Economics

Trend Following: How to Make a Fortune in Bull, Bear, and Black Swan Markets

Trend Following: How to Make a Fortune in Bull, Bear, and Black Swan Markets

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  • Type：Epub+TxT+PDF+Mobi
  • Create Date：2021-07-13 09:54:19
  • Update Date：2025-09-06
  • Status：finish
  • Author：Michael W. Covel
  • ISBN：1119371872
  • Environment：PC/Android/iPhone/iPad/Kindle
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Summary

Want to take the financial journey to a new investing philosophy that might very well affect the rest of your moneymaking life？ No one can guarantee the yellow brick road， but Michael Covel promises the red pill will leave you wide freaking awake。

Trend Following reveals the truth about a trading strategy that makes money in up， down and surprise markets。 By applying straightforward and repeatable rules， anyone can learn to make money in the markets whether bull， bear， or black swan--by following the trend to the end when it bends。 In this timely reboot of his bestselling classic， Michael Covel dives headfirst into trend following strategy to examine the risks， benefits， people， and systems。 You'll hear from traders who have made millions by following trends， and learn from their successes and mistakes--insights only here。 You'll learn the trend philosophy， and how it has performed in booms， bubbles， panics and crashes。 Using incontrovertible data and overwhelming supporting evidence， with a direct connection to the foundations of behavioral finance， Covel takes you inside the core principles of trend following and shows everyone， from brand new trader to professional， how alpha gets pulled from the market。

Covel's newest edition has been revised and extended， with 7 brand new interviews and research proof from his one of kind network。 This is trend following for today's generation。 If you're looking to go beyond passive index funds and trusting the Fed， this cutting edge classic holds the keys to a weatherproof portfolio。

Meet great trend followers learning their rules and philosophy of the game Examine data to see how trend following excels when the you-know-what hits the fan Understand trend trading， from behavioral economics to rules based decision-making to its lambasting of the efficient markets theory Compare trend trading systems to do it yourself or invest with a trend fund Trend following is not prediction， passive index investing， buy and hope or any form of fundamental analysis。 It utilizes concrete rules， or heuristics， to profit from a behavioral perspective。 Trend Following is clear-cut， straightforward and evidence-based and will secure your financial future in bull， bear and black swan markets。 If you're finally ready to profit in the markets， Trend Following is the definitive treatise for a complex world in constant chaos。

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Reviews

Matias Andrade ，

A very clear and solid introduction to a lens to look at investments that I find very profitable and useful when considering how it can provide returns to your portfolio even during downturns when other "long-only" or "short-vol" strategies perform poorly。 A little too enthusiastic， but it's understandable given how much hate this family of strategies receives from academic "efficient market" charlatans。 Would recommend for people to gain an interest in momentum trading， but preferably read afte A very clear and solid introduction to a lens to look at investments that I find very profitable and useful when considering how it can provide returns to your portfolio even during downturns when other "long-only" or "short-vol" strategies perform poorly。 A little too enthusiastic， but it's understandable given how much hate this family of strategies receives from academic "efficient market" charlatans。 Would recommend for people to gain an interest in momentum trading， but preferably read after Market Wizards， which serves as a more compelling introduction to managed futures and CTA strategies。 。。。more

Greg ，

1。 I read an ebook copy of this from Scribd and never noticed the cover until now。 It's pretty terrible and ridiculous （that had nothing to do with my rating）。2。 This book is interesting， but it's like a long advertisement for Trend Following without all that much 'meat'。 Trend Following is great because it does this。。。。 trend following is great because it was on the short side of this disaster。。。。 Trend Following is like Money Ball， you want to be like Money Ball right？ C'mon drink the Trend Fo 1。 I read an ebook copy of this from Scribd and never noticed the cover until now。 It's pretty terrible and ridiculous （that had nothing to do with my rating）。2。 This book is interesting， but it's like a long advertisement for Trend Following without all that much 'meat'。 Trend Following is great because it does this。。。。 trend following is great because it was on the short side of this disaster。。。。 Trend Following is like Money Ball， you want to be like Money Ball right？ C'mon drink the Trend Following Kool-Aid， it tastes so much better than the Kool-Aid those Fundamental Investors and Value Investors have for sale。 Drink it up！One reviewer said， "Imagine if Michael Jordan publishes a book about his success， and you purchase it and get disappointed why Jordan didn't include his holy grail for his basketball success。 How would you feel if your friend complained that Jordan didn't tell people specifically how he succeeded？" And that is kind of a fair description of some criticisms for any trading book that people whine doesn't have the 'secret' that will make them Warren Buffet rich by next week。 The only problem is this criticism doesn't really hold for this book， this isn't Michael Jordan writing a book on basketball success， it's the journalist at some Chicago Newspaper who covered Jordan back when he was on the Bulls and then started a website about being like Mike， and published books about playing Jordan-esque styles of basketball and how it's superior to say the Pippen and Magic Johnson school of Basketball。 If Richard Dennis， or Ed Seykota， or some of the other legendary Trend Following traders had written a book I'd totally agree with that criticism。 But， on the plus side the book is very persuasive about merits to the Trend Following philosophy but it also reads a bit too much like propaganda and while it highlights traders who at one time may have had a contrarian approach （in relation to the methods they traded on， not on the directional bias of their trades which are anything but contrarian since that would be against the idea of following trends） there is a little too more conformity to an acceptable way of approaching the markets here。 One day I'll start writing more about some of these things。 Tonight I really just wanted to write a review that said the cover is fucking ridiculous。 。。。more

Dan Ripke ，

Good overview of Trend following。 I've read other book by Covel （Turtle Trader）。 I would recommend the book for those looking to become more familiar with the technic of trend identification and trading。 Good overview of Trend following。 I've read other book by Covel （Turtle Trader）。 I would recommend the book for those looking to become more familiar with the technic of trend identification and trading。 。。。more

Hannah Obzunar ，

"You don't need to reinvent the wheel， you just have to follow the right system and execute it"。 This is the strategy that hepls me a lot in my trades。 Little by little I recovered from my previous losses。 This book definitely a must read to everyone who want to learn in trading。 "You don't need to reinvent the wheel， you just have to follow the right system and execute it"。 This is the strategy that hepls me a lot in my trades。 Little by little I recovered from my previous losses。 This book definitely a must read to everyone who want to learn in trading。 。。。more

Tony WANG ，

This is quite a beefy book about trend following。 It reads pretty much like a textbook with quotes to reinforce the concept in nearly every page。 This might arguably be the ultimate bible for all trend followers。 The author presented many case studies and articles about successful self-proclaimed trend followers。 As well as the science behind the idea。 Hence， this book is pretty much one-sided。 All the positive things about trend following you can find it here。 I see the reviews are very much po This is quite a beefy book about trend following。 It reads pretty much like a textbook with quotes to reinforce the concept in nearly every page。 This might arguably be the ultimate bible for all trend followers。 The author presented many case studies and articles about successful self-proclaimed trend followers。 As well as the science behind the idea。 Hence， this book is pretty much one-sided。 All the positive things about trend following you can find it here。 I see the reviews are very much polarised， one either love it or hate it。 To the haters， they reason a lack of trading techniques aka secrets。 I think they are the ever-searching bunch of people to find that ultimate recipe to a successful trader。 The truth is， there is no such thing as a Holy Grail in trading。 They don’t seem to realise that their biggest enemy is within them。 Trading is 80% psychology， 20% techniques。 This book mainly focus on the psychology aspect of trading looking at price actions。 It is not a technical trading methods book that most of these negative bunch are looking for。To me， I find it very useful for a trader to refer back to some of the concepts in this book from time to time。 It is no secret that many of the profitable technical traders follows price action and synchronise or align their mindset to the trend。 There is no good or bad trades。 There is only the right trade。 。。。more

Rvsty Cvnt ，

A disorienting mess。

Zak ，

I've actually read an earlier edition before。 It's mostly a rehash of the same concepts， like how to identify long and short-term trends， position sizing， buy points， etc。 There is A LOT of material on WHY trend following works， with heaps of anecdotal information and chart references to back it up。 This necessarily covers a lot of market psychology underlying why trend following works。 If you are looking for an actionable plan to follow from A-Z， then this book is probably not for you。 I am rem I've actually read an earlier edition before。 It's mostly a rehash of the same concepts， like how to identify long and short-term trends， position sizing， buy points， etc。 There is A LOT of material on WHY trend following works， with heaps of anecdotal information and chart references to back it up。 This necessarily covers a lot of market psychology underlying why trend following works。 If you are looking for an actionable plan to follow from A-Z， then this book is probably not for you。 I am reminded of the oft-quoted adage "The Trend is Your Friend， Until it Ends"。 From experience， I can say that such endings can be quite catastrophic， especially if one were merely riding a trend without paying heed to the fundamentals。 As expected， there is scant discussion about what to do when a profitable trend ends sharply， busting through all your stops and leaving you with a large and massively "underwater" position。 At best， I would recommend investors apply trend following as only one tool in the arsenal and never over an entire portfolio。 [Rating: 3。5*] 。。。more

John R。 Custer PhD ，

No there thereThe title of the book says “how to make a fortune 。 。 。”。 I am still waiting for the how。 I expected， perhaps naively， there to be examples of trading algoritms and comparisons of them。 Not there。

Codey Du ，

For the Haters versus Lovers of this bookLet me start with Haters， their reasoning。。All the haters are correct that this book contains lot of cliches with no actual tutorial on how to build your own system。 A lot of chapters are anecdotes， famous quotes， and even baseball analogies that seem awfully far stretched from trading。 All of the complaints are correct， and I wouldn't argue with any of them。Let me end with why this book is the ultimate book for learning about trend following。。。I can imag For the Haters versus Lovers of this bookLet me start with Haters， their reasoning。。All the haters are correct that this book contains lot of cliches with no actual tutorial on how to build your own system。 A lot of chapters are anecdotes， famous quotes， and even baseball analogies that seem awfully far stretched from trading。 All of the complaints are correct， and I wouldn't argue with any of them。Let me end with why this book is the ultimate book for learning about trend following。。。I can imagine that most people who hate on this book， carry the same attitude in life toward anything they endeavor on。 The haters simply wanted to be told a very specific method so they can start using and quit their mundane jobs and all become millionaires。Any hater who superficially scan for the holy grail will be disappointed， of course they will， because they can't think long enough about why this book was written。Imagine if Michael Jordan publishes a book about his success， and you purchase it and get disappointed why Jordan didn't include his holy grail for his basketball success。 How would you feel if your friend complained that Jordan didn't tell people specifically how he succeeded？ The ultimate truth is， trading is pretty much like a sport， can't be taught but it can be learned， through numerous trial-and-error， self doubting and endless nights of questioning。Richard Dennis once said， he could publish all his rules in news paper and no one would use it。Alexander Elder and Tom Basso discovered that entry really didn't matter， as long as exits are well taken care of。William Eckhardt said that emotional intelligence is probably the determining factor in trading success。Anyone can starting using the rules published in Covel's complete turtle book， the 4 week high entry with 2x ATR price stop coupled with perhaps 20day moving average time stop。 But to which extent are you able to use that system perfectly depending primarily on your ability to stick to the system without doubting。Of course time-to-time you will modify the system due to new experience gained。But the specific setup， there is no holy grail。Covel's book is good in inspiring people who already have a deep understanding of trend following， however it does not serve to teach you how to trend follow。 Much like no basketball player will teach you specifically how to cross and shake an opponent， because it's not possible to teach。 Any book promising to teach you how to pick up chicks at a bar are usually charlatan who's making false promises。No skills whatsoever in any arena in life can be taught。 The best hackers are self taught， the best photoshop users are self taught， the best rappers are self taught。 The idea that someone can transfer his/her knowledge to you through a speech/book is just nonsense。 Experience cannot be replaced by simply reading a book， or listening to audiobook on Youtube。My reasons why I love this book:Because it shows that trend following works， and it makes sense to me。 Trend following system hibernates during ranging period that whipsaw， forcing you to trade smaller and smaller using the 1%/2% equity risk rule， and makes you trade larger during trending period。 The purchasing power is well protected/preserved during unfavorable market。 If this doesn't make sense to you then I don't know what makes sense。Trend following does not discriminate against any asset classes， or previous highs/lows。 Any trending signal will be picked up and force the trader to ride until it dies down。 Any news， fundamental figures， comments from analyst are ignored because trend followers expect that future cannot be predicted but trend won't stop until it "stops"。 This makes total sense to me and I'm happy to put my money on the line because it sounds logical。Conclusion:Don't pick up this book if you're hoping to be taught and transformed into a trend following trader and start making millions， you won't， just like any book that teach you how to pick up chicks and dating won't transform you into an alpha male with super jacked muscle。Do read this book if you want an extensive background info on why trend following works， and how the successful traders look at the markets。You have to ultimately put in the work to gain that experience to succeed as a trader， which isn't easy， and 99% of us retail traders won't make it there。 But any arena in life is like that。 However it is worth a try isn't it？ You have your dreams waiting for you right？ 。。。more

Javier Villar ，

At times it seems that the author has only "heard of it"， like he hasn't integrated what he's saying。 Indoctrinated by truth， I'd say。 But， anyway， is still truth and there are many great traders as references。 At times it seems that the author has only "heard of it"， like he hasn't integrated what he's saying。 Indoctrinated by truth， I'd say。 But， anyway， is still truth and there are many great traders as references。 。。。more

Esteban Invernizzi ，

That's a very long way to say "there's evidence that trend following is the best trading strategy， and make sure you use good money management"。 Not very practical， a lot of opinion， quotes and interviews。 If you're looking to learn how trend following operates or how to build a trading system， this book is not what you're after。 That's a very long way to say "there's evidence that trend following is the best trading strategy， and make sure you use good money management"。 Not very practical， a lot of opinion， quotes and interviews。 If you're looking to learn how trend following operates or how to build a trading system， this book is not what you're after。 。。。more

Ryan ，

I was very disappointed by this book。 This book should be called “The Zen of Trend Following: How to Develop The Mindset of a Trading Legend” （or some such）。 The “How To。。。” in the title is misleading。 There is little to no “how to” in this book。 Properly titled， and properly setting my expectations as to its contents， this book could have been a four-star book for me。It’s filled with rhetoric about the glories of trend following （which I don’t disagree with）。 It has some interviews with success I was very disappointed by this book。 This book should be called “The Zen of Trend Following: How to Develop The Mindset of a Trading Legend” （or some such）。 The “How To。。。” in the title is misleading。 There is little to no “how to” in this book。 Properly titled， and properly setting my expectations as to its contents， this book could have been a four-star book for me。It’s filled with rhetoric about the glories of trend following （which I don’t disagree with）。 It has some interviews with successful traders （which is cool）， but I didn’t appreciate a 400 page introduction to actual trend following strategies。 I was ecstatic to see an equation on page 408！ Actually， I enjoyed pages 405 to the end， which is why the book gets two stars instead of one。I will likely come back to some of these interviews in the book， which again， could offer valuable insights into the mindset of a trader。 But， if you’re looking for a “how to” book， look elsewhere。 。。。more

Chris Esposo ，

Review for Audible format:In the almost 35 hours a listener may spend finishing this book， they will probably never get a clear understanding of trend following， not even a simple definition。 The best one can piece together is that it's the strategy of following a time series trend of a particular security or commodity as it trends up， and contract to short the moment it trends down。How to define the time-delta isn't specified。 A lot of the book talks about trend following as if the reader is a Review for Audible format:In the almost 35 hours a listener may spend finishing this book， they will probably never get a clear understanding of trend following， not even a simple definition。 The best one can piece together is that it's the strategy of following a time series trend of a particular security or commodity as it trends up， and contract to short the moment it trends down。How to define the time-delta isn't specified。 A lot of the book talks about trend following as if the reader is a lifelong practitioner。 Usually one should be cautious with trading books， not only are they a dime a dozen， but most seem to garbage。 However， the author was able to demonstrate some bona fides by interviewing several noted individuals on his show including Daniel Kahneman， Harry Markowitz， and Robert Aumann in academic economics and a few well-noted traders like Ed Seykota， so I'd figure the book must be worth something。The core book itself makes up only 12/34 hours。 Another 12 hours or so are appendix where the author cites entire interviews （and a few practitioner papers on trading systems） he conducted himself， and the rest （10 hours or so） are a mix of the actual interviews， taken directly from his podcast， cited in his。appendices。 In a few instances， the interviews in this section are actually read word-for-word in his appendix section， which itself is mentioned/quoted heavily in the book proper， so you could get triple redundancy。 So basically a lot of fluff， towards the last 4 or 6 hours of the entire production is mostly interviews about trading and life， which are as they sound。。。 To be fair， some of it was interesting， like how not to be obsessive with looking at movement on your terminal/dashboard （which probably causes over-trading）， and could be applied other occupations with respect to creating a good work-life balance。There are 2 or 3 segments where the book discusses trading on securities/commodities that could be modelled generatively with a skew or large kurtosis distribution that were interesting。 A lot of that material reduces to understanding potential asymmetries on the up or down-side of a trade， using half-variance instead of variance as proxy for risk （also why variance is not risk， but that's a different related segment） etc。 Most of the segments， however， are nowhere near as useful。 Mostly it's just the interviewer and interviewee talking about how great trend following is as a strategy。 It really reads like an infomercial。 I probably would not ever listen to this again。 。。。more

Will ，

the book is great。 Except you won't learn much from it because if you want to know more， you need to purchase his $3000 course （100% refund guarantee after 1。5 years trial）。 Wow sounds a great deal isn't it？ Of course， you know what will happen after 1。5 years trial。 You will find yourself $3000 poorer and no refund unfortunately。 the book is great。 Except you won't learn much from it because if you want to know more， you need to purchase his $3000 course （100% refund guarantee after 1。5 years trial）。 Wow sounds a great deal isn't it？ Of course， you know what will happen after 1。5 years trial。 You will find yourself $3000 poorer and no refund unfortunately。 。。。more

Gustavo Alberto Martins Ribeiro da Cunha ，

Sound book for trend followersIt is a profound and sound book for people who want to learn what really is trend following。 And I am not talking only about systems， but much more important: philosophy， risk management， money management， psicology。。。 In other words the journey。 Besides that gives statistical hard data trend following performance that proves its effectiveness。

Matthew B。 ，

It was nice that he provided the mindset one needs to be a trend follower， but he could have done it it 10 pages instead of 400+。 My opinion it was a waste of time reading。 Lots of talk and no important details。 By reading this book you will not have enough information to even think about trend following。 His title is very misleading。

Scott ，

The guru of how to invest。 He'll rock your world。 The guru of how to invest。 He'll rock your world。 。。。more

その人 ，

Too qualitative & really poorly organizedIt's ironic that a book that seeks to promote system based quantitative trading chooses to do so with inane anecdotes and analogies。 Almost reads like a sell-side report that the author claims to dislike - complete with inappropriately placed Warren Buffett quotes and pointless repetition of truisms。 Too qualitative & really poorly organizedIt's ironic that a book that seeks to promote system based quantitative trading chooses to do so with inane anecdotes and analogies。 Almost reads like a sell-side report that the author claims to dislike - complete with inappropriately placed Warren Buffett quotes and pointless repetition of truisms。 。。。more

Jerry Campbell ，

This book was very generic。 Most of this information can be found on the internet。

Valentin ，

Highly overrated book， presenting well known facts from different articles published in different magazines during the years。

Fpatrick ，

Waste of time。 Should have bailed before slogging to the end。 Title implies more how-to than was delivered， which was pretty much none。 Just examples of past performance of a collection of traders。

Masood Akhtar ，

A convincing read on trend following in stock market。 Although it's a good theory but yet to know whether equally good in practice。 A convincing read on trend following in stock market。 Although it's a good theory but yet to know whether equally good in practice。 。。。more

Free Book ，

Not Bad; 3。5 *Download free ebook for your Kindle， iBooks: http://festyy。com/wlqYrhTải về: http://123link。pw/TsBQg4 Not Bad; 3。5 *Download free ebook for your Kindle， iBooks: http://festyy。com/wlqYrhTải về: http://123link。pw/TsBQg4 。。。more

Brian Moyer ，

It's a little like Napolean Hill's Think and Grow Rich。 Tons of quotes and interviews， very motivating， with little actionable advice。 Covel thoroughly makes the case for trend-following as an investment strategy but doesn't outline how one would actually do it other than the overarching theory。 Some of the best information came in the audiobook interviews with successful fund managers。 Also， if you've read his book on the turtle traders there's a fair amount of overlap although I'd say it was s It's a little like Napolean Hill's Think and Grow Rich。 Tons of quotes and interviews， very motivating， with little actionable advice。 Covel thoroughly makes the case for trend-following as an investment strategy but doesn't outline how one would actually do it other than the overarching theory。 Some of the best information came in the audiobook interviews with successful fund managers。 Also， if you've read his book on the turtle traders there's a fair amount of overlap although I'd say it was still worth it to read both if this is something that really interests you。 。。。more

Gurmukh Sandhu ，

Trend is your Friend

Sundaram Shanmugam ，

I should have read this book long ago。I began trading commodities eight years ago。 It took me around five years to device a strategy to trade with trend following。 I am a staunch follower of trend following。 This book helped me in polishing up my existing trading plan。

rudywarr ，

my favorite trading book by now。。。

Cheryl ，

I like the ideas behind the trend following trading。 After reading this book and the author's other book I'm left wondering which stocks should I select to start following the trends？ I emailed the author asking this question and at first， he implied that I didn't read the book。 Then he said I could sign up for his program which costs thousands of dollars。 I thought the point of this book and the turtle experiment was that anyone could be trained to do trend trading。 Apparently， the author wants I like the ideas behind the trend following trading。 After reading this book and the author's other book I'm left wondering which stocks should I select to start following the trends？ I emailed the author asking this question and at first， he implied that I didn't read the book。 Then he said I could sign up for his program which costs thousands of dollars。 I thought the point of this book and the turtle experiment was that anyone could be trained to do trend trading。 Apparently， the author wants you to shell out thousands of dollars to do so which was disappointing to hear。 。。。more

Jodie ，

A great deal of information for the hardcore traderThis book is packed with interviews and wisdom from some of the top traders of the last 30 years。 Their wisdom and commitment to trend following system is documented and well narrated by Covel。 Additionally， tons of research and statistical modeling of results are also included to show trend following as a very viable and robust trading system。 Unfortunately there are very few of the systems described in this book。 Had examples and narrative ste A great deal of information for the hardcore traderThis book is packed with interviews and wisdom from some of the top traders of the last 30 years。 Their wisdom and commitment to trend following system is documented and well narrated by Covel。 Additionally， tons of research and statistical modeling of results are also included to show trend following as a very viable and robust trading system。 Unfortunately there are very few of the systems described in this book。 Had examples and narrative step by step view of their process been included， it would have gotten 5 stars。 。。。more

Carl ，

Mr。 Covel wrote some of this text; a large amount of the content is republished papers of other authors。 Probably I do not fit the target demographic in that I'm not a trend following nor trading geek。 I thought I'd learn about the topic from this book， but found it to be a more wandering path to delivering information than I was prepared for。 Consequently， it felt tedious。 I was simply curious about the topic and didn't have any prior knowledge -- for me， this was not an efficient starting poin Mr。 Covel wrote some of this text; a large amount of the content is republished papers of other authors。 Probably I do not fit the target demographic in that I'm not a trend following nor trading geek。 I thought I'd learn about the topic from this book， but found it to be a more wandering path to delivering information than I was prepared for。 Consequently， it felt tedious。 I was simply curious about the topic and didn't have any prior knowledge -- for me， this was not an efficient starting point。 Presumably aficionados of trend following will find the book delightful。 。。。more

Reference

google book https://www.google.com/search?tbm=bks&q=Trend Following: How to Make a Fortune in Bull, Bear, and Black Swan Markets

hathitrust digital library https://babel.hathitrust.org/cgi/ls?q1=Trend Following: How to Make a Fortune in Bull, Bear, and Black Swan Markets&field1=ocr&a=srchls&ft=ft&lmt=ft

The British Library https://bll01.primo.exlibrisgroup.com/discovery/search?query=any,contains,Trend Following: How to Make a Fortune in Bull, Bear, and Black Swan Markets&tab=LibraryCatalog&search_scope=Not_BL_Suppress&vid=44BL_INST:BLL01&lang=en&offset=0