Thinking in Bets: Making Smarter Decisions When You Don't Have All the Facts
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- Create Date：2021-05-14 11:55:00
- Update Date：2025-09-06
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- Author：Annie Duke
- ISBN：0735216371
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Summary
Poker champion turned business consultant Annie Duke teaches you how to get comfortable with uncertainty and make better decisions as a result。
In Super Bowl XLIX， Seahawks coach Pete Carroll made one of the most controversial calls in football history: With 26 seconds remaining， and trailing by four at the Patriots' one-yard line， he called for a pass instead of a hand off to his star running back。 The pass was intercepted and the Seahawks lost。 Critics called it the dumbest play in history。 But was the call really that bad？ Or did Carroll actually make a great move that was ruined by bad luck？
Even the best decision doesn't yield the best outcome every time。 There's always an element of luck that you can't control， and there is always information that is hidden from view。 So the key to long-term success （and avoiding worrying yourself to death） is to think in bets: How sure am I？ What are the possible ways things could turn out？ What decision has the highest odds of success？ Did I land in the unlucky 10% on the strategy that works 90% of the time？ Or is my success attributable to dumb luck rather than great decision making？
Annie Duke， a former World Series of Poker champion turned business consultant， draws on examples from business， sports， politics， and （of course） poker to share tools anyone can use to embrace uncertainty and make better decisions。 For most people， it's difficult to say "I'm not sure" in a world that values and， even， rewards the appearance of certainty。 But professional poker players are comfortable with the fact that great decisions don't always lead to great outcomes and bad decisions don't always lead to bad outcomes。
By shifting your thinking from a need for certainty to a goal of accurately assessing what you know and what you don't， you'll be less vulnerable to reactive emotions， knee-jerk biases， and destructive habits in your decision making。 You'll become more confident， calm， compassionate and successful in the long run。
In Super Bowl XLIX， Seahawks coach Pete Carroll made one of the most controversial calls in football history: With 26 seconds remaining， and trailing by four at the Patriots' one-yard line， he called for a pass instead of a hand off to his star running back。 The pass was intercepted and the Seahawks lost。 Critics called it the dumbest play in history。 But was the call really that bad？ Or did Carroll actually make a great move that was ruined by bad luck？
Even the best decision doesn't yield the best outcome every time。 There's always an element of luck that you can't control， and there is always information that is hidden from view。 So the key to long-term success （and avoiding worrying yourself to death） is to think in bets: How sure am I？ What are the possible ways things could turn out？ What decision has the highest odds of success？ Did I land in the unlucky 10% on the strategy that works 90% of the time？ Or is my success attributable to dumb luck rather than great decision making？
Annie Duke， a former World Series of Poker champion turned business consultant， draws on examples from business， sports， politics， and （of course） poker to share tools anyone can use to embrace uncertainty and make better decisions。 For most people， it's difficult to say "I'm not sure" in a world that values and， even， rewards the appearance of certainty。 But professional poker players are comfortable with the fact that great decisions don't always lead to great outcomes and bad decisions don't always lead to bad outcomes。
By shifting your thinking from a need for certainty to a goal of accurately assessing what you know and what you don't， you'll be less vulnerable to reactive emotions， knee-jerk biases， and destructive habits in your decision making。 You'll become more confident， calm， compassionate and successful in the long run。
Reviews
Rob McFarren
，
This book was really really good。 Surprised me with how simple yet important this concept is in decision making。 Not right/wrong， but probability based decision making and how this leads us last certain biases and faults we make in our thinking。 Really cool， and I keep catching myself and how I evaluate my life decisions。 Read this one！
Morgan
，
Excellent， clear overview of how to apply probabalistic thinking to all parts of your life， and why you should
Alex Krotz
，
This book provided great things to think about and a really interesting perspective on decision making and planning for the future to equip you for best possible outcomes， but also understand that they are only probable not guaranteed and how to deal with that。 That I very much enjoyed， however， I really struggled to get through the writing。 A ton of the book felt very repetitive and could have been shortened down significantly。 I felt like it as getting the same ideas over and over with only sm This book provided great things to think about and a really interesting perspective on decision making and planning for the future to equip you for best possible outcomes， but also understand that they are only probable not guaranteed and how to deal with that。 That I very much enjoyed， however， I really struggled to get through the writing。 A ton of the book felt very repetitive and could have been shortened down significantly。 I felt like it as getting the same ideas over and over with only small changes so the lesson being described felt very drawn out， unlike many books that give you the lesson then a few examples to explore it further。Great concepts， but I personally was not a fan of the writing and structuring， a nice summary of the ideas would probably do just fine for this book。 。。。more
Monique De
，
Great framework for assessing your decision-making
Cody
，
Good book， good concept introduction。The idea that probabilities are really just that and that we should be comfortable with uncertainty inherent in decision outcomes to better evaluate them is great。Very little in terms of actionable suggestion here is what lowers my rating。 The book gives some broad ideas for how to re-structure your thinking but most of the actionable examples are outside of the business/sales world the book is marketed to。Still worth a read。
Library of
，
Great book on the pursuit of rational decision making。 Below are my notes。 More like these on other books can be found at www。libraryof。xyzAnnie Duke is an American who for most of her life has been a professional poker player。 She has won several major tournaments and has an estimated net worth of $8m。 The book is partly a biography and partly a “how to guide” on how to think better and make more rational decisions。 Duke left poker in 2012 and has since then been a lecturer and strategy consult Great book on the pursuit of rational decision making。 Below are my notes。 More like these on other books can be found at www。libraryof。xyzAnnie Duke is an American who for most of her life has been a professional poker player。 She has won several major tournaments and has an estimated net worth of $8m。 The book is partly a biography and partly a “how to guide” on how to think better and make more rational decisions。 Duke left poker in 2012 and has since then been a lecturer and strategy consultant。PROCESS BEFORE OUTCOME。 The average person evaluates decisions by outcome。 That is wrong。 Instead， decisions should be evaluated based on the estimated expected value， and whether the basis for the decision was the best possible at the time of the decision。 Our biases are our biggest obstacles for making high-quality decisions。 Studies have shown that smart people are more prone to biases， as they are better at creating narratives that reinforce their opinions。LIFE IS A LONG SERIES OF BETS。 Every decision we make is actually a bet， the outcome of which will affect the direction our life take。 To make good decisions， we need a good basis for decision-making and we need to be capable of rational thinking and action。 Each decision provides more information that we should use to calibrate our opinions before future decisions。 By repeating this process， we improve our ability to make decisions while maximizing our chances of getting the life we want。 This mindset makes life a game with limited information。 For every decision we make， our “opponent” is all alternative versions of ourselves that other decisions would lead to。“Learning might proceed in a more ideal way if life were more like chess than poker。 The connection between outcome quality and decision quality would be clearer because there would be less uncertainty。 The challenge is that any single outcome can happen for multiple reasons。 The unfolding future is a big data dump that we have to sort and interpret。 And the world doesn’t connect the dots for us between outcomes and causes。”WANNA BET？ By asking yourself if you would be ready to invest money based on your opinion， you can more easily put biases aside。 Depending on how much money you are willing to bet， and at what odds， it becomes clear how strongly you really believe in something。 By having a constant “wanna bet？”-loop， we can more easily find shortcomings in our reasoning and become more open to taking in contradictory information。 This makes it easier for us to become the rational “truth seekers” which makes us better decision makers。PREMORTEMS & BACKCASTING。 Premortems is a method that is based on imagining that five years have passed， and that we have failed in attaining our goal。 We ask ourselves what went wrong and why。 In this way， the traps we have in front of us become clearer and we can more easily avoid going into them。 Backcasting is about imagining that we have reached our goal， and then going backwards through what took us there。 That way we can see more clearly what we need to do to get there。 It is easier to stand at the finish line and look back than to stand at the starting line and look forward。ODYSSEUS CONTRACTS。 Odysseus was the Greek mythological hero who would sail past the island with the seductively singing sirens。 He knew that when he heard the song he would sail to the shore， and there death would meet him， like so many seafarers before him。 But by tying himself to the mast， he overcame his irrational self。 By setting up “Odysseus contracts”， voluntarily set rules， we can raise a barrier against irrationality。 These contracts mean that in the future we can act according to what is long-term beneficial for us。10-10-10。 Duke believes that we often find it difficult to include a discounted future into our decision making。 If something feels good at the moment， but is bad in the long run， the current enjoyment usually gets a higher weight。 Typical examples are junk food and alcohol。 One technique for thinking and acting more rationally around this type of question is to use the 10-10-10 method。 To ask yourself that if you do x， how will it affect you in 10 minutes， in 10 months and in 10 years？ It then becomes clear what is perhaps only positive for the moment， but bad over time， and then easier to avoid what attracts。“Life， like poker， is one long game， and there are going to be a lot of losses， even after making the best possible bets。 We are going to do better， and be happier， if we start by recognizing that we’ll never be sure of the future。 That changes our task from trying to be right every time， an impossible job， to navigating move toward， little by little， a more accurate and objective representation of the world。 With strategic foresight and perspective， that’s manageable work。 If we keep learning and calibrating， we might even get good at it。” 。。。more
Gauri A
，
A really overrated book - the short message is don’t fall prey to hindsight bias and be mindful of the role luck and skill play in the way decisions pan out 。 Rather think probabilistically to improve decision making
Maksim Borissov
，
There are some interesting ideas how to make decisions （positive/negative thinking， always try to get opposite opinion， etc） and how to get the maximum from working on that within the group， though too many times author returns to the same stories for the reference and to poker。 This book could be like 1。39 times shorter。。。 wanna bet？！
Keith Wagner
，
An interesting read for anyone I interested in the sociology of decision making。 While I would have enjoyed more poker stories， the author tells you up front that this is not a book about poker。 It is however a book about making decisions without all the information。 As both a chess player and a poker player myself， I enjoyed the authors perspective that ‘Life is Poker not Chess’。
Michael
，
Usually books like this are awful， but honestly I really liked this。 The idea that life is like poker not chess really works as a metaphor， and the fact that there are pretty much just four or five stories that she goes back to over and over works。 Its not a particularly nuanced or innovative book， but its very listen-able。 The ideas here aren't particularly new， especially if you follow Nate Silver， but its much better than Silver's book in terms of plain language and practical advice。 Also sup Usually books like this are awful， but honestly I really liked this。 The idea that life is like poker not chess really works as a metaphor， and the fact that there are pretty much just four or five stories that she goes back to over and over works。 Its not a particularly nuanced or innovative book， but its very listen-able。 The ideas here aren't particularly new， especially if you follow Nate Silver， but its much better than Silver's book in terms of plain language and practical advice。 Also super appreciated that significant time is spent on how to build a group around you that thinks in bets and also when to NOT engage in this kind of hyperrational thinking 。。。more
Tiago
，
This book is a solid 3。5 stars but as I am becoming stingy with my stars lately I am going to round it down to 3 stars。 Annie Duke is an accomplished poker player and after reading this book I discovered her research and writing skills。The book's main takeaway message is two-fold: 1） think probabilistically （learn to embrace uncertainty and stop thinking in black and white terms）， 2） be aware of all the cognitive biases that impair our decision making。 In that sense Annie Duke is drinking from P This book is a solid 3。5 stars but as I am becoming stingy with my stars lately I am going to round it down to 3 stars。 Annie Duke is an accomplished poker player and after reading this book I discovered her research and writing skills。The book's main takeaway message is two-fold: 1） think probabilistically （learn to embrace uncertainty and stop thinking in black and white terms）， 2） be aware of all the cognitive biases that impair our decision making。 In that sense Annie Duke is drinking from Philip Tetlock's "Superforecasting" and Daniel Kahneman's "Thinking Fast and Slow" but with the difference that she frames this problem of decision making in terms of bets， which is truly fascinating。 Everytime we are making a decision we are betting on a setting of beliefs we are holding at a given time。 The issue here is how we form these beliefs （all the cognitive biases and system 1/system 2 struggles play a role）。 As Annie points out the outcome of every decision （bet） we make is due to the quality of the decision itself or simply due to pure luck。 After each outcome we refine our set of beliefs for the next time we neek to make a similar decision。 In the second half of the book， Annie lays out very good and actionable tips。 Another positive aspect of the book is that she uses a couple of cases throughout the book showing how each of her tips would have helped making sense of the decision。 Also， her peppering of poker analogies was really nice。 The poor aspect of the book is that， like most books of this kind， the writing can be a too repetitive and some chapters have long introductions that could have been cut in some places without losing the gist of the message。 。。。more
David
，
An fascinating review of behavioral economics/psychology from the perspective of a poker player。A good primer on probabilistic thinking illustrated by interesting anecdotes。It would have been great if Annie had summarized how to implement the lessons espoused in an easy to follow model at the end of the book。
Jonathan
，
This whole book is essentially a justification of the phrase， "Trust the process"。 Of course the difficult part is trusting the process over the outcome。 “What makes a decision great is not that it has a great outcome。 A great decision is the result of a good process， and that process must include an attempt to accurately represent our own state of knowledge。 That state of knowledge， in turn， is some variation of “I’m not sure。” Basically we need to step out of our emotional shoes， and into our This whole book is essentially a justification of the phrase， "Trust the process"。 Of course the difficult part is trusting the process over the outcome。 “What makes a decision great is not that it has a great outcome。 A great decision is the result of a good process， and that process must include an attempt to accurately represent our own state of knowledge。 That state of knowledge， in turn， is some variation of “I’m not sure。” Basically we need to step out of our emotional shoes， and into our logical ones; looking at every decision based on probability over opinion。 The main point of the book is that we should make our opinions bets， with certainties attached。 This means we must make a prediction about what will happen， a bet based on that prediction， and then reevaluate afterwards to see where the flaws in our prediction making were。 This is all well and good， but takes far too much effort to be employed in most of life's mundane decisions。 Another aspect not taken into account here is that in interpersonal relationships， how you feel is important。 Take it from someone who does typically evaluate decisions based on probability: you can't just tell your partner "no you're wrong， I ran the numbers"， and expect to have a productive conversation。 Sometimes feelings trump facts。 Not usually though。 The promise of this book is that if we follow the example of poker players by making explicit that our decisions are bets， we can make better decisions and anticipate （and take protective measures） when irrationality is likely to keep us from acting in our best interest。 。。。more
Victor Debone
，
I had to read it twice to make the most out of this book， and I expect to read it again。 One of the broadest non-scientific books I read， it can apply to pretty much every piece of your life。 It’s a bible of practical， applicable stuff。The book boils down to give you a cold water shower in the sense of what you truly believe， wanna bet？ Well， that’s the whole point， betting。 And it’s everywhere you look。 Every decision you make in your life you are making a choice with a limited amount of knowle I had to read it twice to make the most out of this book， and I expect to read it again。 One of the broadest non-scientific books I read， it can apply to pretty much every piece of your life。 It’s a bible of practical， applicable stuff。The book boils down to give you a cold water shower in the sense of what you truly believe， wanna bet？ Well， that’s the whole point， betting。 And it’s everywhere you look。 Every decision you make in your life you are making a choice with a limited amount of knowledge， essentially betting on the outcomes。 Good choices can have bad outcomes， and you shouldn’t necessarily change your choices because of that。 Keep sight of the learning opportunities and the biases。 。。。more
Kevin Liou
，
This book could really have been condensed into 30 pages。
Tiller Tomažin
，
The book is good and has lots of applications， but it could have been a little more concise。
Dav
，
Good content， but repetitive。 One of those pop science kind of books that could have just as well been a long article。 The recommended reading section is solid。
Lewis Burik
，
This 230 page book is about 210 pages too long。 Some interesting kernels of perspective， but extremely repetitive and reads more as recommendation engine for other books where interesting data is actually presented， as opposed to this author's book， which spits out half baked anecdote after half baked anecdote。 Also， most of the content is common sense。 But common sense is in short supply so maybe this book is worth reading to remind yourself what you already know This 230 page book is about 210 pages too long。 Some interesting kernels of perspective， but extremely repetitive and reads more as recommendation engine for other books where interesting data is actually presented， as opposed to this author's book， which spits out half baked anecdote after half baked anecdote。 Also， most of the content is common sense。 But common sense is in short supply so maybe this book is worth reading to remind yourself what you already know 。。。more
Luke Daghir
，
Duke has a two-fold knowledge: she knows the books and real-life examples to share the knowledge from the books。 Duke has a top to bottom and bottom to top understanding of thinking。Here are my thoughts:1。 Duke paints portraits of persons that are very helpful in grasping the content of this book。 2。 Another key technique Duke utilizes is short sections within the larger chapter。 This helps to "chunk" material for the reader。 3。 Duke gives good examples on how to help a person think better: from Duke has a two-fold knowledge: she knows the books and real-life examples to share the knowledge from the books。 Duke has a top to bottom and bottom to top understanding of thinking。Here are my thoughts:1。 Duke paints portraits of persons that are very helpful in grasping the content of this book。 2。 Another key technique Duke utilizes is short sections within the larger chapter。 This helps to "chunk" material for the reader。 3。 Duke gives good examples on how to help a person think better: from devil's advocate， to seeking counsel， to being cautious of confirmation bias， hind sight bias， and emphasizing the process of decision making and not just the outcome。 。。。more
Josh Allred
，
Incredible book。 Changed the way I think of decisions。 Highly recommend this one。
Mohamed El-Marghani
，
Life’s more like poker not chess。
Tim Hughes
，
Annie Duke， the author of “thinking in bets” is a former World Series of Poker champion， turned business consultant。 In the book， Annie discusses the importance of the different types of decisions。 Good decisions can generate， bad outcomes and bad decisions can generate great outcomes。 This is something she has learned from playing poker。She also discusses the difference between “skill” and “luck”， often in life if we had a good outcome we put that down to skill and a bad outcome， we put down to Annie Duke， the author of “thinking in bets” is a former World Series of Poker champion， turned business consultant。 In the book， Annie discusses the importance of the different types of decisions。 Good decisions can generate， bad outcomes and bad decisions can generate great outcomes。 This is something she has learned from playing poker。She also discusses the difference between “skill” and “luck”， often in life if we had a good outcome we put that down to skill and a bad outcome， we put down to bad luck。 Surely everything is about skill？ Annie discusses that if you say to people “will you take a bet on that？” people will start unpacking their belief systems and the knowledge we have which we assume to be true。 Once pushed， to put our money where our belief systems are will we really do it？Finally she discusses the need to have an open mind in life and a lifelong learner。I certainly enjoyed the book and it’s worth adding to the reading list。 。。。more
Jake
，
The content of the book is pretty good overall。 As a Bayesian， I recognized many of the suggestions here by other names。 Duke comes from the perspective of game theory and lived experience as a professional poker player， not necessarily from my own Bayesian view， but she nonetheless seems to come to similar conclusions and recommendations。 For me， the latter part of the book was somewhat more interesting。 I could see recommending this book to even less math-y people looking to make better decisi The content of the book is pretty good overall。 As a Bayesian， I recognized many of the suggestions here by other names。 Duke comes from the perspective of game theory and lived experience as a professional poker player， not necessarily from my own Bayesian view， but she nonetheless seems to come to similar conclusions and recommendations。 For me， the latter part of the book was somewhat more interesting。 I could see recommending this book to even less math-y people looking to make better decisions。However， I experienced this book as the audiobook read by the author， and I didn't enjoy that experience as much。 The pronunciation of words far was very nasal far too often。 "Bets" sometimes became "bats"， "guessing" became "gassing"， and so on。 I may have just been in a mood， but it was a consistent turnoff。 I'd recommend trying the print experience instead。 。。。more
Outdoors Nerd
，
Had reservations this was a self-help book by a ‘guru’ not an expert。 I was wrong。。。Not limited to thinking in bets （examine what we do and don’t know and what our level of confidence is in our beliefs and predictions）， this covers a smorgasbord of mental critical-thinking heuristics。 E。g。。。Realisation of uncertainty - embrace being wrongDebating methods - to learn not defeatOrganised skepticism: real skeptics make arguments and friendsAssessing the influence of luck on your outcomesUsing outcom Had reservations this was a self-help book by a ‘guru’ not an expert。 I was wrong。。。Not limited to thinking in bets （examine what we do and don’t know and what our level of confidence is in our beliefs and predictions）， this covers a smorgasbord of mental critical-thinking heuristics。 E。g。。。Realisation of uncertainty - embrace being wrongDebating methods - to learn not defeatOrganised skepticism: real skeptics make arguments and friendsAssessing the influence of luck on your outcomesUsing outcomes as educationGetting out of echo chambers - recruit dissenting opinionsRight vs Wrong is wrong Awareness of cognitive biases10-10-10 time travel tool - how any given moment might fit into the scope of time。Ulysses contractsAnd so much more。So so good！ 。。。more
Christine Woods
，
Well written， particularly interesting expansion on how to defend against conformation bias and group think。
Liam Polkinghorne
，
Extremely important book about decision-making under uncertainty。Treat decisions as bets。 Treat outcome fielding as bets。Say ‘wanna bet’？Change habit of self serving bias。 Take positive feeling from finding things to learn from， and doing that better than others。No strategy can turn us into perfectly rational actors。 In addition， we can make the best possible decisions and still not get the result we want。 Improving decision quality is about increasing our chances of good outcomes， not guarantee Extremely important book about decision-making under uncertainty。Treat decisions as bets。 Treat outcome fielding as bets。Say ‘wanna bet’？Change habit of self serving bias。 Take positive feeling from finding things to learn from， and doing that better than others。No strategy can turn us into perfectly rational actors。 In addition， we can make the best possible decisions and still not get the result we want。 Improving decision quality is about increasing our chances of good outcomes， not guaranteeing them。 Even when that effort makes a small difference - more rational thinking and fewer emotional decisions， translated into an increased probability of better outcomes - it can have a significant impact on how our lives turn out。 Good results compound。 Good processes become habits and make possible future calibration and improvement。Once something occurs， we no longer think of it as probabilistic - or as ever having been probabilistic。 This is how we get into the frame of mind where we say “I should have known” or “I told you so”。 One of the things poker teaches is that we have to take satisfaction in assessing the probabilities of different outcomes given the decisions under consideration and in executing the bet we think is best。 There are going to be a lot of losses， even after making the best possible bets。 。。。more
DJ Satoda
，
A really interesting idea and concept， but it’s a simple enough idea that I’m not sure a whole book is needed to appreciate it。 I might suggest consuming a podcast featuring the author instead
Madeline
，
One of my favorite books ever。 So applicable to every day life and the decisions we face。
Sharon
，
This is an absolutely fantastic book about decision-making。 I listened to the audiobook via the library and this is one I may pick up later on Audible to listen again。 In life， we never have all of the information we need in order to make a decision， so in a way， we are always， "thinking in bets，" but we fall prey to all or nothing thinking。 This book covers a lot of ways to reframe decisions in order to have better outcomes。 >> 5-stars - highly recommended （to everyone）。 This is an absolutely fantastic book about decision-making。 I listened to the audiobook via the library and this is one I may pick up later on Audible to listen again。 In life， we never have all of the information we need in order to make a decision， so in a way， we are always， "thinking in bets，" but we fall prey to all or nothing thinking。 This book covers a lot of ways to reframe decisions in order to have better outcomes。 >> 5-stars - highly recommended （to everyone）。 。。。more
Nancy Sun
，