The Long Game: China's Grand Strategy to Displace American Order
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- Create Date：2023-02-26 09:19:45
- Update Date：2025-09-06
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- Author：Rush Doshi
- ISBN：0197645488
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Summary
For more than a century， no US adversary or coalition of adversaries - not Nazi Germany， Imperial Japan， or the Soviet Union - has ever reached sixty percent of US GDP。 China is the sole exception， and it is fast emerging into a global superpower that could rival， if not eclipse， the United States。 What does China want， does it have a grand strategy to achieve it， and what should the United States do about it？
In The Long Game， Rush Doshi draws from a rich base of Chinese primary sources， including decades worth of party documents， leaked materials， memoirs by party leaders， and a careful analysis of China's conduct to provide a history of China's grand strategy since the end of the Cold War。 Taking readers behind the Party's closed doors， he uncovers Beijing's long， methodical game to displace America from its hegemonic position in both the East Asia regional and global orders through three sequential strategies of displacement。 Beginning in the 1980s， China focused for two decades on hiding capabilities and biding time。 After the 2008 Global Financial Crisis， it became more assertive regionally， following a policy of actively accomplishing something。 Finally， in the aftermath populist elections of 2016， China shifted to an even more aggressive strategy for undermining US hegemony， adopting the phrase great changes unseen in century。 After charting how China's long game has evolved，
Doshi offers a comprehensive yet asymmetric plan for an effective US response。 Ironically， his proposed approach takes a page from Beijing's own strategic playbook to undermine China's ambitions and strengthen American order without competing dollar-for-dollar， ship-for-ship， or loan-for-loan。
In The Long Game， Rush Doshi draws from a rich base of Chinese primary sources， including decades worth of party documents， leaked materials， memoirs by party leaders， and a careful analysis of China's conduct to provide a history of China's grand strategy since the end of the Cold War。 Taking readers behind the Party's closed doors， he uncovers Beijing's long， methodical game to displace America from its hegemonic position in both the East Asia regional and global orders through three sequential strategies of displacement。 Beginning in the 1980s， China focused for two decades on hiding capabilities and biding time。 After the 2008 Global Financial Crisis， it became more assertive regionally， following a policy of actively accomplishing something。 Finally， in the aftermath populist elections of 2016， China shifted to an even more aggressive strategy for undermining US hegemony， adopting the phrase great changes unseen in century。 After charting how China's long game has evolved，
Doshi offers a comprehensive yet asymmetric plan for an effective US response。 Ironically， his proposed approach takes a page from Beijing's own strategic playbook to undermine China's ambitions and strengthen American order without competing dollar-for-dollar， ship-for-ship， or loan-for-loan。
Reviews
Xiong
，
Rush researched， summarized the overall CCP history and execution records， according to the history and materials over the 30 years， he concluded the Chinese grand strategy is inevitable and doom to execute。American needs to have a 3-step strategy which is exactly is the Biden administration is doing， as a former and current policy， strategy consultant， his vision has a big impact on the U。S strategy。After he wrote this book， Putin invaded Ukraine， which united Europe and America， which makes th Rush researched， summarized the overall CCP history and execution records， according to the history and materials over the 30 years， he concluded the Chinese grand strategy is inevitable and doom to execute。American needs to have a 3-step strategy which is exactly is the Biden administration is doing， as a former and current policy， strategy consultant， his vision has a big impact on the U。S strategy。After he wrote this book， Putin invaded Ukraine， which united Europe and America， which makes the 3-step strategy a reality， and it starts to unfold。Later， it will be on the stalemate stage， and see who makes bigger mistakes。 As a Chinese lived both in US， and China， currently living in US， I would say Rush is a real expert and understand Chinese policy without bias， it is based on history， facts， and data， it has proven to be correct， and let's see how it continues to unfold。 。。。more
Vanika
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A great book if you have a vested interest in the topic。 Otherwise a heavy read。
CAPT VINOD MATKAR
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Amazing insight into the Chinese minds。 I was always wondering why Chinese are up to mischief。 I got my answers in a thoroughly researched book by Doshi。 Hope the Indians and Americans are listening。
Dovaidas Pabiržis
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A comprehensive， highly relevant， and well-structured book。 Sometimes it has a bit too much scientific writing method and repetition。 There is also a lot of analysis from the speeches of Chinese officials， and some parts of it could be omitted。 Not being an expert in the field， I enjoyed the factual rather than the explanatory part of the book。
Nancy
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DECEMBER by Rush Doshi （no photo）Finish date: ecember 2022Genre: non-fiction （audio 18 hr 24 min）Rating: B-Review: The Long Game （ISBN: 97801975527917）Good news: I had to sift the text （Doshi likes to use a waterfall of words。。。） and picked out the "core message" China's grand strategy to displace American order。 It is a pleasure to sweep through years of China-USA relations with such a special guide as Rush Doshi。 He is USA's go-to-guy about China。 I saw him in the news sitting next to Bide DECEMBER by Rush Doshi （no photo）Finish date: ecember 2022Genre: non-fiction （audio 18 hr 24 min）Rating: B-Review: The Long Game （ISBN: 97801975527917）Good news: I had to sift the text （Doshi likes to use a waterfall of words。。。） and picked out the "core message" China's grand strategy to displace American order。 It is a pleasure to sweep through years of China-USA relations with such a special guide as Rush Doshi。 He is USA's go-to-guy about China。 I saw him in the news sitting next to Biden during his meeting with Xi Jinping at the G20。Bad news: Huge book and I found listening to the audio version helped me "push on" each day。 I popped my air buds in after my shower。。。and had Xi Jinping with my smoothie， toast and coffee。 That is all I could absorb。 （1 hr listening）Good news Too much history to go into detail in this short review but let me say ch 1-3 is historical backdrop - ch 5-6 explains how China bided its time blunting USA at every turn （military， politics， economy）。 Now the book gets MORE interesting: ch 7 reveals that China is moving on to building （regional alliances and expanding naval forces）。 Ch 7-13 The words really sink in b/c I'm living in this timeline and the power behind it is NO stranger。。。。it is Xi Jinping！Personal The guiding philosophy of China's foreign policy was "keep a low profile" Well， those days are over and Xi is ready to fight （Taiwan）！ Don't be fooled when you see Xi who resembles Winnie-the-Pooh。。。he is flexing his muscles onder that suit jacket。 He even dismissed Canada's Justin Trudeau as a "boy" at the G20。 This book is so interesting。。。but you have to WANT to read it。 The book reads like a college text…。。the three classifications of this， the four theories of that， the six components of the other thing， Doshi could you have a woven a little bit of a story flow into this to make it interesting。 But I still can use all that I learned to decipher China's "chess moves"。 Believe me， Xi is playing The Long Game！ 。。。more
Connor McGauley
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Academically excellent read for all those interested in Sino US relations。 Very boring if you’re a casual reader
Ben Rogers
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China's Long Game， （view spoiler）[_______ （hide spoiler）] In FlamesThis was a very good book on foreign policy - a topic I have double-downed on over the last 12 months or so。 This book detailed the true plans behind the CCP and it holds up with recent news and details about what is going on inside China。 Important political read。Rush out and get this one！4。7/5 China's Long Game， （view spoiler）[_______ （hide spoiler）] In FlamesThis was a very good book on foreign policy - a topic I have double-downed on over the last 12 months or so。 This book detailed the true plans behind the CCP and it holds up with recent news and details about what is going on inside China。 Important political read。Rush out and get this one！4。7/5 。。。more
Megan
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This is a highly insightful book that uses primary source data from China that you may not always see translated as you do here。 I appreciate that。 The very last section includes what the US should do to counter China's maneuvers whoch were covered in the rest of the book。 Although I like the book， I wish there was more on what the US could do or a breakdown of what it may cost。 I want an action plan， not just the ideal。My main gripe with this book is that it repeats itself ad nauseum。 It is imp This is a highly insightful book that uses primary source data from China that you may not always see translated as you do here。 I appreciate that。 The very last section includes what the US should do to counter China's maneuvers whoch were covered in the rest of the book。 Although I like the book， I wish there was more on what the US could do or a breakdown of what it may cost。 I want an action plan， not just the ideal。My main gripe with this book is that it repeats itself ad nauseum。 It is impossible to miss the point being made。 That can be a good thing， but also an annoyance。That said， the points made were satisfying and well-supported。 I enjoyed Doshi's analysis and use of material。 I would love to see what he thinks of the current layout with the Russian War in Ukraine and joint statements from Biden and Xi coming out of G-20。 International Affairs is an ongoing story。 This book is worth a read。 。。。more
dronehead
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Great content providing a systematic review of China's strategy to overthrow liberal order championed by US。 However， it is poorly written and sounds dry and repetitive at times。 Great content providing a systematic review of China's strategy to overthrow liberal order championed by US。 However， it is poorly written and sounds dry and repetitive at times。 。。。more
Daneel Lynn
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這一本一樣其實是給米國人看的，而且這麼大一本本質上還是說帖，目的就是要確立米國的對中政策。由於是說帖，所以本書雖然厚，但是條理分明綱舉目張，讀起來反而很輕鬆。作者的立論很明白：共匪對美策略是在天安門事件、波灣戰爭、蘇聯解體三連發事件後規劃成形，而且有層次地削弱（米國）→建立（地區霸權）→全球爭霸。兩個分界點分別是金融危機和英國脫歐/川普當選。作者提出立論後，這麼多篇幅主要都是從共匪端蒐集資料，做為各階段大戰略中，政治經濟軍事外交等方面策略規劃與執行的佐證。這部分臺灣讀者反而拜國內就有共匪同路人/傳聲筒之賜，平時就看得到，而且看得很多，所以可以「複習」地很快速，甚至可以驗證作者推論是否到位。像我就覺得共匪這個 long game 在動機面上其實是民族主義累積百年以上的天朝情懷，只要是中國人都會做出類似的迷夢，而且在規劃執行的過程會同時確保當權者的利益，只不過剛好現在是共匪而已。於是說帖看完，最後 50 頁對於不同意見者的辯駁，以及條列式的米國政策建議（同樣反過來以削弱中國、建立印太乃至國際秩序為基本要旨）就顯得更據說服力；而且搞不好有些就是現在進行式。
Brady
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This is a solid 3。5 and I did enjoy it。 The content is very interesting and insightful， but the length and repetition brought it down a star and a half in my opinion。 This book was a dissertation that transitioned to a book， so I felt like the author provided 50 pieces of evidence to prove a single point so that he could defend the dissertation properly。 The result was really a failure of editing， because a lot of the content could have been streamlined and whole chapters removed and combined in This is a solid 3。5 and I did enjoy it。 The content is very interesting and insightful， but the length and repetition brought it down a star and a half in my opinion。 This book was a dissertation that transitioned to a book， so I felt like the author provided 50 pieces of evidence to prove a single point so that he could defend the dissertation properly。 The result was really a failure of editing， because a lot of the content could have been streamlined and whole chapters removed and combined into others。 I walk away with several new perspectives on China’s grand strategy， so overall a positive experience。 。。。more
Tyler Jared
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China sees itself on a path towards “national rejuvenation”， a euphemism for replacing the US as the global superpower。 Rush Doshi lays out the textual evidence， abundant in CCP literature， for how Chinese grand strategy has evolved over the last 40 years in relation to their perception of American strength and power。 Due to the tumultuous last five years， China perceives there to be a moment of strategic opportunity as the West （due to the Trump presidency， COVID， Brexit， etc。） stumbles。 A glob China sees itself on a path towards “national rejuvenation”， a euphemism for replacing the US as the global superpower。 Rush Doshi lays out the textual evidence， abundant in CCP literature， for how Chinese grand strategy has evolved over the last 40 years in relation to their perception of American strength and power。 Due to the tumultuous last five years， China perceives there to be a moment of strategic opportunity as the West （due to the Trump presidency， COVID， Brexit， etc。） stumbles。 A global order led by China will not be rooted in the liberal values the US imperfectly upholds。 It will be one of economic coercion， reduced opportunity， and limited toleration of dissent。 This book is a clear eyed and sobering call to take China’s ascendancy seriously。 Appeasement is likely to incentivize China to perceive the US as bargaining from a position of relative weakness and war is obviously bad and something no one wants。 The best option then is accepting that we must take a page our of their book and engage in asymmetric strategies to blunt their influence while working to re-build and strengthen the things that enable an American led world order。 All of this hinges on our ability to function as a country and retain a sense of optimism in the American experiment。 It is effectively a new Cold War。 China seems to have realized that 35 years ago， so we have some catching up to do。 。。。more
B
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Somewhat dry writing at times， but overall very interesting thesis。
Jacob Hewitt
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This book will give you valid information about the author’s thesis on China’s long-term grand strategy to become the sole world superpower。 But this book is dry。 It reads like a thesis—thoroughly researched and well founded points—but painstaking to read。 The author moves from point to painstaking point， repeating the same arguments over and over， often times spending multiple pages quoting vague political statements from Chinese leaders all to prove that his point is valid to begin with。 I bel This book will give you valid information about the author’s thesis on China’s long-term grand strategy to become the sole world superpower。 But this book is dry。 It reads like a thesis—thoroughly researched and well founded points—but painstaking to read。 The author moves from point to painstaking point， repeating the same arguments over and over， often times spending multiple pages quoting vague political statements from Chinese leaders all to prove that his point is valid to begin with。 I believe your points Mr。 Doshi， and I’m glad you back them up， but by god give me more real-world， tangible things to connect with in the writing。 This should be in a scholarly article， not in book form。 。。。more
David Musgraves
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A very thorough analysis of China’s asymmetric blunting and order building over the last 40-50 years。This was worthwhile， but sort of a slog for me。 It reads a bit like a dissertation， where he is constantly arguing his point against other academic views。
John Ellis
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A comprehensive examination of China's strategy against the United States and its allies。 This book， while frequently repetitive， lays out a compelling framework， drawing on a wide array of official documents （mostly in Chinese） and many that are not publicly available to present analysis of China's behaviours and their integration into its grand strategy。Much of the analysis was fascinating， insightful， and provided a new perspective that was not based on a small number of but rather a signific A comprehensive examination of China's strategy against the United States and its allies。 This book， while frequently repetitive， lays out a compelling framework， drawing on a wide array of official documents （mostly in Chinese） and many that are not publicly available to present analysis of China's behaviours and their integration into its grand strategy。Much of the analysis was fascinating， insightful， and provided a new perspective that was not based on a small number of but rather a significant volume compelling data points。The author's conclusion on engaging with China is particularly clear， in the context of neither accommodating nor changing her， and thus a strategic competition is required。 The author proposes that the US take an asymmetric approach to blunt China's ascendancy， which is consistent with Kevin Rudd's own assessment and suggestions on 'geo strategic competition。' 。。。more
Peter
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Best review and data driven analysis of great power competition I’ve read。 Incredible level of detail while still keeping it relatable to all audiences。 It’s a must read。
Jordan Neben
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The Long Game is a complex but exhaustively researched look into how China's governmental leaders have developed and changed their strategies to first blunt and then displace the United States as a leading global power。 After the end of the Cold War Chinese leaders ceased to see America as a quasi-ally and instead as a threat。 Since thing China has deployed multi-arrayed and multidiscipline asymmetric strategies to weaken American order and build their own order。 What I find most fascinating is The Long Game is a complex but exhaustively researched look into how China's governmental leaders have developed and changed their strategies to first blunt and then displace the United States as a leading global power。 After the end of the Cold War Chinese leaders ceased to see America as a quasi-ally and instead as a threat。 Since thing China has deployed multi-arrayed and multidiscipline asymmetric strategies to weaken American order and build their own order。 What I find most fascinating is all of the Chinese sources the author quotes throughout the book， and their often very clear perspective of recent American history。 。。。more
Matas Maldeikis
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Labai strukturizuotai ir aiškiai apie Kinijos planą užvaldyt pasaulį。 Bet jie pralaimės。
Jonah Lo
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An extremely well -researched argument about Chinese grand strategy with lots of original sources。Where I was a little skeptical was the geographical frames of analysis - Asia （Central， East， South） as China's "region" muddles argumentation。 E。g。 is building a blue water Navy truly regional order building if one factors in Central Asia？ What about all those Central Asian-centric organizations like SCO。More argumentation of how China imagines Asia would have gotten 5 stars。 An extremely well -researched argument about Chinese grand strategy with lots of original sources。Where I was a little skeptical was the geographical frames of analysis - Asia （Central， East， South） as China's "region" muddles argumentation。 E。g。 is building a blue water Navy truly regional order building if one factors in Central Asia？ What about all those Central Asian-centric organizations like SCO。More argumentation of how China imagines Asia would have gotten 5 stars。 。。。more
Hong Zhang
，
This is a very well-researched book。 It can be used as a reference book for learning what the PRC's ruling party has been doing to undermine the rule-based world order in the past few decades。My reservation about this book is that it gets into a lot of details， which is great for reference but does not clarify the nature of the CCP that determines inevitable malice behaviors。 The CCP is not a normal political party with a stable political ideology but a mafia-like organization that does not beli This is a very well-researched book。 It can be used as a reference book for learning what the PRC's ruling party has been doing to undermine the rule-based world order in the past few decades。My reservation about this book is that it gets into a lot of details， which is great for reference but does not clarify the nature of the CCP that determines inevitable malice behaviors。 The CCP is not a normal political party with a stable political ideology but a mafia-like organization that does not believe in rule of law domestically and rule-based international order。 It essentially believes in the law of the jungle and a highly hierarchical world。 Maintaining its power is above everything else and it was to climb the hierarchy as high as possible。 The rule-based world order aspired by the free world is a threat to them。 They will do whatever is beneficial to their power if they feel they are capable of doing it and will disregard any internal laws。 Their staunch support for Putin's slaughter in Ukraine demonstrates this。 If we always keep the mafia nature of the CCP in mind， it is not difficult to understand its behaviors。 The strategy to deal with it should be based on this fundamental understanding。 。。。more
Dale
，
This is a really good look at past and present state of play between these two super powers。 Very in-depth analysis that takes into consideration the historical context as well as all the elements of national power; diplomatic， informational， military， and economic。 A very good analysis of the PRC naval evolution and possible strategy while taking into consideration desired end states and current anti-access / area denial capabilities。 As a military planner I appreciated the author's ability to This is a really good look at past and present state of play between these two super powers。 Very in-depth analysis that takes into consideration the historical context as well as all the elements of national power; diplomatic， informational， military， and economic。 A very good analysis of the PRC naval evolution and possible strategy while taking into consideration desired end states and current anti-access / area denial capabilities。 As a military planner I appreciated the author's ability to frame suggested actions within the end， ways， means construct。 。。。more
Changho Sohn
，
A great book that delves through the trove of Chinese official documents and extracts relevant policy direction as to where China is heading。 There is no such book on the market that pulls off such a job。 It is also a book that requires a basic grasp of China's contemporary history and the relevant world history as well to understand the real deal that the book offers。 A great book that delves through the trove of Chinese official documents and extracts relevant policy direction as to where China is heading。 There is no such book on the market that pulls off such a job。 It is also a book that requires a basic grasp of China's contemporary history and the relevant world history as well to understand the real deal that the book offers。 。。。more
Horace Derwent
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。。。more
Nathan Hoyt
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Very enlightening on the high-level plans and the general world-view。 I gained respect for why and even some of the methodologies being used。
Kellen
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Assigned reading for work。 It’s a slog to get through。 Same points made over and over。
Peter Vegel
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The bad: The book reads like a Ph。D。 dissertation: there's a lot of repetition of the theoretical frameworks that get used， which sometimes get a bit tedious or make you want to skim through some parts。 Also， I found the last chapter on possible US strategies to deal with a rising China superfluous。The good: the book makes a clear and strong argument， using original sources， on China's grand strategy viz-a-viz the perceived strength of the US。 It shows how China went through three distinct stage The bad: The book reads like a Ph。D。 dissertation: there's a lot of repetition of the theoretical frameworks that get used， which sometimes get a bit tedious or make you want to skim through some parts。 Also， I found the last chapter on possible US strategies to deal with a rising China superfluous。The good: the book makes a clear and strong argument， using original sources， on China's grand strategy viz-a-viz the perceived strength of the US。 It shows how China went through three distinct stages of applying its economic， military and political might to fit different grand strategies。 The author goes into enough depth so the reader can learn about some complicated processes， without making it too technical or make's one lose the bigger picture。 。。。more
Peter Hansen
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This review has been hidden because it contains spoilers。 To view it， click here。 Brilliant analysis。Ch 1: what is grand strategy？ A coherent body of thought that guides the state’s action。-what is hegemonic order？ A form of control by a hegemonic state to regulate and control subordinates。 Done by coercive capacity， consensual inducements， and legitimacy。- strategies to displace a hegemon:1 blunt the hegemony’s power2 build alternative forms of controlDo it in sequenceCh 2: the party leads everything-Leninism has no checks and balances， all power is concentrated at the top。 Brilliant analysis。Ch 1: what is grand strategy？ A coherent body of thought that guides the state’s action。-what is hegemonic order？ A form of control by a hegemonic state to regulate and control subordinates。 Done by coercive capacity， consensual inducements， and legitimacy。- strategies to displace a hegemon:1 blunt the hegemony’s power2 build alternative forms of controlDo it in sequenceCh 2: the party leads everything-Leninism has no checks and balances， all power is concentrated at the top。 They claim this makes it efficient。-The core theme animating the CCP is nationalist， not communist。 The great rejuvenation of the Chinese ppl is not a communist slogan。-Leninism is the tool to achieve this great rejuvenation。-all key foreign policy decisions are made by the party， not the state-Grand strategy is set at the very top of the party， paramount leader level -The party communicates to itself via speeches and texts -Doshi’s method is the use of a hierarchy of primary sources listed on page 42Part 1: 1989 to 2008 Hiding Capabilities and Biding Time Ch 3: New Cold Wars have Begun - The trifecta and the new American threat -China’s traumatic trifecta:1。） Tianaman Square 2。） The gulf war 3。） Soviet Collapse -These events lead China to focus on the US as the number one security threat。 Deng and other Chinese leaders understood that the US was trying to bring about peaceful evolution。-Phase 1 of China’s Grand Strategy: bide and hide While the relative power differentials between the US and China were high in US’a favor， China should hide its growing strength so as not to alarm the US who could build a balancing coalition。 When balance of power changes， can move to phase 2。-Phase 1: Blunting 1。） Focus on sea denial to stop US dominating waters near China 2。） Join regional institutions and sew dysfunction in them， constrain US within them， use to them to re-assure neighbors of China’s benign intentions。3。） secure most favored nation trading status with the US - reduces discretionary use of American economic power。 Also join WTO。Ch 4: Implementing Military Blunting: Grasping the assassins mace -Grand strategy principle: whatever the enemy is afraid of， we develop that。 To blunt US military develop sea denial strategy， anti access/area denial- Develop asymmetric weapons that are cheap and blunt American power。 -PRC developed 3 denial platforms:1。） subs - built to operate in China’s coastal waters 2。） mines - cheap way to deny US access to coastal waters3。） missiles - developed asbm carrier killers -China could have developed aircraft carriers but held off since it didn’t fit with blunting phase strategy。 Ch 5: Implementing Political Blunting: Demonstrate Benign Intentions -China undermined all US attempts at order building in Asia by joining organizations then working against them—APEC and others -China supported east Asia institutions that lacked US presence， ex。 Shanghai Cooperation Organization & APEC +3-Also used regional orgs to project China’s benign intentions。 Good neighbor policy existed to blunt encirclement while China was weak。Ch 6: implementing Economic blunting: permanent normal trade relations -China’s economic blunting strategy was to blunt American efforts to manipulate chinas economic dependence on the US in ways that could harm China。-The blunting tools were: get most favored nation MFN status for China， and to accede to the WTO-MFN + WTO accession would tie American hands in regard to use of trade as an economic coercion tool。 Limit US use of: trade sanctions， tariffs， USTR section 301 investigations， and tech restrictions-Chinese leaders were aware of the risks of this type of economic liberalization， and that US’s strategic idea was that it would lead to political liberalization and peaceful evolution。 CCP took note and stood up counter measures。-China used APEC to get developing nation status which would transfer to WTO and make it less onerous to join。-All in all， Econ blunting strategy reduced US Econ leverage over China。Part II: 2009-2016 “Actively Accomplish Something”: Building as China’s Second Displacement StrategyCh 7: The Financial Crisis & The Dawn of Building: A Change in the Balance of Power -Long history of China longing for a multipolar world in official party speeches and docs。 Read: diminishment of US power -Global Financial Crisis causes China to reevaluate the relative power differentials。 It then moves from blunting strategy to order building strategy in Asia。 -Building strategy begins under Hu， not Xi。 Hu announced end of bide and hide and need to ‘actively accomplish something。’-PRC order building in Asia: BRI， Asian Infrastructure Investment Bank， Community of Common Destiny-All these things lead to the Great Rejuvenation of the Chinese Nation。Ch。 8: Implementing Military Building: Make More Offensive Moves -After GFC China turns from military blunting to military building the foundations for regional hegemony。-Focus ways to build to protect China’s maritime interests and secure resource flows from overseas。-2012 China builds blue water navy — aircraft carriers， more surface vessels， mine counter measures， amphibious warfare capability， marine transport crafts and builds out overseas facilities， including Djibouti and other supply bases Ch。 9: Implementing Political Building: Establish Regional Architecture-During blunting phase China played spoiler in Asian institutions and kept them weak and thin。 Post GFC by contrast China went on an institution building spree and sought to thicken those it led。-PRC shifts focus to “peripheral diplomacy” ie。 building multilateral orgs in Asia that would reflect China’s interests。 Called this Community of Common Destiny = China’s Asian Order -China built two major regional orgs 1 AIIB 2 CICA-AIIB offers China 3 things:1 coercive capacity to constrain neighbors by withholding funding 2 allows China to set development and Econ governance rules 3 Provides Chinese leadership with legitimacy。 States will align their foreign policy more closely with China’s to gain access to capital。-CICA used to develop a China led Asian Security Framework that is used to oppose US security alliances。 CICA reflects Chinese and Russian security goals。 CICA can limit members ability to cooperate with the US and it can help secure BRI projects that China sees as a global public good。Ch 10: Implementing Economic Building: Aboard our development train -China wants to use its economic power over infrastructure and finance for the purpose of geo-strategic ends ie。 it seeks to create economic leverage for political ends -China’s economic order in Asia makes other regional states asymmetrically dependent on China due to its size while giving China more freedom to maneuver and constrain others。-Two main economic order building bodies: bri and credit rating agencies + SWIFT alternative -BRI- Most BRI projects are loss making， which is okay for CCP because the goal is to create asymmetric economic leverage， not profit。 --BRI creates ports， choke points to exclude western countries and many have dual use military purposes in mind。 Can help China defend its sea lanes。 -China makes 3 main attempts to fight US financial hegemony 1 Promote trade in RMB to weaken dollar 2 Build alternatives to SWIFT system 3 Build alternative to big 3 credit rating agencies -Goal is global economic multipolarityPart III: 2017-Present - Global Expansion as China’s Third Displacement Strategy。 “Great Changes Unseen in a Century” Ch 11: American Decline and China’s Global Ambition。 “Toward the World’s Center Stage”-Trump + Brexit + COVID-19 Mark and then solidify shift in China’s grand strategy。 These events confirm the west is in terminal decline。-2017 @ 19th party Congress Xi gives 3 hour speech outlining the new phase - beyond blunting and building - the concept is “great changes unseen in a century” meaning the global balance of power is now shifted enough that China can directly contest the US for superpower status。-The plan to achieve the great rejuvenation of the Chinese nation = replace the US as the world’s most powerful state by 2049 - the CCP’s centenary -Current situation provide risks and opportunities， Xi believes the opportunities outweigh the risks and time is on China’s side -US remains biggest impediment， China still fears containment and encirclement Ch 12: The ways and means of China’s global expansion: Standing Tall and Seeing Far -Sweden story—wine for our friends， shotguns for our enemies。-China’s list of demands on Australia are blueprint for the Chinese order。 Reduce foreign investment screening， tolerate Huawei， rollback foreign interference legislation， end human rights criticisms， change South China Sea stance， join the belt and Road initiative， muzzle the media， think tanks and officials that China dislikes。 Or else face the economic consequences。-3 ways and means of China’s global strategy 1。） Beijing puts forward a liberal norms in global institutions this is at the political level2） economic level: seize the fourth industrial revolution and limit United States financial power3） military level: acquire global capabilities/force posture and build new global support infrastructure-Community of shared future for mankind is the grand strategic concept that defines China’s actions since 2017。 This envisions China providing public goods to create a loose political block that supports China globally。1。） China views moment since trumps election as “period of strategic opportunity“ to replace a retreating America as leader in many international organizations and to insert its own illiberal norms。 China has also exported illiberalism and its development model to the Third World。 2。） China sees winning the fourth industrial revolution as key to leapfrogging the US and laying the base for its future superpower status。 Already out invests the US 10 times on quantum computing。 China also wants to set global tech standards。 3。） expanding military expeditionary capabilities to safeguard natural resource flows， ceilings， energy resources。Ch。 13: an asymmetric strategy for US China competition-Great power contest is back， the United States must now use some of the tools that China used against us。 We need to engage in asymmetric blunting and order building。-asymmetric blunting is blunting Chinese power at a cost that is less than it took the Chinese to establish/build the order。 Some examples:-provide regional allies with A2D area denial capabilities-Undermined China’s efforts to build overseas basesReport on belt and Road initiative corruption， build belt and -Road initiative funding alternativesClose tech loopholes and brain drain out of ChinaWashington and its allies should join Chinese multilateral organizations and play spoiler-The United States should then build/rebuild the American order:-Harden critical facilities and get more dispersed for example the Pacific deterrence initiative– build resilient information infrastructure– maintain dollar hegemony– audit supply chains and do more research and development– there is no chance of a grand bargain with China。 China will agree well week and then discard the agreement wind strong enough– no attempts at peaceful evolution or manipulating Chinese domestic politics will work。 These efforts will backfire and it is impossible to do given the amount of control the CCP has。 。。。more
jt
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Boring and repetitive。 Don't tell me what you're going to tell me， just tell me–and write it well。 Boring and repetitive。 Don't tell me what you're going to tell me， just tell me–and write it well。 。。。more
Gert
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Very interesting work， especially in light of the current Russia conflict。 Detailed and well elaborated arguments， sometimes a bit too focussed on his goal to prove his thesis which does not always increase readability。
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