Psychology

How to Decide: Simple Tools for Making Better Choices

How to Decide: Simple Tools for Making Better Choices

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  • Type：Epub+TxT+PDF+Mobi
  • Create Date：2021-05-14 11:53:56
  • Update Date：2025-09-06
  • Status：finish
  • Author：Annie Duke
  • ISBN：0593418484
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Summary

Through a blend of compelling exercises， illustrations， and stories， the bestselling author of Thinking in Bets will train you to combat your own biases， address your weaknesses， and help you become a better and more confident decision-maker。

What do you do when you're faced with a big decision？ If you're like most people， you probably make a pro and con list， spend a lot of time obsessing about decisions that didn't work out， get caught in analysis paralysis， endlessly seek other people's opinions to find just that little bit of extra information that might make you sure， and finally go with your gut。

What if there was a better way to make quality decisions so you can think clearly， feel more confident， second-guess yourself less， and ultimately be more decisive and be more productive？

Making good decisions doesn't have to be a series of endless guesswork。 Rather， it's a teachable skill that anyone can sharpen。 In How to Decide， bestselling author Annie Duke and former professional poker player lays out a series of tools anyone can use to make better decisions。 You'll learn:

- To identify and dismantle hidden biases。
- To extract the highest quality feedback from those whose advice you seek。
- To more accurately identify the influence of luck in the outcome of your decisions。
- When to decide fast， when to decide slow， and when to decide in advance。
- To make decisions that more effectively help you to realize your goals and live your values。

Through interactive exercises and engaging thought experiments， this book helps you analyze key decisions you've made in the past and troubleshoot those you're making in the future。 Whether you're picking investments， evaluating a job offer， or trying to figure out your romantic life， How to Decide is the key to happier outcomes and fewer regrets。

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Reviews

Razvan Coca ，

Structured thinking about decisions。 And remains simple。

Pranav Mutatkar ，

Not new under the sun， but a great workbook summary with ideas of how to practicalize statistical thinking

Derek ，

This review has been hidden because it contains spoilers。 To view it， click here。 Liked the book。 Seems to be more focused on exercises to get the mind thinking。 As Annie mentioned， this stared as workbook of Thinking in Bets and morphed into something on its own。 I like that it laid out a framework for making decisions and the different scenarios we can get into when making decisions。I suspect a lot of it is covered in other "decision" books but will leave it as that。 I have yet to finish "Thinking Fast and Slow" but I suspect that would be the definitive guy about thinking Liked the book。 Seems to be more focused on exercises to get the mind thinking。 As Annie mentioned， this stared as workbook of Thinking in Bets and morphed into something on its own。 I like that it laid out a framework for making decisions and the different scenarios we can get into when making decisions。I suspect a lot of it is covered in other "decision" books but will leave it as that。 I have yet to finish "Thinking Fast and Slow" but I suspect that would be the definitive guy about thinking and decision making。 Overall a good read and breaking decision making down into various steps makes it clear on what to do to make a good decision。 I like the exercises because by simply doing it makes you practice and hence encourages retention。 。。。more

Viktoriya Gruzdyn ，

Why is it so important to have a high-quality decision process？ Because there are only two things that determine how your life turns out: luck and the quality of your decisions。 You have control over only one of those two things。Luck， by definition， is out of your control。And when you make better-quality decisions， you increase the chances that good things will happen to you。In general， we don’t question our own beliefs enough。 We have too much confidence in what we think we know and we don’t ha Why is it so important to have a high-quality decision process？ Because there are only two things that determine how your life turns out: luck and the quality of your decisions。 You have control over only one of those two things。Luck， by definition， is out of your control。And when you make better-quality decisions， you increase the chances that good things will happen to you。In general， we don’t question our own beliefs enough。 We have too much confidence in what we think we know and we don’t have a realistic view of what we don’t know。 Making it a habit to ask yourself， “If I were wrong， why would that be？” helps get you to approach your own beliefs with more skepticism， disciplining your naturally overly optimistic view of what you know and getting you more focused on what you don’t know。 One of the best ways to improve the quality of your beliefs is to get other people’s perspectives。 When their beliefs diverge from yours， it improves your decision-making by exposing you to corrective information and the stuff you don’t know。 。。。more

Matt Cannon ，

This is a great book with all kinds of practical tools for decision making。 I've learned a lot from Annie Duke from her Thinking in Bets book， interviews and posts she's made。 This book continues to build on probability and decision making skills。 In this book she talked about "resulting"。 This is where the outcome tail is wagging the decision dog。 It's a mental shortcut where we use the quality of the outcome to measure the quality of the decision。 I've fell for this trap before on the positive This is a great book with all kinds of practical tools for decision making。 I've learned a lot from Annie Duke from her Thinking in Bets book， interviews and posts she's made。 This book continues to build on probability and decision making skills。 In this book she talked about "resulting"。 This is where the outcome tail is wagging the decision dog。 It's a mental shortcut where we use the quality of the outcome to measure the quality of the decision。 I've fell for this trap before on the positive and negative side of my decisions。 Resulting can work both ways。 It can also make you think you've made a bad decision due to a bad outcome， which isn't always true。 She uses the example of Pete Carroll， the coach of the Seattle Seahawks against New England Patriots during SuperBowl XLIX when he chose to pass instead of run with seconds left in game。 You can read more about that here https://www。annieduke。com/how-to-make。。。 This always resonated with me as Patriot's fan。 I wondered why he decided to pass instead of run and used resulting to attribute the bad outcome to bad coaching。 If you dig deeper， you see that's clearly not the case。 In this book she outlines how being a better decision maker means being a better predictor of a set of possible futures。 The book is designed to sharpen your skills and get you closer to having a crystal ball while understanding the way the future will unfold is always uncertain。 I liked the section on the "outside vs inside" view。 It involves looking for base rates， being eager to hear people disagree with you and looking where the inside and outside view collide。 She goes into an example where a Daniel Kahneman study found that weather didn't impact happiness too much。 This collides with most people's view and perspective on the weather as it relates to decision making， such as choosing a place to live。 She talks about "when the decision is hard， that means it's easy"。 Think of taking a trip to Paris or Rome。 You may obsess about which one will be a better trip， but at the end of the day， they're both great choices。 Just flip a coin。 She covers the only options test - also known as the sheep in wolves clothing test and the menu strategy， which are both useful for decision making。 She covers opportunity costs and knowing when to hold and fold em。 There was an interesting concept that both Jeff Bezos and Richard Branson use called the 2-way door decision， which focuses on making decisions where the cost to quit is low。 The decision stacking section was particularly useful。 This is where you make several lower decisions before you go all in。 She mentioned dating as an example of this。 You go on many dates before you settle down。 There is so much more this book covers。 She refers to it as "Waze for decision making" and I agree that it is a great book that teaches many practical decision making strategies to help you become a great decision maker。 。。。more

Jessica Sant ，

As with other meaningful how-to books that seek to explain and instill a significant topic， this is definitely a book I'll need to re-read in part or in full to better understand the concepts and internalize them。 As with other meaningful how-to books that seek to explain and instill a significant topic， this is definitely a book I'll need to re-read in part or in full to better understand the concepts and internalize them。 。。。more

Will Smith ，

This review has been hidden because it contains spoilers。 To view it， click here。 Another good book from Annie Duke。 This one builds on the concepts from “Thinking in Bets” but there is enough new material it doesn’t feel like a rehash。 Overall would definitely recommend。 My notes below。 Warning: spoilers Pro and Con lists can amplify cognitive biases and don’t account for size， pro of speeding is you arrive on time but con is you potentially die， those are treated equally， is created from the inside view （see below） Resulting/outcome bias: judging a decision on the outcome r Another good book from Annie Duke。 This one builds on the concepts from “Thinking in Bets” but there is enough new material it doesn’t feel like a rehash。 Overall would definitely recommend。 My notes below。 Warning: spoilers Pro and Con lists can amplify cognitive biases and don’t account for size， pro of speeding is you arrive on time but con is you potentially die， those are treated equally， is created from the inside view （see below） Resulting/outcome bias: judging a decision on the outcome rather than the decision process， running a red light and not getting into an accident would result in you concluding running red lights is a good decision and continue doing so Hindsight bias: “I knew it would turn out this way”， resulting bias with added variable of thinking you knew outcome was predictable， need to use a knowledge tracker to see which facts came up when， most people assume they had more facts earlier than they actually did which makes decision look more predictable than it actually was Archer mindset: when predicting outcomes use the probabilities and ranges， archers don’t only get points for hitting the bullseye， use language that has leeway in it （ie between 100-200 rather than 153）， it helps you define your ranges based on information you do know rather than just focusing on what you don’t （weight of Buffalo example， use knowledge of weight of a car and a person as upper and lower bounds）， is especially important for managers as it signals you know you are missing knowledge which encourages feedback which should improve decision making process， try to set ranges that would include the answer 90% of the time， assuming you don’t know the answer generally improves decisions because people don’t question their beliefs enough， talk in specific terms in order to avoid confusion， for example “real possibility” might mean 30% to one person and 70% to another and they wouldn’t know they disagree Inside view: not being able to judge yourself objectively， being smart here is a negative as you can analyze data to fit your own biases ， apply base rates to counter the inside view， create a culture where it’s okay to disagree to no have your inside view reinforced， seek out dissenting views （outside view） and weight them heavily initially， describe a situation from the outside view using base rates then your inside view before finding the intersection to reach your decision Time vs Accuracy: when allocating time need to making a decision need to consider （1） impact （2） repeatability and （3） similarities of choices， when option are very similar the decision may seem hard but it’s actually easy because you are “tilting into windmills”， impact should be judged from the future view， how much will this decision affect happiness in one year， choosing Paris or Rome for a one off EU vacation may seem hard but the difference to happiness is minimal so is not worth the analysis paralysis， use the “only option test” to see if you would be happy with that outcome， if so flip a coin， opportunity cost is low if option is repeatable， low impact， or cheap， don’t be afraid to fold the hand to cut the losses， time already spent is expensive but now sunk， quitting lowers the cost of decisions and people that are willing to quit often make better decisions， “being quitty can be the right option when things are gritty”， when deciding when to decide consider （1） is information available that will help （2） how costly is the information （3） is the choice reversible Pre Mortem: identify goal and reasonable time frame for achieving it， put yourself at that future date but assume you failed and now look back and list the 5 reasons why for both your decisions and external factors， have the rest of the team do the same independently， compare analysis Back casting （aka pre parade）: opposite of a pre mortem， roll forward in time and figure out what reasons made the decision turn out well， were they in your control or not， think of non obvious reasons for success， this is less useful than a pre mortem as you want to cultivate the outsiders view rather than reinforcing your insiders view Pre commitment （aka Ulysses contract）: write a pre quit contract that defines specific criteria to quit， what items would cause you to change your mind， use the pre mortem as a basis， raise friction for decisions that could turn out poorly， lower friction for decisions that avoid downsideCompetence circle: define what you are good at and limit your efforts to that， Biotech is too technical and I don’t understand it so I’m not going to invest in that sector Countering Group Think: get peoples feedback before they know what you think， they they know what you think the diversity of the feedback plummets， it removes peer pressure and hindsight bias， can help to anonymize first round of feedback to avoid status bias （highest ranking persons feedback weighed highest）， WS: red team investment pitches useful to court/protect dissenting feedback or have team send feedback before meeting in a way others can’t see beforehand？ 。。。more

brigette marty ，

As someone who often makes intuitive decisions I found the frameworks and concepts helpful。

Bianca A。 ，

Pretty useful book on decision skills。 4 instead of 5 stars because the message and lessons could have been either more numerous or sent to the audience in a more compact format。 Also the author has waaaaaay too many books on decision making in different circumstances - but I can bet my money that they all regurgitate the same information， but with more appeal to the markets they claim to cater to。

Thunderhawke23 ，

A fantastic work book on decision makingAnnie Duke has built a fantastic workbook for decision making。 She starts with common biases and then systematically builds from there。 The exercises she lays out are illustrative and not too burden some。 I highly recommend this book to any organization that would like it's employees to think more like managers and leaders。 A fantastic work book on decision makingAnnie Duke has built a fantastic workbook for decision making。 She starts with common biases and then systematically builds from there。 The exercises she lays out are illustrative and not too burden some。 I highly recommend this book to any organization that would like it's employees to think more like managers and leaders。 。。。more

Vivian Wolkoff ，

Thw concepts presented here are explained in a straightforward way I appreciate。 But there's so much information here I felt a little lost at times。 But some of that might be on me。 It didn't help that I read this book over a long stretch of time。 Thw concepts presented here are explained in a straightforward way I appreciate。 But there's so much information here I felt a little lost at times。 But some of that might be on me。 It didn't help that I read this book over a long stretch of time。 。。。more

Ryan Barretto ，

This is an amazing book。 I personally believe it should be taught in colleges， if not schools。The author looks at decision making as an activity worthy of deep thought through considering different perspectives， probabilities and biases。 There are exercises for self reflection that encourage you to think beyond what you know and explore other areas of knowledge。I can't recommend this enough to any person who wants to improve the ability to make decisions that give them maximum possible outcomes This is an amazing book。 I personally believe it should be taught in colleges， if not schools。The author looks at decision making as an activity worthy of deep thought through considering different perspectives， probabilities and biases。 There are exercises for self reflection that encourage you to think beyond what you know and explore other areas of knowledge。I can't recommend this enough to any person who wants to improve the ability to make decisions that give them maximum possible outcomes （though it's not possible in the real world。 。。。more

Agata ，

I found this book to be repetitive and too long。 Even though the general idea and tips on how to decide may be helpful to me in the future， I couldn't force myself to read through all extensive examples， stories and explanations。 After the 3rd chapter I've decided to read just the wrap-ups and I might come back to those if I need to decide on something very important in the future。 I found this book to be repetitive and too long。 Even though the general idea and tips on how to decide may be helpful to me in the future， I couldn't force myself to read through all extensive examples， stories and explanations。 After the 3rd chapter I've decided to read just the wrap-ups and I might come back to those if I need to decide on something very important in the future。 。。。more

Sarah Page ，

The tools and ideas， especially combatting biases， were helpful and clearly conveyed。 I found it went too slowly when I did the exercises as well， so I skipped most of them， but I plan go back to the tools/exercises when they will be useful。

Laura ，

Straightforward adviceRead this if you want solid advice about how to make better decisions。 Duke takes you through a step by step process that will help you understand why you make decisions badly and how to make better decisions。

Kevin Albrecht ，

Simple and practical guide to making better decisions。 But don't let the simplicity fool you。 Its tools are incredibly powerful。 Simple and practical guide to making better decisions。 But don't let the simplicity fool you。 Its tools are incredibly powerful。 。。。more

Nacho Bassino ，

A short and practical book with good advice on how to make better decisions in different contexts。

Kent Winward ，

Do the number of stars I give help you decide？ This is a nice synthesis of how to make better decisions。 Nice for a refresher。 Did those two sentences help？ Not a real downside to thinking about making better decisions。 。 。

Jair Benavidez ，

This book is the closest I have ever read on how to apply the concepts of behavioural economics to your daily life。 Is a workbook， it gives you tools （all easier said than done）。I read this book as the continuation and the vol。 2 of previous Annie's book "Thinking in Bets"; so if you have read that book it will be easy -though sometimes repetitive- to follow up on the concept and all our cognitive biases when making choices。I suggest you get the printed version， the book contains checklists， ple This book is the closest I have ever read on how to apply the concepts of behavioural economics to your daily life。 Is a workbook， it gives you tools （all easier said than done）。I read this book as the continuation and the vol。 2 of previous Annie's book "Thinking in Bets"; so if you have read that book it will be easy -though sometimes repetitive- to follow up on the concept and all our cognitive biases when making choices。I suggest you get the printed version， the book contains checklists， plenty of questions for the reader that in audio or kindle version become a pain in the neck。 -It was a wrong decision to purchase the kindle version - I should've read the book first =） 。。。more

Matt Busche ，

Each chapter could easily be a full length book， but only the most important features are included。 Really great book， quick read。

Stephanie Fuccio ，

Only got a few chapters in It was too repetitive to go on。 I really thought it would be more streamlined。 Love the idea but not so much the book。

Josh Finnie ，

This was a very interesting read。 The whole idea on how one goes about making decisions is something I haven't really thought about， but after reading this book I need to rethink how I decide。 Throughout the book Annie give some very thought provoking examples to help you along your journey。 I'd definitely recommend this book， but I do struggle with seeing how I will go about my daily life adopting what I have learned here due to how drastic of a change I'll need to make。 This was a very interesting read。 The whole idea on how one goes about making decisions is something I haven't really thought about， but after reading this book I need to rethink how I decide。 Throughout the book Annie give some very thought provoking examples to help you along your journey。 I'd definitely recommend this book， but I do struggle with seeing how I will go about my daily life adopting what I have learned here due to how drastic of a change I'll need to make。 。。。more

Brian Weisz ，

Good advice on how to make decisions。 The whole way through I thought it felt a lot like a workbook for Thinking in Bets， her earlier book。 In the acknowledgments at the end she said it started out as a workbook for Thinking in Bets。 So， I nailed it， but I guess I was hoping for more than that。

Nick Salenga ，

This is a great book that will help you attain happier outcomes & live with few regrets in whether you are picking investments， deciding on career， starting business， or just weighing options on menu。

Sarah ，

This review has been hidden because it contains spoilers。 To view it， click here。 Did not finish。 Got about halfway through， hoping the book would get interesting and it really didn't。 The first third talked mostly about biases。 I found the section about resulting to be interesting because I hadn't really thought about my bias on decision-making based on the results I had seen。 Then it got into the very math-y probability / risk calculation for decision-making。 The general framework is good - make a decision tree， indicate likelihood and payoffs， intent， etc。 But I just don't Did not finish。 Got about halfway through， hoping the book would get interesting and it really didn't。 The first third talked mostly about biases。 I found the section about resulting to be interesting because I hadn't really thought about my bias on decision-making based on the results I had seen。 Then it got into the very math-y probability / risk calculation for decision-making。 The general framework is good - make a decision tree， indicate likelihood and payoffs， intent， etc。 But I just don't know if this really needed to be a book。 I didn't feel that the exercises were helpful and generally the writing was boring。 。。。more

Douglas Meyer ，

We are not nearly as good at making decisions as we think we are。 Whether you are deciding whether to hold， raise， or fold a hand of cards; buy a house; go for it on 4th and 1; or any other decision - applying a framework that helps us to focus on process over outcome is critical。 Deciding wiht out "gut" is so fraught with issues and biases。 Annie Duke uses practical exercises， illustrative examples， and narrative stories to help the reader avoid falling victim to personal biases and weaknesses。 We are not nearly as good at making decisions as we think we are。 Whether you are deciding whether to hold， raise， or fold a hand of cards; buy a house; go for it on 4th and 1; or any other decision - applying a framework that helps us to focus on process over outcome is critical。 Deciding wiht out "gut" is so fraught with issues and biases。 Annie Duke uses practical exercises， illustrative examples， and narrative stories to help the reader avoid falling victim to personal biases and weaknesses。 Her process is simple and scalable， relative to the level of the decision。 Decision-making is critical to leadership， personal relationships， and life。。。what topic area could be more relevant？ 。。。more

Kevin Parkinson ，

Alright so admittedly I'm a bit biased。 I've been doing some of my own thinking and writing about decision-making lately， in part because of another one of Annie Duke's brilliant books， "Thinking in Bets。" So， I'm sort of geeky and in love with both decision-making science and Annie Duke。 Again: I'm biased。And yet， I must say that I found this book to be absolutely wonderful。 More and more it is apparent: While we have previously considered decision-making research an elite topic of professional Alright so admittedly I'm a bit biased。 I've been doing some of my own thinking and writing about decision-making lately， in part because of another one of Annie Duke's brilliant books， "Thinking in Bets。" So， I'm sort of geeky and in love with both decision-making science and Annie Duke。 Again: I'm biased。And yet， I must say that I found this book to be absolutely wonderful。 More and more it is apparent: While we have previously considered decision-making research an elite topic of professional development reserved exclusively for members of the C suite， it is actually a topic that can help EVERYONE in both personal and professional ways。 And， this book does an AMAZING job of introducing the general reader to the topic。 She is BRILLIANT both in the way she sees the world， and also in the way she can articulate decades of research-making science in clear and compelling ways。I highly recommend this book to all， and will be leaning on many of the concrete strategies she presents for years to go。 。。。more

Henry Suryawirawan ，

A brilliant book！ Annie peels multiple subtle and complex layers on how one can make better decisions。 The book is easy to read with lots of good exercises and checklists that help us to understand each chapter better and to aid us in the future when making decisions。 Some of the tools are simple to implement， but do not be deceived by the simplicity， since we most of the times are not conscious in our thought process and decision making。 This is definitely a book that I'm going to refer to from A brilliant book！ Annie peels multiple subtle and complex layers on how one can make better decisions。 The book is easy to read with lots of good exercises and checklists that help us to understand each chapter better and to aid us in the future when making decisions。 Some of the tools are simple to implement， but do not be deceived by the simplicity， since we most of the times are not conscious in our thought process and decision making。 This is definitely a book that I'm going to refer to from time to time in order to improve myself in navigating decisions in life， career， and relationship。 。。。more

Melvin R。 Blann IV ，

I highly recommend this book。 Annie Duke is one of my favorite experts on the subject of Decision Strategy， and this book is literally a “how-to guide” for making good decisions。 It’s really， really good。 I’ve greatly enjoyed both of her books and have been incorporating her strategies into my decision making process。 I’ll be revisiting this book many times to keep the strategies fresh in my head。

Jane ，

Some interesting information， but overall very repetitive。

Reference

google book https://www.google.com/search?tbm=bks&q=How to Decide: Simple Tools for Making Better Choices

hathitrust digital library https://babel.hathitrust.org/cgi/ls?q1=How to Decide: Simple Tools for Making Better Choices&field1=ocr&a=srchls&ft=ft&lmt=ft

The British Library https://bll01.primo.exlibrisgroup.com/discovery/search?query=any,contains,How to Decide: Simple Tools for Making Better Choices&tab=LibraryCatalog&search_scope=Not_BL_Suppress&vid=44BL_INST:BLL01&lang=en&offset=0