Mastering the Market Cycle: Getting the Odds on Your Side
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- Create Date：2021-03-25 11:20:49
- Update Date：2025-09-06
- Status：finish
- Author：Howard Marks
- ISBN：0358108489
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Summary
A NEW YORK TIMES， WALL STREET JOURNAL， AND USA TODAY BESTSELLER
The legendary investor shows how to identify and master the cycles that govern the markets。
We all know markets rise and fall， but when should you pull out， and when should you stay in？ The answer is never black or white， but is best reached through a keen understanding of the reasons behind the rhythm of cycles。 Confidence about where we are in a cycle comes when you learn the patterns of ups and downs that influence not just economics， markets， and companies， but also human psychology and the investing behaviors that result。
If you study past cycles， understand their origins and remain alert for the next one， you will become keenly attuned to the investment environment as it changes。 You’ll be aware and prepared while others get blindsided by unexpected events or fall victim to emotions like fear and greed。
By following Marks’s insights—drawn in part from his iconic memos over the years to Oaktree’s clients—you can master these recurring patterns to have the opportunity to improve your results。
The legendary investor shows how to identify and master the cycles that govern the markets。
We all know markets rise and fall， but when should you pull out， and when should you stay in？ The answer is never black or white， but is best reached through a keen understanding of the reasons behind the rhythm of cycles。 Confidence about where we are in a cycle comes when you learn the patterns of ups and downs that influence not just economics， markets， and companies， but also human psychology and the investing behaviors that result。
If you study past cycles， understand their origins and remain alert for the next one， you will become keenly attuned to the investment environment as it changes。 You’ll be aware and prepared while others get blindsided by unexpected events or fall victim to emotions like fear and greed。
By following Marks’s insights—drawn in part from his iconic memos over the years to Oaktree’s clients—you can master these recurring patterns to have the opportunity to improve your results。
Reviews
Sebastien Houdry
，
Definitely one of the best business books I’ve read during the past years。 Mr。 Marks shares valuable insights accumulated over his lifelong exposure to financial markets and its experience of several financial crises。 This book does an amazing job of explaining how all cycles （capital markets， real estate， credit， etc。） are interlinked and impact one another。 Most importantly， it stresses out the importance of investors psychology in creating and inflating cycles， notably during market bubbles o Definitely one of the best business books I’ve read during the past years。 Mr。 Marks shares valuable insights accumulated over his lifelong exposure to financial markets and its experience of several financial crises。 This book does an amazing job of explaining how all cycles （capital markets， real estate， credit， etc。） are interlinked and impact one another。 Most importantly， it stresses out the importance of investors psychology in creating and inflating cycles， notably during market bubbles or crashes。This helps you get a good understanding of the 2008 GFC ， and hopefully - that’s the book’s objective anyway - will help you understand where you’re standing now in the market cycle。The book is well-written， trying too avoid too technical jargon so I’d say it’s addressed to a rather large public。 I would recommend it to anyone who’s interested in investing in the stock market， professionally or personally。 。。。more
Suleman
，
This book is a must read 。 Easy to understand ， not technical and very insightful 。 There is some repetition but only to solidify the main idea which is that markets will continue to cycle and if u ever think that will ever change then u are absolutely wrong ！ Knowing where u are in the cycle is the key to leveraging opportunities that will happen only 4-5 Times in ur life span 。 Otherwise u are just better off staying in the market for ever and not bothering with watching it。
Edward Kuruliouk
，
I like Howard Marks， this book is rather simplistic while written in a sophisticated prose。 Marks discusses a range of cycles within traditional financial markets and their impact on the greater economic cycle。 I dislike the memo-riddled structure of the chapters - constantly referring to previously published memos and articles by the author to address his thesis - but I see the value in it。I don't want to get too deep into the weeds with this review and I feel like my three sentences above succ I like Howard Marks， this book is rather simplistic while written in a sophisticated prose。 Marks discusses a range of cycles within traditional financial markets and their impact on the greater economic cycle。 I dislike the memo-riddled structure of the chapters - constantly referring to previously published memos and articles by the author to address his thesis - but I see the value in it。I don't want to get too deep into the weeds with this review and I feel like my three sentences above succinctly embody my views on the book。 I would recommend this book to anyone interesting in market cycles。 。。。more
Bill Webber
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The final chapter has all the info that is needed。。。the rest of the book embellishes with concrete examples of the principles。。。very key principles I might add！
Tin Mayer
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This review has been hidden because it contains spoilers。 To view it， click here。 A great book about cycles。 Not only cycles in the economy， or in investment， but cycles in general。 We are always trying to build stuff that performs in predictable fashion and we always forget that we do not behave in a predictable fashion。 Humans and human emotions are what contributes the most to the financial cycles， the bull and bear markets。 I would recommend this book mainly to professional investors。 If you want to have the slightest chance of “beating the market” you need to know all th A great book about cycles。 Not only cycles in the economy， or in investment， but cycles in general。 We are always trying to build stuff that performs in predictable fashion and we always forget that we do not behave in a predictable fashion。 Humans and human emotions are what contributes the most to the financial cycles， the bull and bear markets。 I would recommend this book mainly to professional investors。 If you want to have the slightest chance of “beating the market” you need to know all this。 But I would also recommend this book to people interested in improving their personal finances。 You also need to learn these things。 What I took from this book is the conviction that cycles will always exist。 You cannot control them but you can prepare for them and hopefully try to profit from them。 。。。more
Milind Pawar
，
Premise is simple - Financial markets are cyclical， always have been and always will be。 The author compares them to a pendulum！Investor's ability to generate superior returns does not depend on predicting the future， but understanding the present better than the most。 The author suggests two criteria for this - - Identifying the intrinsic value of underlying assets （Quantitative）- Understanding the investor psychology （Qualitative）This book double clicks on one of the chapters from the author's Premise is simple - Financial markets are cyclical， always have been and always will be。 The author compares them to a pendulum！Investor's ability to generate superior returns does not depend on predicting the future， but understanding the present better than the most。 The author suggests two criteria for this - - Identifying the intrinsic value of underlying assets （Quantitative）- Understanding the investor psychology （Qualitative）This book double clicks on one of the chapters from the author's 1st book - The Most Important Thing （2011） but gets repetitive at times while explaining complex concepts。 。。。more
Matthew Svenstrup
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Very repetitive。
Josh Loschen
，
I was pretty underwhelmed by this book。 So much of it comes down to the concept that there is a business cycle and the best time to buy invest is not at the top of the cycle。 That pretty much sums up the majority of this book's content。 That idea gets restated dozens of different ways but it's all the same basic idea。 I was pretty underwhelmed by this book。 So much of it comes down to the concept that there is a business cycle and the best time to buy invest is not at the top of the cycle。 That pretty much sums up the majority of this book's content。 That idea gets restated dozens of different ways but it's all the same basic idea。 。。。more
Zeqiong Huang
，
The idea is pretty clear， and insightful。 Pendulum like market swings。 However， it is not clear， if the book gives a framework to identify where the cycle is。 And it is still not clear why the market always overreacts but not stabilize at the equilibrium。 I guess that's where more rigorous research can add value。 The idea is pretty clear， and insightful。 Pendulum like market swings。 However， it is not clear， if the book gives a framework to identify where the cycle is。 And it is still not clear why the market always overreacts but not stabilize at the equilibrium。 I guess that's where more rigorous research can add value。 。。。more
Juan David Vargas Quiceno
，
El mundo de las inversiones no está tan alejado de la vida común de muchas personas。 Solemos confundir al inversionsta con un señor de corbata que hace cosas muy complicadas， es millonario， y tiene una vida muy agitada。Este libro， aparte de tratar el tema de los ciclos del mercado （que es un poco avanzado）， presenta de manera MUY sencilla muchos conceptos de inversiones para borrar esos pre-conceptos que en general son muy erróneos。Lo que más rescato del libro es que los concejos/conceptos que s El mundo de las inversiones no está tan alejado de la vida común de muchas personas。 Solemos confundir al inversionsta con un señor de corbata que hace cosas muy complicadas， es millonario， y tiene una vida muy agitada。Este libro， aparte de tratar el tema de los ciclos del mercado （que es un poco avanzado）， presenta de manera MUY sencilla muchos conceptos de inversiones para borrar esos pre-conceptos que en general son muy erróneos。Lo que más rescato del libro es que los concejos/conceptos que se presentan pueden aplicarse a distintos ámbitos de la vida real， el mercado puede ser la vida misma y muchas decisiones importantes que tomamos caen en errores típicos que solo notamos cuando ya es muy tarde。1。 Cuántas personas estudian la profesión equivocada solo porque es "la carrera del momento"？2。 Cuantas veces caminamos junto al rebaño sin pensar en un segundo porque lo estamos haciendo？3。 Cuántas oportunidades se nos escapan en la vida por no pensar un segundo y ver el panorama completo？ 。。。more
Sangam Agarwal
，
like his first book you can read it like summary of many great book to learn lot more in very short time
David Han
，
Simple and easy to digest bookMain takeaways:1。 There will always be cycles of excessive optimism followed by excessive pessimism2。 Take care to be aware of your own individual shortcomings and control your emotions when investing3。 Be wary when everyone is bullish and decisive when everyone is bearish
Ian Wagner
，
Solid book on investing。 If I had to make one criticism， it'd be that it's a bit basic/folksy （not in a bad way; he has really good "common sense" insights that are worth repeating） and repetitive。 If you've read "The Most Important Thing，" then some of this will be familiar， but it's still worth reading/listening to。 I found Chapter 11 in particular to be worth the read for the take on real estate， which is probably one of the most misunderstood asset classes in the popular consciousness。 Solid book on investing。 If I had to make one criticism， it'd be that it's a bit basic/folksy （not in a bad way; he has really good "common sense" insights that are worth repeating） and repetitive。 If you've read "The Most Important Thing，" then some of this will be familiar， but it's still worth reading/listening to。 I found Chapter 11 in particular to be worth the read for the take on real estate， which is probably one of the most misunderstood asset classes in the popular consciousness。 。。。more
Von_feng
，
虽然啰嗦且不及上一本书《投资最重要的事》，但还是值得一读。周期一直都在，要警惕那些说“这次不一样”的态度；理解周期，定位周期，评估周期将来的趋势，做好组合布局；每一步都需要谨慎细致的观察和分析，需要做大量的投资功课。马克斯强调了周期的重要性，但是功课还是要自己做的。
Otis Chandler
，
Very interesting book to read during a downcycle。 First few chapters give you the bulk of his points， gets a little repetitive at the end。
A。K。 Vyas
，
One of two investment books that should be required reading。
Justin Lee
，
1。知道週期的特性：階段性、動能，自我修正。2。評估週期的階段：觀察投資人的心理變化，確認我們在的位置。3。應對週期的技巧：切換成『積極』或者『防禦』的模式。
Sailesh Mulleti
，
for investment success the following 2 principles hold good:t• Cycle positioning is a process of deciding on the risk posture of your portfolio in response to your judgements regarding the principle cycles - choosing between aggressiveness and defensiveness， increasing and decreasing exposure to market movementst• Asset positioning is the process of deciding which markets， market niches and specific securities or assets to overweight and underweight
Mathew King
，
The most elegantly written book about buying the dip
Ulf Sthamer
，
History doesn't repeat itself - But this book does！ This book could have been an excellent essay， but you won't learn much more in its form as a book。 It's also not fun to read it。 The author knows what he is talking about - therefore I give it 2 stars。 There is no bad advise in it， but it fails in being clearly structured， being practical or conveying the most important things in a rememberable way。 Such an interesting topic， but apart from the chapter about the credit cycle the author doesn't History doesn't repeat itself - But this book does！ This book could have been an excellent essay， but you won't learn much more in its form as a book。 It's also not fun to read it。 The author knows what he is talking about - therefore I give it 2 stars。 There is no bad advise in it， but it fails in being clearly structured， being practical or conveying the most important things in a rememberable way。 Such an interesting topic， but apart from the chapter about the credit cycle the author doesn't go into new territory。 If you unfortunately bought it already - just read the last chapter and skip the rest， it's like a summary。I have probably learned more about finance in the short conversation I once had with the other Howard Marks （alias Mr。 Nice）。 。。。more
Jason Q
，
Okay， someone gets Howard an editor please。。。It's remarkable how I agree with almost every points in the book yet it's such a rough read。 Howard literally repeated himself a handful of times in this book， almost word by word on multiple occasions。 It really felt like a first draft （and it very well could be published without an editor， IDK）。 Either way， not a whole lot of new material in this book and it honestly felt like a summer intern just copy and paste a bunch of stuff from Howard's past m Okay， someone gets Howard an editor please。。。It's remarkable how I agree with almost every points in the book yet it's such a rough read。 Howard literally repeated himself a handful of times in this book， almost word by word on multiple occasions。 It really felt like a first draft （and it very well could be published without an editor， IDK）。 Either way， not a whole lot of new material in this book and it honestly felt like a summer intern just copy and paste a bunch of stuff from Howard's past memos and published it。。。 Really disappointed since I had high hopes。 Probably would give it a 2。5 if that's an option。。。 。。。more
Karan
，
A gem of a book for a lifetime
Andreas Bjørsvik
，
Howards Marks introduces a great way to think of the economic environment and the sentiment in the stock market。 By imagining the position in the current financial market cycle through observable parameters one can better prepare for possible outcomes in the financial markets。 The inclusion of real-life examples by HM and his Oaktree Capital as well as wisdom from a few selected investors known for their track record further enhances this book。 One drawback is that this book is very repetitive a Howards Marks introduces a great way to think of the economic environment and the sentiment in the stock market。 By imagining the position in the current financial market cycle through observable parameters one can better prepare for possible outcomes in the financial markets。 The inclusion of real-life examples by HM and his Oaktree Capital as well as wisdom from a few selected investors known for their track record further enhances this book。 One drawback is that this book is very repetitive and also includes many references to his other book "the most important thing"。 This makes it less suitable as a stand-alone book。 。。。more
Kaitlin Carson
，
Great investment readGreat book for asset managers trying to get to grips with cycles。 Howard Marks explains things in easy to use terminology and writes in such a way that its an enjoyable read rather than textbook style。 My one criticism would be how much he refers to past letters and his first book， The Most Important Thing， which limits the “new insights” you gain from the book。
Ricardo Santos
，
Full of pratical insights。 Love Howard Marks style。
Cameron Black
，
3。5/5。0。 “Tarih tekerrürden ibarettir。”
Heiki
，
His main point is to not try to time the market and the rest of the book he gives you some pointers if you still want to do it。
Ashwin Nadar
，
Great book。 Gets repetitive most of the time but really drills down the ideas from different directions because Financial memory is short and people often end making similar mistakes despite having made it only recently。 Credit and Economic Cycles are Explained by citing 2008 GFC by breaking down past trends and behaviors of market participants that fuelled it。One can learn a lot of nuances from this book on the subject of how investor psychology creates cycles。 Some key anecdotes from this book Great book。 Gets repetitive most of the time but really drills down the ideas from different directions because Financial memory is short and people often end making similar mistakes despite having made it only recently。 Credit and Economic Cycles are Explained by citing 2008 GFC by breaking down past trends and behaviors of market participants that fuelled it。One can learn a lot of nuances from this book on the subject of how investor psychology creates cycles。 Some key anecdotes from this book :"It's not the data， it's the interpretation" - In good times（virtuous cycles） even bad numbers are interpreted positively and vice versa in vicious cycles or bad times。Before taking a position it's important to question oneself : How much optimism is factored in the price？ Because markets have the tendency to swing from Flawless to Hopeless real fast。The book could have been kept shorter。 If you're already aware of how Economic Cycles work， just read the last chapter， which is a recap of the whole book in typical Marks' style。 。。。more
Joseph
，
Highly relevant and repetitive。 If you practice zen meditation you'll appreciate him saying the same thing over and over。 If not， just read the last chapter and you'll get the recap。 Marks get us to think more responsibly and sustainably。 His writing is for people who care about how to think and don't just want to be told what to think。 I would read his bestseller "The Most Important Thing" before reading this book。 Highly relevant and repetitive。 If you practice zen meditation you'll appreciate him saying the same thing over and over。 If not， just read the last chapter and you'll get the recap。 Marks get us to think more responsibly and sustainably。 His writing is for people who care about how to think and don't just want to be told what to think。 I would read his bestseller "The Most Important Thing" before reading this book。 。。。more
Edgar
，