The Black Swan: The Impact of the Highly Improbable
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- Create Date：2021-11-07 06:53:31
- Update Date：2025-09-06
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- Author：Nassim Nicholas Taleb
- ISBN：1400063515
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Summary
A black swan is a highly improbable event with three principal characteristics: It is unpredictable; it carries a massive impact; and， after the fact， we concoct an explanation that makes it appear less random， and more predictable， than it was。
The astonishing success of Google was a black swan; so was 9/11。 For Nassim Nicholas Taleb， black swans underlie almost everything about our world， from the rise of religions to events in our own personal lives。
Why do we not acknowledge the phenomenon of black swans until after they occur？ Part of the answer， according to Taleb， is that humans are hardwired to learn specifics when they should be focused on generalities。
We concentrate on things we already know and time and time again fail to take into consideration what we don’t know。 We are， therefore， unable to truly estimate opportunities， too vulnerable to the impulse to simplify， narrate， and categorize， and not open enough to rewarding those who can imagine the “impossible。”
For years， Taleb has studied how we fool ourselves into thinking we know more than we actually do。 We restrict our thinking to the irrelevant and inconsequential， while large events continue to surprise us and shape our world。 Now， in this revelatory book， Taleb explains everything we know about what we don’t know。 He offers surprisingly simple tricks for dealing with black swans and benefiting from them。
Elegant， startling， and universal in its applications The Black Swan will change the way you look at the world。 Taleb is a vastly entertaining writer， with wit， irreverence， and unusual stories to tell。 He has a polymathic command of subjects ranging from cognitive science to business to probability theory。
The Black Swan is a landmark book – itself a black swan。
The book also contains a 4-page glossary; 19 pages of notes; and， a 28-page bibliography in addition to an index。
The astonishing success of Google was a black swan; so was 9/11。 For Nassim Nicholas Taleb， black swans underlie almost everything about our world， from the rise of religions to events in our own personal lives。
Why do we not acknowledge the phenomenon of black swans until after they occur？ Part of the answer， according to Taleb， is that humans are hardwired to learn specifics when they should be focused on generalities。
We concentrate on things we already know and time and time again fail to take into consideration what we don’t know。 We are， therefore， unable to truly estimate opportunities， too vulnerable to the impulse to simplify， narrate， and categorize， and not open enough to rewarding those who can imagine the “impossible。”
For years， Taleb has studied how we fool ourselves into thinking we know more than we actually do。 We restrict our thinking to the irrelevant and inconsequential， while large events continue to surprise us and shape our world。 Now， in this revelatory book， Taleb explains everything we know about what we don’t know。 He offers surprisingly simple tricks for dealing with black swans and benefiting from them。
Elegant， startling， and universal in its applications The Black Swan will change the way you look at the world。 Taleb is a vastly entertaining writer， with wit， irreverence， and unusual stories to tell。 He has a polymathic command of subjects ranging from cognitive science to business to probability theory。
The Black Swan is a landmark book – itself a black swan。
The book also contains a 4-page glossary; 19 pages of notes; and， a 28-page bibliography in addition to an index。
Reviews
Akshay Singh
，
Could be shorter。 Some very interesting ideas and take-downs of famous philosophers。 Qualified recommendation。
Heydar Quliyev
，
I have decided to read this book to get some more insights in the statistics。 But at the end I have get so much more about mathematics， economics， sociology and even philosophy。 I would say this is definitely much more than just a book， this is an entire course of introduction into the science about reflection。 I am definitely going to reread it again。
Dan
，
Not as good as Antifragile and he needs a better understanding of the different schools within the field economics， etc。
Avraam Mavridis
，
Its a rich book， full of references and concepts that you may have never heard。 It’s not an easy read， and it’s not something you can read “casually” in your couch。 It requires effort and patience。 You probably will have to read it more than once， keep notes and google the references。 The only thing I found irritating was the occasional anger of author towards other scientists or pseudoscientist， I found it destructive for the greatness of the book。 Someone may find it entertaining， not me。
Frank Theising
，
Obviously I’m reading this one well after the hype has died down （published in 2007， read in 2021）。 My first thoughts when he began arguing that people are bad at predicting and great at hindsight was “well duh。” So the book felt a little tedious for about the first half。 But by the second half when he really began expanding on his argument， I actually learned some pretty interesting things。 Specifically， his sections on narrative fallacy， epistemic arrogance， anchoring， and arbitrary contagion Obviously I’m reading this one well after the hype has died down （published in 2007， read in 2021）。 My first thoughts when he began arguing that people are bad at predicting and great at hindsight was “well duh。” So the book felt a little tedious for about the first half。 But by the second half when he really began expanding on his argument， I actually learned some pretty interesting things。 Specifically， his sections on narrative fallacy， epistemic arrogance， anchoring， and arbitrary contagion were actually really interesting。 Worth the read。 3 stars。What follows are some notes on things I found interesting in the book:A Black Swan event has 3 attributes:•tIt is an outlier， outside the realm of expectations•tIt carries extreme impact•tHuman nature makes us conjure up reasons for its occurrence after the fact to make it appear explainable or predictable The central idea of this book concerns our blindness to randomness， particularly large deviations。 The author describes two worlds -tMediocristan: a world where things work perfectly by known rules and laws （mathematical equations， bell curves， probabilities， etc）-tExtremistan: the real world， that is messy， random， and open to wild fluctuations or outliers （Black Swans） that absolutely wreck the formulas used to make predictions in a perfect world。 The author argues extensively that humans are bad at predicting the future based on known data AND that we have a terrible habit of looking back at history and thinking that the outcome was so obvious。 The author uses the analogy of a turkey。 For years， day after day， a farmer feeds him。 This record of known data lends itself to the conclusion that the farmer is a friend and trusted benefactor。 Nothing in his experience prepares the turkey for day 1000 when his head gets chopped off and he is cooked for Thanksgiving dinner。 Looking back （with new data gathered） it seems obvious what the outcome would be。 What you don’t know is much more consequential than what you do know。 But if you knew something in advance that allowed you to predict an outcome， then things would have turned out differently than what was predicted。 Think of 9/11 example。 If we knew about threat to airlines， we would have implemented security that prevented it from occurring in the first place （thereby removing the thing you were supposed to be able to predict）。 What is surprising is not the magnitude of our forecast errors， but our absence of awareness of it。 The author makes a lot of claims that seem to be generalizations that are not exactly provable （or at least he failed to prove them satisfactorily）:-tAlmost no discovery or technologies of note came from planning but were just Black Swans -tAdam Smith was wrong。 It is not incentives， but the sheer scale of trial and error that enable some to get lucky in free markets。 -tAlmost everything in social life is produced by rare and consequential shocks， while everything studied focuses on the normal。 The human mind suffers from three elements as it comes into contact with history， what he calls triple opacity:-tThe illusion of understanding。 Everyone thinks they know what is going on， but the world is more complicated or random than they realize。-tThe retrospective distortion。 How we can assess matters only after the fact， as if they were in the rearview mirror。 History seems clearer and well organized in history books than it does in empirical reality-tThe overvaluation of factual information and the handicap of authoritative and learned people， particularly when they create categories - when they “Platonify。”People have an insatiable urge to categorize that always produces reduction in true complexity。 This can have explosive consequences since it rules out some uncertainty and drives us to a misunderstanding of the world。 Our desire to categories （for example political Right or Left） are often arbitrary。 Consider clustering - why people who support one position on a specific issue （say abortion） almost always support a different position on an unrelated issue （the death penalty）。 Categorization also leads many to support positions of their group just because that’s what “this category does”。 Ironically， if a political party promotes something （even if contrary to what the group normally does） people often switch positons to remain with said group。Narrative fallacy。 Our vulnerability to over interpretation and our predilection for compact stories over raw truths。 It is our inability to look at a sequence of facts without weaving an explanation into them or forcing an arrow of causation on them。 Information is costly to obtain， store， and retrieve （in the brain）。 Patterns and narratives simplify information to reduce randomness and speed up these processes （but they also blind us to randomness and chaos of the human experience）。 We tend to remember facts easier that fit into a narrative （and forget facts that don’t fit）。 So we pull memories along causative lines， revising them unconsciously。 Re-narrating past events In light of what we think as logical sense。 Narrativity causes us to see past events as more predictable and less random than they really are。 Journalists are equally guilty and often introduce narrative into headlines to make you swallow what they say。 Anecdotes sway more than statistics （for example it only takes one friend to be discuss being robbed in Central Park to convince you it is terribly dangerous （even if the statistics don’t bear this out in reality）。 （Makes me think of COVID now。 Personal stories （about vaccine reactions， break through infections， etc seem to be influencing people way more than statistics on the issue）。 Epistemic arrogance。 The better educated/informed often make worse predictions than those with no background in a subject。 Ideas are sticky: once we produce a theory （based on partial information） we are less likely to change our minds as subsequent information is revealed。 For example， if shown partial information， our mind begins filling in blanks and hypothesizing。 When more data is added later （that would contradict that earlier train of thought， people more often than not can’t let go of the earlier line of reasoning）。 This “anchoring” effects future decision calculus and can lead to wrong results。 We live in Extremistan and it is becoming much more extreme every day。 Factors like cumulative advantage （for example scholars being quoted （even if there are better sources）， lead to more people quoting those same scholars， snowballing into success （even if other ideas had more merit）。 Or consider athletes being marginally better winning huge payoffs。 It is largely luck。 It is contagion that determines the fate of a theory in social science， not its validity。 Often which ideas become popular is a result of totally arbitrary contagion。 If dealing with qualitative inference （yes/no answers） you are in mediocristan and the bell curve is fine。 The impact of the improbable can’t be too large。 But if dealing with aggregates where magnitudes matter （income， book sales， etc） you we’ll get a wrong distribution with Gaussian bell curve because a single outlier can wreck your distribution。 。。。more
Andrew Antes
，
Great ideas， messy presentation， although the section on non-linearity makes me think that was probably intentional。 Either way it leaves you with plenty to think about and consider for future decisions。
Brigitte Moser
，
The book to read this year。
Fhia
，
Buku yang cukup membuka wawasan dalam cara kita memandang prediksi， dugaan， dan resiko。 Suatu peristiwa yang tidak terduga bagi suatu pihal bisa kado sudah diduga （direncanakan？） bahkan tidak berpengaruh bagi pihak lain。 Bacanya mesti diniatin banget biar bisa selesai。 Bukunya tebal dan banyak istilah baru （menurutku）
Saurav Suman
，
The essential takeaway from this book is "sceptical empiricism"。This book really changed my worldview 。The way we are taught in universities， we tend to have an idea of logical progression of science as we never think of all the wrong theories that got discarded（as we are only taught the right theories） so we think everything is good and explainable。This however is far from truth。Just take a look at any current area of research and you will have an idea of what a mess it can be to make real prog The essential takeaway from this book is "sceptical empiricism"。This book really changed my worldview 。The way we are taught in universities， we tend to have an idea of logical progression of science as we never think of all the wrong theories that got discarded（as we are only taught the right theories） so we think everything is good and explainable。This however is far from truth。Just take a look at any current area of research and you will have an idea of what a mess it can be to make real progress in science。Taleb is hinting to us that we should not be too quick in our judgements（naive empiricism） and always be wary that we can be totally wrong（"The turkey case"）。Amongst a lot of interesting things he has to say in the book， this I think was the central message。Must read。 。。。more
Marek Tomaszewski
，
Whole book waiting for the recipe on how to predict the Black Swans or how the author used his concepts to play on the stock market。 Didn't get it。 It is more like a philosophical treatise。The main thesis was very interesting and that was the reason why I started reading。 The whole concept of fractal models being better than Gauss-based models in predicting events seems pretty logical （though I am not a statistician）。 Plenty of other interesting ideas and a lot of references to Daniel Kahneman's Whole book waiting for the recipe on how to predict the Black Swans or how the author used his concepts to play on the stock market。 Didn't get it。 It is more like a philosophical treatise。The main thesis was very interesting and that was the reason why I started reading。 The whole concept of fractal models being better than Gauss-based models in predicting events seems pretty logical （though I am not a statistician）。 Plenty of other interesting ideas and a lot of references to Daniel Kahneman's books。Personally， I don't like the way this book has been written。 I had an impression that 20% of the book was its content and the rest was the show of the author's erudition。 And that was quite painful to read。 。。。more
Himanshu
，
A little more complex than the first book （FBR）， but the more you read it the more you love it。
David Palomino
，
If you are able to get past the arrogant writing style from Nassim Taleb （Who is a super smart dude， but still！）， he brings some interesting ideas to the table。The black swan as a concept and as a shaper of humanity course makes a lot of sense， and certainly we should spend some more time to try to increase our robustness。It is however a topic so vast， that inevitably there is absolutely no way to protect ourselves for the next black swan that will hit us hard （Think COVID for example）。Enjoyable If you are able to get past the arrogant writing style from Nassim Taleb （Who is a super smart dude， but still！）， he brings some interesting ideas to the table。The black swan as a concept and as a shaper of humanity course makes a lot of sense， and certainly we should spend some more time to try to increase our robustness。It is however a topic so vast， that inevitably there is absolutely no way to protect ourselves for the next black swan that will hit us hard （Think COVID for example）。Enjoyable read to think about some topics that we usually don't precisely discuss with our friends during lunch。。。4/5 Stars for me。 A great read but not a MUST READ THIS NOW kind ok book。 。。。more
Helen
，
Video review to follow。
Italo Aleixo De Faria
，
Para José Ortega Y Gasset o ensaio é " ciência sem a prova explícita" e de acordo com o próprio Taleb "ensaio transmite a ideia da tentativa"。 Excelentes definições， um ensaio é uma tentativa de versar sobre um tema sem se apegar as regras e dogmas， simplesmente dando vazão ao pensamento。Aqui， Nassim Nicholas Taleb "ensaia" sobre como nossa noção da realidade é distorcida， focando em dois temas principais: o "Cisne Negro"， evento imprevisível， completamente alheio à probabilidade; e a "Falácia n Para José Ortega Y Gasset o ensaio é " ciência sem a prova explícita" e de acordo com o próprio Taleb "ensaio transmite a ideia da tentativa"。 Excelentes definições， um ensaio é uma tentativa de versar sobre um tema sem se apegar as regras e dogmas， simplesmente dando vazão ao pensamento。Aqui， Nassim Nicholas Taleb "ensaia" sobre como nossa noção da realidade é distorcida， focando em dois temas principais: o "Cisne Negro"， evento imprevisível， completamente alheio à probabilidade; e a "Falácia narrativa"， o processo de narrar eventos passados e induzir conexões a posteriori sobre eles， creditando-lhes causas que antes não eram aparentes。 A ideia é que não podemos prever com exatidão praticamente nada e tudo que achamos saber sobre o passado está errado！Com aplicações práticas na área das finanças e desdobramentos interessantes para a filosofia a "lógica dos cisnes negros" apresenta uma mecânica praticamente niilista， por isso cuidado， reduzir tudo a um estado de "só sei que nada sei"， deixa de ser uma posição cética e acaba tornando por si só uma postura dogmática。Esse é o problema do livro， a idéia é instigante， um dos problemas do funcionamento do cérebro é justamente a falta de ceticismo， todos tendemos a ser crentes de alguma forma， mas como toda a narrativa de Taleb é forjada sob a óptica do mercado， é ingenuidade aplicar a mesma ideia sobre todos os campos do conhecimento。O discurso de ceticismo extremo， mesmo fundamentado por uma base lógica， acaba se tornando uma espécie de manual negacionista， principalmente quando Nassim se apega intencionalmente em fontes pouco citadas， afinal ideia é essa， mostrar que sucesso e reconhecimento são muito mais frutos da sorte do que do trabalho duro， só desconfie de pensamentos heterodoxos demais。。。É um bom livro e traz uma mensagem muito importante， mas que as vezes se perde na visão de mundo particular do próprio autor （um tipo de apostador nato）， falha em algumas alegações e tem um discurso um tanto etéreo！ 。。。more
Vítek Kalábek
，
Takový to když jstě filozof a tak myšlenku， co by normálně vyšla na stránku roztáhnete na délku knihy。 Samo sebou ji pak doplníte pořádnou dávkou chvástání a vytahování， že jste lepší， než všichni ti pitomci s Nobelovejma cenama。Jakože ta myšlenka je fakt super， ale číst knihu - to bylo za trest。
Altynai
，
I stopped at the page 50-60。 The author could not stop talking about how smart he is， and how other people in academia and business just do not understand him。 I was very curious about the book， but could not stand the personality of the author。
Lewis Smyth
，
Started brilliantly but quickly got a bit technical & knit-picky for me in the middle。 Still， a really powerful and intriguing deep-dive on unpredictability。
Ken
，
I read only through Chapter 9 （~50%） of the body of the book。 It struck me as too much like a sermon with more than a bit of personal agenda。 It is extremely rare for me， but I just could not go on to the end。
Deeksha Arya
，
The author is so infuriatingly narcissistic， pompous， and generally a jerk to anyone who does not understand or agree with his theories， that I couldn't see past the writing style to get the content。 Guess I'm just another one of those people he would deride and insult， which seems to be almost everybody。 The author is so infuriatingly narcissistic， pompous， and generally a jerk to anyone who does not understand or agree with his theories， that I couldn't see past the writing style to get the content。 Guess I'm just another one of those people he would deride and insult， which seems to be almost everybody。 。。。more
Eva
，
The Black Swan concept is thought provoking but it is buried in a morass of irrelevant information and presented in a condescending and insufferable manner。 Life is too short too low through this narrative。
Nicole
，
Felt like he kept repeating the same thing over and over。 I didn't get why it was supposedly so ground-breaking of an idea。 Also the advice - "try to avoid a negative black swan" - very inspiring and descriptive。 Felt like he kept repeating the same thing over and over。 I didn't get why it was supposedly so ground-breaking of an idea。 Also the advice - "try to avoid a negative black swan" - very inspiring and descriptive。 。。。more
Jason
，
Trash。 Taleb is a fraud of an intellectual。 I spent the entirety of "The Black Swan" yelling。 Even when he's likely correct in conclusion， which is often enough， his arguments are completely fallacious。 And those conclusions are frequently contradictory。 Trash。 Taleb is a fraud of an intellectual。 I spent the entirety of "The Black Swan" yelling。 Even when he's likely correct in conclusion， which is often enough， his arguments are completely fallacious。 And those conclusions are frequently contradictory。 。。。more
Bae Logsdon
，
Not my cup of tea。 His ideology for 'black swans' holds no merit。 Honestly surprised something like this was published。 Not my cup of tea。 His ideology for 'black swans' holds no merit。 Honestly surprised something like this was published。 。。。more
Agustin
，
Era un libro de cual tenia mucha expectativa de leerlo。 Lamentablemente me tope con una redacción que no me agrado， al punto tal de abandonarlo a en el Capitulo 13。En mi opinión no es una redacción agradable ya que en ciertos pasajes， para no decir en casi todo el libro， intenta ser gracioso。 También siento que constantemente esta respondiéndole a sectores con los que no simpatiza。 Cuenta historias innecesarias que poca relacion tienen con el tema del capitulo。 En fin， senti que perdia el tiempo Era un libro de cual tenia mucha expectativa de leerlo。 Lamentablemente me tope con una redacción que no me agrado， al punto tal de abandonarlo a en el Capitulo 13。En mi opinión no es una redacción agradable ya que en ciertos pasajes， para no decir en casi todo el libro， intenta ser gracioso。 También siento que constantemente esta respondiéndole a sectores con los que no simpatiza。 Cuenta historias innecesarias que poca relacion tienen con el tema del capitulo。 En fin， senti que perdia el tiempo y energias en continuar con su lectura。El tema central del libro es interesante， pero es una lastima que el autor haya optado por este tipo de redaccion en lugar de optar por una redaccion neutra， sin intentar ser comico （que no lo es）， ni responderle a nadie。Para colmo me he comprado tambien el libro "Antifragil" asi que ya puedo imaginarme como sera。 。。。more
Mattia
，
This is probably my first three star review of a book that I plan to read again。 Much of the time， the writing style was humorous， and there were a few stand out sentences that pushed my brain in a direction it has never gone before。However， the author’s attempts to be funny turn into multiple anti-fat comments， and outdated ideas about autistic people。 Also， I will keep this book in mind—when I publish my own—about how to avoid sounding like an egotistical asshole。I plan to read his other books This is probably my first three star review of a book that I plan to read again。 Much of the time， the writing style was humorous， and there were a few stand out sentences that pushed my brain in a direction it has never gone before。However， the author’s attempts to be funny turn into multiple anti-fat comments， and outdated ideas about autistic people。 Also， I will keep this book in mind—when I publish my own—about how to avoid sounding like an egotistical asshole。I plan to read his other books first， and then loop back to this one if I’m still thinking about it。 There are some genuinely interesting ideas， and I do find it worth reading books that open my mind even if they have some downsides。 。。。more
Ewout van Laarhoven
，
I've read Taleb's "Fooled by Randomness" a while ago， and decided to follow up with this one。 I've appreciated Taleb's thesis in both these books （the impact of unknown unknowns and our natural tendency to underestimate this impact， his disapproved attitude to the inappropriate deployment of the Gaussian normal distribution， the role of luck in success and our underappreciation of this role）， and I would like to give 5 stars based on the ideas Taleb presents。 For more appraisal please also see o I've read Taleb's "Fooled by Randomness" a while ago， and decided to follow up with this one。 I've appreciated Taleb's thesis in both these books （the impact of unknown unknowns and our natural tendency to underestimate this impact， his disapproved attitude to the inappropriate deployment of the Gaussian normal distribution， the role of luck in success and our underappreciation of this role）， and I would like to give 5 stars based on the ideas Taleb presents。 For more appraisal please also see other reviews， as others have written much about it。 What's holding me back from giving more stars is the writing itself。 For starters， it takes an unnecessary large amount of text for Taleb to get to the point， which I find tedious。 Also， for someone advising against categorizing people， he sure likes to generalize from the particular。 Taleb points at some （undeniably fair） errors frequently made in planning and prediction， but doesn't offer an alternative and also doesn't recognize the use planning can nevertheless have in real life。 But maybe most annoying to me is the large part of the book dedicated to Yevgenia Krasnova， the story about the author whose book becomes a black swan success。 This story is often used in making his point， also later in this book when he refers back to it。 My issue with this is that the story is made up， and Krasnova doesn't exist。 I'm not reading these kind of books to be inspired by statements which are then backed by a story which is imaginary。 More is not always better: I would have liked this book with some parts simply removed， starting with this Krasnova-chapter 。。。more
Vikas Solanki
，
Refreshing
Khyati Shah
，
Nicholas Nassim Taleb is an intelligent man and the ideas he presents in this book are mind opening as well。 However， I found the book painfully verbose and repetitive in parts 1 and 2。 If you are a bell curve skeptic and have doubts about Modern Portfolio Theory’s soundness， this book will give you a lot of good talking points。
Ajay Venkitaraman
，
This book has been analyzed ad nauseum and I don't think I can add anything of much worth。 That said， not reading this book with any preconceived notions is the best thing anyone can do。 All such notions I had were subverted。 This isn't a self-help book （the kind that has actionable points after every chapter） or a book on how to manage your finances or how to invest （it says that keeping your money under the mattress isn't necessarily a bad thing）。 This is a long series of essays on how humans This book has been analyzed ad nauseum and I don't think I can add anything of much worth。 That said， not reading this book with any preconceived notions is the best thing anyone can do。 All such notions I had were subverted。 This isn't a self-help book （the kind that has actionable points after every chapter） or a book on how to manage your finances or how to invest （it says that keeping your money under the mattress isn't necessarily a bad thing）。 This is a long series of essays on how humans think about very rare events （spoiler alert， we don't think very well about them）。 It also trashes most of the current economics and finance world and says that modern philosophy is a bane to people。 And it also lays the Gaussian to waste without actually attacking Gauss。 This isn't a book for everyone because of the way it's written， but people interested in how psychology reacts to risky ventures should read this book once every five years to open new perspectives about the world around them。 It did predict the COVID19 epidemic in a way， so who knows what other world events can be Platonically fit to the teachings of the book？This is probably the closest I will come to giving a 5-star rating to a book without doing so。 。。。more
Miguel Angel
，