The Black Swan: The Impact of the Highly Improbable
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- Create Date：2021-05-14 11:54:34
- Update Date：2025-09-06
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- Author：Nassim Nicholas Taleb
- ISBN：081297381X
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Summary
A black swan is an event， positive or negative， that is deemed improbable yet causes massive consequences。 In this groundbreaking and prophetic book， Taleb shows in a playful way that Black Swan events explain almost everything about our world， and yet we—especially the experts—are blind to them。 In this second edition， Taleb has added a new essay， On Robustness and Fragility， which offers tools to navigate and exploit a Black Swan world。
*2nd Edition， With a new essay: "On Robustness and Fragility"
Reviews
Nick Davies
，
Now。 This regrettably suffered from the same issues as the other book by Taleb that I read a few years back， but more so。There is， at the heart of it， some sense to what the author is trying to say。 We as humans are prone to all number of cognitive biases and are hence illogical in the sense that rare occurrences are often underestimated and not seen for what they are。 Many of these very rare incidences （the 'Black Swan' events in the title） can be very significant and unexpected。 I don't argue Now。 This regrettably suffered from the same issues as the other book by Taleb that I read a few years back， but more so。There is， at the heart of it， some sense to what the author is trying to say。 We as humans are prone to all number of cognitive biases and are hence illogical in the sense that rare occurrences are often underestimated and not seen for what they are。 Many of these very rare incidences （the 'Black Swan' events in the title） can be very significant and unexpected。 I don't argue with the basic premise from which this idea developed。But FFS。 This is very poorly written if Taleb aims to convince me of his arguments。 Firstly even before the substance can be critiqued， the style is incredibly irritating。 The author comes across arrogant an scatty and his propensity to shoot off on tangents he finds interesting， or indulge in inaccurate and ridiculous analogies I found very difficult indeed。 The edition I read was also heavily footnoted from the original work， which to me just made me think the author was a） previously often incorrect， requiring clarification/correction， or b） full of even more irrelevant crap he wanted to bung in。The factual content， though some of what he was saying was correct and true， I just found failed to convince。 The work appears to be possible to summarise as "Reject assumptions because rarely there are unexpected outlier events which are very different and very significant！" （but expanded over 400+ pages with indulgent anecdotes and sidetracking）。 I would argue that *as* the assumptions that come from are correct 99+% of the time， and outliers are rare and difficult to predict， it makes perfect sense to draw assumptions from what has happened before in the majority of cases。 Yes， a small number of areas （the financial market） are complex， subject to variables yet discovered， and hence very very difficult to predict - but this does not mean the 'idea' of relying on the probable/predictable is somehow disproved by the existence of the rare/improbable， as Taleb seems to argue at length。 I felt that this was a clever man with an interesting idea trying to pull the wool over the eyes of readers who are more easily convinced by his style of argument。 An argument which in the main does not stand up to critical thinking。 。。。more
Jennifer Gyuricska
，
It wasn't what I expected and I definitely did not understand everything I read。 Very academic but interesting， all the same It wasn't what I expected and I definitely did not understand everything I read。 Very academic but interesting， all the same 。。。more
Zak
，
Nassim is either a genius or a sophist， and probably both。 I also grew to love to hate him， but I could never grow to love anything as much as NNT loves himself。 That being said， I think it's easy to dismiss this as being too binary and brash but actually I think that he's definitely on to something and it probably takes a certain level of brashness to go against long standing tradition。 All in all I would recommend as it has made me look at things differently， and although it doesn't actually f Nassim is either a genius or a sophist， and probably both。 I also grew to love to hate him， but I could never grow to love anything as much as NNT loves himself。 That being said， I think it's easy to dismiss this as being too binary and brash but actually I think that he's definitely on to something and it probably takes a certain level of brashness to go against long standing tradition。 All in all I would recommend as it has made me look at things differently， and although it doesn't actually focus on the interesting problem of induction （i。e。 the logical problem） it definitely opened my eyes to the limits of knowledge in predication。 。。。more
Mark
，
This was a potentially interesting topic tainted by a （as mentioned in other reviews） pompous， overconfident author who drones on about himself and other random bullshit。 Just very pretentiously written in ways that are maddening。 The concept of this book is simple: humans are poor at being able to make sense of cause and effect （and thus make accurate predictions） on a large scale。 That's it。 We don't need the random diatribes about made up fictional characters by an obviously failed fiction wr This was a potentially interesting topic tainted by a （as mentioned in other reviews） pompous， overconfident author who drones on about himself and other random bullshit。 Just very pretentiously written in ways that are maddening。 The concept of this book is simple: humans are poor at being able to make sense of cause and effect （and thus make accurate predictions） on a large scale。 That's it。 We don't need the random diatribes about made up fictional characters by an obviously failed fiction writer or random edgelord jokes about French people。 。。。more
Matteo Villotta
，
Definitely an interesting book。 N。N。 Thaleb gives an perspective in his definition of what “empirical” is， going from economics to history。 The only negative point of this book is that sometimes is “a little bit too much”。 Too many digressions and details which do not really add something。 Definitely recommended。
Mika Neuhaus
，
Horribly written， highly unfocused， annoying condescendance and oversimplification。 It speaks to NNTs ability as a thinker that I do not regret having read all of the （original） book。
Francesco
，
Vote: 3，00Class: P-A3 （FP）I'm not much into this kind of books and with this one it wasn't very different。It's a book about Black Swan: the very improbable， unforeseeable and really unexpected sort。And yes， I know， many things are in Extremistan and most prevision are only wishful thinking but if you really work on what you can or can't do， and you know which is which it's not really necessary to read hundreds of pages of this。Too long and not really life changing。 Vote: 3，00Class: P-A3 （FP）I'm not much into this kind of books and with this one it wasn't very different。It's a book about Black Swan: the very improbable， unforeseeable and really unexpected sort。And yes， I know， many things are in Extremistan and most prevision are only wishful thinking but if you really work on what you can or can't do， and you know which is which it's not really necessary to read hundreds of pages of this。Too long and not really life changing。 。。。more
Jose
，
Am I living in Extremistan or Mediocristan ？
Elis
，
Bell curves and philosofical problems of induction
Rami Saleh
，
Very interesting book that introduces you to new thinking habits
Santeri
，
Nassim Taleb seems like a charlatan， which I think must be his favorite word。 Boring， repetitive and I can only summarize the book as follows: ”Shit happens”。 The question is， how can he have achieved almost a cult-like status？ It must be some sort of deception of the masses （e。g。 let’s call it Nassim’s charlatanism） that is going on here。 I will give him another try and read his ”Skin in the Game”， but thanks to this my expectations are at rock-bottom。 Maybe he will tell again some more of his Nassim Taleb seems like a charlatan， which I think must be his favorite word。 Boring， repetitive and I can only summarize the book as follows: ”Shit happens”。 The question is， how can he have achieved almost a cult-like status？ It must be some sort of deception of the masses （e。g。 let’s call it Nassim’s charlatanism） that is going on here。 I will give him another try and read his ”Skin in the Game”， but thanks to this my expectations are at rock-bottom。 Maybe he will tell again some more of his taxi ride conversations or how he visited a yet another company and realized something banal。 Thank god I downloaded the book for free and didn’t actually contribute to charlatan’s well-being。 。。。more
Mesti Baca
，
Pertama， saya tidak tahu kenapa buku ini banyak dikategorikan sebagai buku bisnis。 Mungkin saja karena buku ini membuat kita bisa mempertimbangkan keputusan kita dengan lebih baik lagi， I don't know。。。Sepertinya buku ini sedikit merupakan pengembangan dari bukunya Kahneman， tetapi dilengkapi dengan berbagai macam tips dan trik untuk bisa merancang keputusan dengan baik。Entahlah， kalian bisa lihat rangkumannya di https://mestisukses。com/book/black-sw。。。 sih Pertama， saya tidak tahu kenapa buku ini banyak dikategorikan sebagai buku bisnis。 Mungkin saja karena buku ini membuat kita bisa mempertimbangkan keputusan kita dengan lebih baik lagi， I don't know。。。Sepertinya buku ini sedikit merupakan pengembangan dari bukunya Kahneman， tetapi dilengkapi dengan berbagai macam tips dan trik untuk bisa merancang keputusan dengan baik。Entahlah， kalian bisa lihat rangkumannya di https://mestisukses。com/book/black-sw。。。 sih 。。。more
Ponceau
，
Эта книга， как ни одна другая из прочитанных мной， вызвала у меня море смешанных чувств。 Иногда я обожала эту книгу， иногда у меня горело от приукрасов или встречавшейся местами дезинформации。 Некоторые идеи вызывали восторг и согласие， другие - отторжение。 Манера повествования автора тоже показалась противоречивой: некоторые шутки были забавными， но иногда он явно перегибал палку с издевками над экономистами и представителями других профессий， кто， по мнению Н。Н。Т。， мыслит шаблонно и не достоин Эта книга， как ни одна другая из прочитанных мной， вызвала у меня море смешанных чувств。 Иногда я обожала эту книгу， иногда у меня горело от приукрасов или встречавшейся местами дезинформации。 Некоторые идеи вызывали восторг и согласие， другие - отторжение。 Манера повествования автора тоже показалась противоречивой: некоторые шутки были забавными， но иногда он явно перегибал палку с издевками над экономистами и представителями других профессий， кто， по мнению Н。Н。Т。， мыслит шаблонно и не достоин называться экспертом или вообще "человеком разумным"。 Поэтому в попытке определиться между 3 и 5 звездами поставлю 4 。。。more
Andrea F J De Pace
，
Very politically incorrect， full of cliches and scientifically poorly supported。
Ellen Lee
，
I'm still reeling; still unsure about what 50% of the book means， especially in the parts that go deep into finance， "scalability"， and "Gaussian bell-curves"， but this is nevertheless a deeply enjoyable book-length argument。 It guided me through re-thinking conventional conceptions of probability and what we consider "normal"/"ordinary"/"everyday"， and gave compelling advice for embracing doubt and uncertainty in an aggressively competitive and shallow world， but also practical advice on the ap I'm still reeling; still unsure about what 50% of the book means， especially in the parts that go deep into finance， "scalability"， and "Gaussian bell-curves"， but this is nevertheless a deeply enjoyable book-length argument。 It guided me through re-thinking conventional conceptions of probability and what we consider "normal"/"ordinary"/"everyday"， and gave compelling advice for embracing doubt and uncertainty in an aggressively competitive and shallow world， but also practical advice on the appropriate times to take meaningful risks。 If it was written by a less articulate man， it might have all flown right over my head。 The five stars is for his wonderful writing style， like listening to an erudite and enthusiastic friend - incredibly intelligent without any condescension 。。。more
Anna Astafyeva
，
Taleb makes an attempt to sound academically but I see more of emotional argumentation in his book。 The entire point of the book ranges from "let's have critical thinking" to "any forecasting doesn't make sense"。 The former seems to be obvious after getting at least somehow good modern education， the latter is close to absurd: economic and statistic modeling is best what we have， so we still can get some use from forecasts， but （now the former point again） treat them critically。 I really liked o Taleb makes an attempt to sound academically but I see more of emotional argumentation in his book。 The entire point of the book ranges from "let's have critical thinking" to "any forecasting doesn't make sense"。 The former seems to be obvious after getting at least somehow good modern education， the latter is close to absurd: economic and statistic modeling is best what we have， so we still can get some use from forecasts， but （now the former point again） treat them critically。 I really liked one of the initial chapter with the authors personal history， that was just interesting to read。 。。。more
Nick Caputo
，
The more mathy the part of the book the better - worth skipping the first section and heading into the later parts。 Does have some great ideas towards the end。Read with Sean。
Janelle
，
I have mixed feelings about Taleb。 He has interesting and unique ideas， and his writing can be quite funny， but he also goes on long and random tangents and can be quite mean spirited and full of himself。
Alfonso Oramas
，
Gauss o Mandelbrot。 Incertidumbre y riesgo。 Desconocidos desconocidos y cisne gris Mandelbrotiano。 La ausencia de pruebas vs la prueba de la ausencia。
Shf
，
NNT is a genius and a great visionary。 While reading the book was a great experience and improved my understanding of the mediocristan and extremistan， it is nearly impossible to fairly grasp all the content after the first read。 I expected the structure and form of the book to be more organized to help the reader。 NNT uses repetitions probably as a way to emphasize the points， but I had a hard time separating repetitions from the new materials particularly in the second section of the book。
Blanca bernal
，
I do not understand the whole idea， I must to tell that is not easy at the end but it has a lot of logical definitions that makes you match with the content。 Not an easy book， but I will continue with the second part 😊
Nate Lorenzen
，
Gaussian curves ruin the world and mandelbrotian statistics are here to rescue us all。 Nothing I say in this review will be different from others。 It's a great read and expertly written。 The extra chapter at the end isn't really worth the time IMO and is why I decreased this from a 5 star review。 Couple of topics to write down for my records later。- Ludic Fallacy: don't use casino games as a model of reality- Fractal statistics and how it relates to power laws- Gaussian/bell curve and how it acc Gaussian curves ruin the world and mandelbrotian statistics are here to rescue us all。 Nothing I say in this review will be different from others。 It's a great read and expertly written。 The extra chapter at the end isn't really worth the time IMO and is why I decreased this from a 5 star review。 Couple of topics to write down for my records later。- Ludic Fallacy: don't use casino games as a model of reality- Fractal statistics and how it relates to power laws- Gaussian/bell curve and how it accelerates the odds in the tails with very minor changes- The turkey trap- The ice cube metaphor: construct the shape of the icecube from the puddle of water- Barbell strategy 。。。more
XdExtended
，
The book came to me in the right time， therefore it was not boring to me and I was enjoying it。 NNT ideas are stunning， but his writing approach is chaotic。
Jiwesh Kushal
，
No， not the book on which they made a movie。 This is an angry rant against a financial and educational system that does not learn just how vulnerable it is to catastrophes， even though there is evidence from the past。 Taleb emphasises how we are good at explaining rather than forecasting， and that our theories are not at all resistant to （negative） Black Swans， unpredictable events of high impact。There are multiple digressions in each chapter， to the point that it's difficult to trace where a pa No， not the book on which they made a movie。 This is an angry rant against a financial and educational system that does not learn just how vulnerable it is to catastrophes， even though there is evidence from the past。 Taleb emphasises how we are good at explaining rather than forecasting， and that our theories are not at all resistant to （negative） Black Swans， unpredictable events of high impact。There are multiple digressions in each chapter， to the point that it's difficult to trace where a particular subsection is present in the book。 Taleb really does hates linearity。 He takes no-restraint digs at economists， bankers， statisticians， economists， social scientists and bankers in particular。 In general， anyone who knows what a Gaussian curve is stupid because （a） he/she knows what a Gaussian curve is and （b） he/she actually does not know what a Gaussian curve really is。 It should come as no surprise that the author isn't super modest。 He says that his theories vastly outperform Gödel's Incompleteness Theorem on the utility front。 This was probably not a typo， since it occurs twice in the book。 He is also the only true empirical skepticist alive。 Also， statements like "I have never met a （insert profession; economist is a popular choice in the book） who understands （insert right way of thinking）" are scattered throughout the book。 If you aren't greatly bothered by the presentation of the material， and sit back and give it your attention， you'll learn quite a few things。 It kindled in me an interest to explore more of chaotic systems （ones where a small change in the input parameter can lead to a disproportionately large change in the output） and scalable systems （ones in which the probability dies uniformly as we move away from the mean）。 I'll have to turn to textbooks written by people Taleb hates for that。 The book has a lot of don'ts and not many dos。 It is not a how-to guide。 The author， rightly， argues that， from past data， something not being true is the only thing we can be absolutely certain about。 I guess this fuels quite a few reviews saying there were no final takeaways from the book。 。。。more
Danielle Cassalha
，
This is a very interesting book that brings important refletions about decision making and business， but also about day to day life。 Nassim gives a new perspective on how we deal with uncertainties and why， while proposing a new perspective to history and future。Some of the chapters can be quite technical and can be skiped if you are not into it （as recommended by Nassim）。 Part one presents lot’s of new concepts and can be a bit dry。 But everything will make sense on part two。
Anastasia
，
One of my favorite books。 Ever。
Talent
，
tl;dr - 5 stars for the ideas， 3 stars for the writing， 4 stars overallRegarding the content， looking past the snide， sneer， and snark， Taleb is wonderful。 Briefly， he points out the errors in understanding risk and probabilities that pervade modern economics， financials， the way we interact with nature， and more。 We treat complex systems as if they were simple and assume that things fit a Gaussian distribution when they only *appear* to。 And this is worse than wrong and falls into iatrogenic ha tl;dr - 5 stars for the ideas， 3 stars for the writing， 4 stars overallRegarding the content， looking past the snide， sneer， and snark， Taleb is wonderful。 Briefly， he points out the errors in understanding risk and probabilities that pervade modern economics， financials， the way we interact with nature， and more。 We treat complex systems as if they were simple and assume that things fit a Gaussian distribution when they only *appear* to。 And this is worse than wrong and falls into iatrogenic harm。 The equivalent of trying a medicine because it theoretically acts on the right pathway--which in truth is nothing more than a shot in the dark。 The use of the word iatrogenic in this sense is spot-on。 In medical terms， you can isolate metabolic， signaling， physiologic pathways but not when treating in the body。 But we have learned that our interventions don't always do what we think it will do。 Which is why successful modern medicine relies on the randomized trial， and often why what we think should work does not。 See also how pharmaceuticals have been repurposed because of something we didn't know about earlier。 Ironically， the balance of humors is clearly wrong， but the idea of balancing a complex system （such as our bodies） may be more valid than thinking purely mechanistically/physiologically as well。The black swan is an illustration of our epistemological blindness， preference for confirmation （vs fear of falsification）， illusion that although all models are wrong， something is better than nothing， and dangerous misapplication of statistics in a complex system。 The "black swan" illustration is an old saying that basically means a unicorn。 There is no such thing as a black swan。 All swans are white and all evidence points to such since ancient times。 Until black swans were discovered in Australia。First， epistemological blindness refers to how we ignore what we don't know and prefer confirmation to falsification。 This is particularly insidious and pervasive when combined with the wrong incentives in fields as diverse as banking， economics， academia， medicine （in some regards）， and particularly the social "sciences" such as pop psychology。 For instance， there are no incentives for negative experimental results in many scientific fields。 Or no negative incentives for bankers take *less* risk。This coincides with the rise of scientism， the now widespread "I believe science" and putting scientists on a pedestal without understanding the unavoidable flaws。 Most people don't know it is that they believe and don't see the limits of what it is that they believe。 Perhaps the separate magisterium idea is most appropriate。 Scientific theories are true， until it isn't， and trying to find that spot in a complex system is what science is actually about。 Many science people need more humility in recognizing what we don't know。 Second， Taleb talks about risk blindness and how that human perception of risk and probability is often very wrong。 This is based a lot on Daniel Kahneman's work， but Taleb picks up on another point about some of the wisdom of older people。 Their advice is often to avoid risks with catastrophic consequences。 Sometimes we misjudge risks （merely in terms of raw probabilities）， but we also judge magnitude of effects and perhaps might not be too wrong after all。Third is this point about ignoring the potential magnitude of risks in a complex system。 A black swan might be a very unlikely event with which we has never occurred before （a 50% loss in the markets） or something that happens all the time （some home loans defaulting）， but because it occurs in a complex system， the effects can be devastating in ways we cannot predict。 Like one event triggering a physiologic spiral towards death （difficult of assigning one "cause of death" in forensic pathology） or a line of dominoes falling。Taleb makes a distinction between a robust （anti-fragile） system and a fragile system。 He wrote all this before the recent coronavirus pandemic， which is extremely impressive， but the pandemic perfectly vindicates him。 Our supply chains ARE fragile。 Our "just-in-time" and globalized sourcing means that there is no slack in the system。 Even with the Defense Production Act the system is not that robust。 As I write this， there is a semiconductor shortage in the industry， the ports are backlogged， and the Feds are still printing money， among all the other things going on。 Taleb also makes an interesting point that debt is a way of creating a fragile system。 I had always thought of leverage as a necessity for business， a smart move in many ways for an individual who needs capital， but excessive leverage is a house of cards for a system。 It is predicated on predictions （I will be able to pay you back） which may not necessarily be true and creates a web of interdependent predictions which is the opposite of robust。 The 2008 financial crisis perfectly illustrated this failure of prediction， misapplication of statistics， woeful ignorance by regulators， and bad incentives for the practitioners。The fourth point is this misapplication of statistics。 We misappropriate statistical models into our financial markets， climate models， and others。 Modelling itself is not the problem， it is the misapplication of it which is dangerous。 We often say something is better than nothing， but Taleb likens this misapplication of models to using a map of the Pyrenees whilst lost in the Alps。 Much humility is required in the face of unknown unknowns with intensely grave consequences。 This is true of using Gaussian distributions in financial markets that are fat-tailed。 Is it really better than nothing？ Or is it even worse？ I've noticed a lot of assumptions we make in our statistical calculations for research data。 The sample size calculations for statistical power rely on assumptions of the magnitude of the outcome。 Circular reasoning much？Finally， back to the Black Swan and distributions。 For Taleb （per his Twitter）， this pandemic should not have been a black swan precisely because it has happened before and we should know better。 A Black Swan is an event occurring outside of our observed probability distribution and has grave consequences。 His illustration is of a turkey observing its regular daily schedule。 Food， water， clean shelter all provided for by the human ever since it was born。 All the statistical evidence is that the stock market never goes down。 Until Thanksgiving when the turkey is slaughtered。 That is a Black Swan for the turkey， but not the butcher。 The key is to realize when we're the turkey and be humble about it。 Black Swans also are not necessarily negative。 Positive Black Swans can also occur， like finding yourself in a scalable job that produces profit out of proportion to your work。 Modern sports starts， rock star， tech CEOs， author of a best selling book。 Technology has allowed all of these occupations to "scale" versus a musician in the 18th century。Taleb has a good "quadrant" system to help identify where we should exercise caution: consider the magnitude of the effect and the possible distribution of the odds。 If something were very low magnitude， the assumptions are probably fine。 But if something is of a large magnitude （possibly） and not in a normal distribution， you've entered Black Swan territory。Taleb is a bit long-winded because he goes on and on and re-states his points many times。 There are also the snide remarks peppered throughout against those who disagree with him。 Yes， Taleb is often hypocritical when attacking others while bemoaning ad hominem attacks against him。 Taleb also regards himself rather highly。 Regardless， he is more often right than not， and this is a great book。 。。。more
Alexander Zvonov
，
Ооочень странная книга。 Философия и размышления на тему непредсказуемости непредсказуемого пронизывают ее всю， вводя в замешательство и отводя на задний план какие либо практические посылы。 Эта книга точно не из первой десятки бизнесс книг， рекомендуемой к прочтению。
Eva Forslund
，
A lot of great points， overshadowed by the author's self righteousness and arrogance。 Let me summarize the book for you: The bell curve is grossly over used and over rated。 A lot of great points， overshadowed by the author's self righteousness and arrogance。 Let me summarize the book for you: The bell curve is grossly over used and over rated。 。。。more
Naveen K
，