How Civil Wars Start: And How to Stop Them
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- Create Date：2021-12-19 00:19:12
- Update Date：2025-09-07
- Status：finish
- Author：Barbara F. Walter
- ISBN：B095MMDWBR
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Summary
A leading political scientist examines the dramatic rise in violent extremism around the globe and sounds the alarm on the increasing likelihood of a second civil war in the United States
Political violence rips apart several towns in southwest Texas。 A far-right militia plots to kidnap the governor of Michigan and try her for treason。 An armed mob of Trump supporters and conspiracy theorists storms the U。S。 Capitol。 Are these isolated incidents？ Or is this the start of something bigger？ Barbara F。 Walter has spent her career studying civil conflict in places like Iraq and Sri Lanka， but now she has become increasingly worried about our own country。
Perhaps surprisingly， both autocracies and healthy democracies are largely immune from civil war; it's the countries in the middle ground that are most vulnerable。 And this is where more and more countries， including the United States， are finding themselves today。
Over the last two decades， the number of active civil wars around the world has almost doubled。 Walter reveals the warning signs--where wars tend to start， who initiates them， what triggers them--and why some countries tip over into conflict while others remain stable。 Drawing on the latest international research and lessons from over twenty countries， Walter identifies the crucial risk factors， from democratic backsliding to factionalization and the politics of resentment。 A civil war today won't look like America in the 1860s， Spain in the 1930s， or Russia in the 1920s。 It will begin with sporadic acts of violence and terror， accelerated by social media。 It will sneak up on us and leave us wondering how we could have been so blind。
In this urgent and disturbing book， Walter redefines civil war for a new age， providing the framework we need to confront the danger we now face--and the knowledge to stop it before it's too late。
Political violence rips apart several towns in southwest Texas。 A far-right militia plots to kidnap the governor of Michigan and try her for treason。 An armed mob of Trump supporters and conspiracy theorists storms the U。S。 Capitol。 Are these isolated incidents？ Or is this the start of something bigger？ Barbara F。 Walter has spent her career studying civil conflict in places like Iraq and Sri Lanka， but now she has become increasingly worried about our own country。
Perhaps surprisingly， both autocracies and healthy democracies are largely immune from civil war; it's the countries in the middle ground that are most vulnerable。 And this is where more and more countries， including the United States， are finding themselves today。
Over the last two decades， the number of active civil wars around the world has almost doubled。 Walter reveals the warning signs--where wars tend to start， who initiates them， what triggers them--and why some countries tip over into conflict while others remain stable。 Drawing on the latest international research and lessons from over twenty countries， Walter identifies the crucial risk factors， from democratic backsliding to factionalization and the politics of resentment。 A civil war today won't look like America in the 1860s， Spain in the 1930s， or Russia in the 1920s。 It will begin with sporadic acts of violence and terror， accelerated by social media。 It will sneak up on us and leave us wondering how we could have been so blind。
In this urgent and disturbing book， Walter redefines civil war for a new age， providing the framework we need to confront the danger we now face--and the knowledge to stop it before it's too late。
Reviews
Angie Boyter
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3+/4- A truly scary discussion of the risk factors that lead to civil wars and how to avoid or correct themAs someone who has been paying attention to the news for the past few years， I welcomed this book by a respected political scientist whose specialty is civil wars， hopefully to allay my unease about my country today （I wish！） or at least to give advice on how to avoid further decline of civility and possible civil war。 The first part of the book explores worldwide what conditions exist in c 3+/4- A truly scary discussion of the risk factors that lead to civil wars and how to avoid or correct themAs someone who has been paying attention to the news for the past few years， I welcomed this book by a respected political scientist whose specialty is civil wars， hopefully to allay my unease about my country today （I wish！） or at least to give advice on how to avoid further decline of civility and possible civil war。 The first part of the book explores worldwide what conditions exist in countries where civil wars arise， with an emphasis on the twentieth century。 This is an excellent exposition， especially the discussion of communist or communist-leaning countries during the Cold War and the differences among them， nuances that were not brought out by the news during that period。 Central to this section of the book is the concept of anocracies， which “are neither full autocracies nor democracies but something in between”。 The author uses the Polity Score， a measure that employs thirty-eight variables to measure how democratic or autocratic a country is at any given time on a 21-point scale from -10 to +10。 Anocracies score between -5 and +5。 It was rather shocking to find that the US does not rank as high as I believe most Americans would expect。 Not surprisingly， anocracies are the most fertile grounds for civil uprising。 A particular factor present when civil wars occur is factionalism， in which political parties break down along ethnic or religious identity rather than political ideology。 As many as 75 percent of the civil wars since the end of the Cold War were brought about by such factions。Walter also points out how civil unrest in the twentieth century differed from the past， especially the role of social media。 After this excellent， albeit disturbing， presentation of the factors present during civil unrest， the second half of the book opens with the chapter “How Close Are We？”。 Pretty close， Walter argues， quite convincingly。 She goes on to make recommendations on how we can prevent it from happening here。 This part of the book I found less satisfactory， partly because if the answers were easy there would likely not be so many civil wars but especially because her political views intrude excessively。 For example， she calls for more gun control， more federal involvement instead of state control over many items， and limits on free speech in social media。 There is little or no suggestion to look at what legitimate concerns might exist that extremists can tap into if the authorities pay no attention to them。 So the book ended on a down note for me， but the first half is definitely worth your attention。 If we wake up to the danger and work together despite our political leanings， religion， or ethnicity， we CAN preserve democracy and， as Walter says “live up to our founding motto---E Pluribus Unum---…[and] become one。”I received an advance review copy of this book from NetGalley and the publisher。 。。。more
J Earl
，
How Civil Wars Start by Barbara F Walter is essential reading for anyone who has the uneasy feeling that we might be approaching a civil war but can't put their finger on how or why。 Admittedly some readers， those who support the recent coup attempt， will feel their side has been "unjustly" singled out。 And for some readers in the US their warped sense of exceptionalism will let them dismiss the entire field as not being applicable here。 But for those of us who actually care about trying to make How Civil Wars Start by Barbara F Walter is essential reading for anyone who has the uneasy feeling that we might be approaching a civil war but can't put their finger on how or why。 Admittedly some readers， those who support the recent coup attempt， will feel their side has been "unjustly" singled out。 And for some readers in the US their warped sense of exceptionalism will let them dismiss the entire field as not being applicable here。 But for those of us who actually care about trying to make the democracy better rather than destroy it， the warning signs are made crystal clear and some prescriptive suggestions are offered for avoiding it。I'm not sure I can accurately summarize the many aspects of what can make a society or a government ripe for civil war so I won't try。 I can say that for every example she cites from other civil wars she boils the essence of what happened down so we can see where the similarities are in our own country。 That is， if one is open to trying to stop the civil war and not on the side of overthrowing democracy in the country。I found most of her prescriptive ideas valuable， especially the ones related to the form of government， namely the electoral college （get rid of it， it has outlasted its purpose） and the Senate。 A couple of the social media-based ideas are a little more problematic for me。 I don't disagree with all of it but would want to see a detailed concept before getting on board with too much banning of speech， though I have no problem banning things that are demonstrably false being promoted as true。Highly recommended and a good starting point for both understanding and beginning to take steps to thwart the current attempts to overthrow democracy。Reviewed from a copy made available by the publisher via NetGalley。 。。。more
Ron Frampton
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