， l'interpretazione di fenomeni e statistiche descritte da Taleb sono superficialmente investigate。Non è assolutamente vero che i muscoli di un atleta crescono allo stesso modo sia che corra， nuoti o faccia palestra！！！ Come non è vero che le masse dei pian Scusa Taleb ma anche se sei considerando filosofo e scrittore ad alti livelli， questo libro risulta pedante， monotono， ripetitivo。。。。 Oserei quasi noioso。 Potrebbe essere scritto in un terzo delle pagine。Ma soprattutto， da scienziato quale sono， l'interpretazione di fenomeni e statistiche descritte da Taleb sono superficialmente investigate。Non è assolutamente vero che i muscoli di un atleta crescono allo stesso modo sia che corra， nuoti o faccia palestra！！！ Come non è vero che le masse dei pianeti sono nell'Estremistan。 La "curva a campana" non dice che eventi rari non accadono mai。。。。 Dice che sono appunto rari！！！ Per non parlare della tua versione di ciò che già esisteva come "principio antropico"。。。。Non mi piace fare il detrattore ma questo libro si basa su storielle poco approfondite。 Magari buone filosoficamente parlando ma banali dal punto di vista scientifico。 。。。more
Mayank Rai
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